Auburn Tigers vs New Mexico Lobos Picks and Predictions September 14th 2024

ESPN2 will be covering the week three non-conference matchup between the Auburn Tigers and New Mexico Lobos, set to kick off at 7:30 ET from Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn. The Tigers are favored by -28.5 points, with the over/under line at 61.5 points. Auburn is 1-1 on the season, while New Mexico is looking for their first win, coming in at 0-2. The money line odds have Auburn at -5077 and New Mexico at +1538. For a deeper understanding of how these odds can impact your bets, check out our Football Betting Guide.

New Mexico vs. Auburn Key Information

• Teams: Lobos at Tigers
• Where: Jordan-Hare Stadium Auburn
• Date: Saturday, September 14th
• Betting Odds AUBRN -5077 | NMX +1538 O/U 61.5

The Lobos Can Win If…

New Mexico is looking to pick up their first win of the season after dropping their first two games. In their most recent matchup, the Lobos faced off against Arizona on the road. Despite being +28.5 point underdogs, New Mexico managed to cover the spread, as the game ended with a 61-39 score. The over/under line was set at 60.5 points, and the teams combined for 100 points, surpassing the total.

The Lobos were tied 14-14 after the first quarter, and they trailed 27-24 at halftime. However, Arizona pulled away in the third quarter, outscoring New Mexico 21-7. The Lobos added 8 points in the fourth quarter, but Arizona put up 13 to secure the win.

Devon Dampier led New Mexico’s offense in their 61-39 loss to Arizona, throwing for 260 yards and three touchdowns. Dampier connected on 57.1% of his passes, but he also threw two interceptions and ended the game with a passer rating of 79.46. Luke Wysong was his top target, catching eight passes for 129 yards.

The Lobos’ offense put up 470 yards of total offense, with 210 yards coming on the ground. Dampier also led the team in rushing, with 130 yards on 15 carries, including two rushing touchdowns.

New Mexico’s defense will look to bounce back after giving up 361 total yards to Arizona in their last game. The Lobos allowed 188 rushing yards and one touchdown on the ground, but they were more effective against the pass, limiting Arizona to 173 passing yards on 18 completions. New Mexico’s defense forced one interception in the game.

• Through their last three regular season contests, New Mexico has a record of 0-3. Across this span, their ATS record sits at 3-0 to go along with an over-under mark of 3-0.
• Over their last ten regular season games, the New Mexico Lobos have gone 2-8 straight up. Against the spread, New Mexico went 6-4 in these games and finished with an over-under mark of 8-2.

The Tigers Can Win If…

Auburn is looking to bounce back after a disappointing 21-14 loss to California in their most recent game. The Tigers, who were -12 point favorites at home, not only lost but also failed to cover the spread. The game’s combined score of 35 points fell short of the 52.5-point over/under line.

The Tigers were tied 7-7 after the first quarter, but California outscored them 7-0 in the second quarter, giving Auburn a 14-7 deficit at halftime. After a scoreless third quarter, the Tigers managed to tie the game at 14-14 in the fourth, but California scored again, and Auburn was unable to respond.

Auburn’s offense struggled in their 21-14 loss to California, with four interceptions from quarterback Payton Thorne. Despite throwing for 165 yards, Thorne completed just 51.9% of his passes and ended the game with a passer rating of 43.52. Cam Coleman was his top target, catching two passes for 53 yards.

The Tigers’ offense managed to gain 286 yards in total, with 121 yards coming from the rushing game. Jarquez Hunter led the team in rushing with 68 yards on 12 carries. Auburn’s offense will need to be more efficient and protect the ball better in their next game to get back on track.

Auburn’s defense is looking to bounce back after allowing 334 total yards and 21 points in their most recent game. The Tigers gave up 233 passing yards, with California completing 25 of 36 pass attempts against them. On the ground, Auburn’s defense was more effective, holding California to 101 rushing yards on 33 carries. Overall, the Tigers allowed two passing touchdowns in the game.

