Auburn Tigers vs Vanderbilt Commodores Picks and Predictions November 2nd 2024

Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt Vie to Fluster Auburn

Vanderbilt will take another shot at becoming bowl-eligible this Saturday when they head to Auburn for an important Southeastern Conference (SEC) clash. After coming close to upsetting then-No. 5 Texas last week, the Commodores are eager to get back to winning ways against a Tigers team coming off a confidence-boosting victory.

Vanderbilt’s Bowl Eligibility Quest

The Commodores (5-3, 2-2 SEC) have seen significant progress under head coach Clark Lea. Despite their 27-24 loss to Texas, Vanderbilt has shown resilience, putting up competitive performances and growing stronger throughout the season. A win over Auburn would make the Commodores bowl-eligible for the first time under Lea and help solidify their standing within the SEC.

Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt’s playmaking quarterback, has become a key figure in the team’s improvement. Pavia brings versatility to the Commodores’ offense with his ability to extend plays both in the air and on the ground. He has quickly become a familiar name for Auburn fans, having led a decisive victory over the Tigers while playing for New Mexico State last season. In that game, Pavia threw for three touchdowns, showcasing the dynamic playmaking that has now become the backbone of Vanderbilt’s offense.

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Pavia’s Past Performance Against Auburn

The game that stands out for Auburn’s coaching staff is Pavia’s performance in New Mexico State’s 31-10 win over the Tigers last year. In that upset, Pavia went 19-for-28 passing for 201 yards and three touchdowns, adding another 35 yards on the ground. Tight end Eli Stowers, now also at Vanderbilt, contributed with a touchdown reception in that game.

With Pavia now at Vanderbilt and Jerry Kill, his former head coach, acting as an offensive analyst, the Commodores are in a strong position to bring their offensive success to the SEC. Vanderbilt’s head coach, Clark Lea, has tailored the offense to maximize Pavia’s unique strengths, knowing firsthand the chaos he can create for opposing defenses.

Auburn head coach Hugh Freeze is well aware of the threat Pavia poses, admitting, “I’m sick of seeing that quarterback. I’ve had enough of him.” Freeze highlighted Pavia’s mobility, intelligence, and ability to capitalize on defensive lapses as areas of concern for Auburn.

Auburn’s Defensive Stalwart Amid Turnover Woes

Auburn (3-5, 1-4 SEC) put an end to their four-game losing streak with a solid 24-10 victory at Kentucky last week, largely thanks to a dominant defensive showing. However, turnovers remain an issue for the Tigers, who rank 125th nationally in turnover margin (minus-9). Despite these challenges, Auburn’s defense has held strong, allowing just 19.5 points per game—ranking them 26th in the country.

The defensive unit, led by linebackers and a solid secondary, excels at keeping offenses in check, but their vulnerability to turnovers could be an opening for Pavia and Vanderbilt’s offense. Head coach Clark Lea acknowledged the strength of Auburn’s defense, noting,

“Defensively, they’re fast and physical and they cover you up. Their forced incompletion rate is among the best in the country. It’s a group that plays with an identity, plays with an edge.”

Lea emphasized that Vanderbilt must work to create space on offense, a task that may be challenging against Auburn’s aggressive defenders. But with Pavia’s agility and Vanderbilt’s improved receiving corps, the Commodores could have an advantage in exploiting breakdowns in coverage, especially if they succeed in drawing Auburn’s defenders out of position.

Key Matchups to Watch

1. Diego Pavia vs. Auburn Defense: Pavia’s ability to maneuver under pressure will be tested by Auburn’s defense. Auburn’s speed on defense could be a challenge for Pavia’s improvisational style, and the Tigers will look to keep him contained in the pocket.
2. Vanderbilt’s Receiving Corps vs. Auburn Secondary: With Eli Stowers adding size and versatility to the passing game, Vanderbilt’s receivers must find ways to exploit Auburn’s coverage. Stowers, along with Pavia’s precision passing, has the potential to stretch Auburn’s secondary, opening up potential downfield opportunities.
3. Auburn’s Run Game vs. Vanderbilt’s Front Seven: Auburn’s running back Jarquez Hunter, who rushed for 183 yards against Vanderbilt last year, will be a central part of Auburn’s offensive game plan. If Auburn establishes a run game, it could open up passing lanes and give them control over the tempo, especially if they can keep Pavia and Vanderbilt’s offense off the field.

Prediction: Vanderbilt 28, Auburn 24

With both teams fighting to make the most of their seasons, Saturday’s game promises to be a hard-fought SEC matchup. Vanderbilt’s recent performances and the confidence brought by Pavia’s familiarity with Auburn’s defense could give the Commodores the edge they need. Auburn’s defense may make it difficult for Vanderbilt’s offense to get comfortable, but if Pavia can recreate his success against the Tigers, Vanderbilt could leave with bowl eligibility secured and a renewed sense of momentum.