• Through their last three regular season contests, Auburn has a record of 1-2. Against the spread, they have a strong mark of 2-1 along with an over-under record of 2-1.
• Through their last ten regular season contests, Auburn has a record of 5-5. Across these games, their ATS record was just 6-4, while posting an over-under record of 5-5.

The Lean

Our projection for the Auburn vs. New Mexico game is a 39-23 win for Auburn. With Auburn being -28.5 point favorites, we like New Mexico to cover the spread in this one.

For the over/under, the line is set at 61.5 points, and with our projection of 62 total points, we recommend taking the over as the best play for this matchup.

Once you’ve made your picks, it’s crucial to understand how odds affect your potential winnings. Visit our NCAAF Odds page for more information.

Auburn Aims to Simplify Strategy and Cut Mistakes Ahead of New Mexico Showdown

After a tough loss filled with turnovers, Auburn University is ready to hit the reset button as they gear up to host New Mexico this Saturday. Head coach Hugh Freeze is focused on simplifying the Tigers’ offensive playbook to clean up the mistakes and get the team back on track.

Auburn’s Turnover Woes

Last week’s 21-14 loss to Cal was a frustrating one for Auburn (1-1), with five turnovers—four of them interceptions by quarterback Payton Thorne—proving to be the game-changer. These errors stalled their momentum and left them facing difficult third-down situations all night. Coach Hugh Freeze didn’t shy away from the blame, admitting that the offense might have been overloaded with too many plays.

“We probably threw a little too much at them,” Freeze said. “But at the same time, we missed some simple things that could’ve kept us ahead of the chains. We can’t survive in those third-and-longs.”

A Simpler Game Plan

Freeze’s solution is clear: simplify the offense. By focusing on the fundamentals, Auburn hopes to cut down on mistakes and see if these issues are just early-season hiccups or something more concerning. The goal? Fewer turnovers and better execution.

The streamlined playbook should also help Auburn avoid those painful third-and-long situations, which played a huge role in their loss to Cal.

Who’s Starting at Quarterback?

Despite Thorne’s rough game, Freeze isn’t pulling the plug on him just yet. Still, backup Hank Brown will get some extra practice reps this week, signaling that the coaching staff wants to be prepared in case things don’t improve.

Freeze put it bluntly: “We’re not talented enough to play badly and still win.” The message is clear: Auburn has no room for error if they want to turn this season around.

Thorne’s under pressure to bounce back and prove he can lead the Tigers, but he’s not the only one feeling the heat.

New Mexico’s Defensive Struggles

On the other side, New Mexico (0-2) has had its own share of struggles. After two losses to Montana State (35-31) and Arizona (61-39), the Lobos are reeling, especially on defense. They’ve had a tough time containing big plays, which has left head coach Bronco Mendenhall scratching his head.

“I didn’t expect us to give up that many big plays, that often,” Mendenhall admitted. “I thought we were past that.”

A Rebuild in Progress

Mendenhall has his work cut out for him. New Mexico hasn’t had more than four wins in a season since 2016, and rebuilding this program is no small task. Despite their rough start, Mendenhall is encouraged by the attitude of his players.

“They’re hungry, eager, and resilient,” he said. “That’s been the fun part. I love that about them.”

New Mexico’s Key Player: Devon Dampier

If New Mexico has any chance of pulling off an upset, it’ll likely be thanks to dual-threat quarterback Devon Dampier. He’s been the Lobos’ standout performer, leading the team in both passing (432 yards) and rushing (164 yards), while accounting for seven touchdowns so far.

Dampier’s ability to make plays with both his arm and his legs will be key, but with the defense giving up big plays, it’ll be a tall order for New Mexico to keep Auburn’s offense in check.

Game Outlook: Execution Is Key for Auburn

For Auburn, this game is all about fixing what went wrong last week. By sticking to a simplified game plan and focusing on execution, they have a good shot at bouncing back. For New Mexico, the challenge is clear: improve defensively and find a way to slow down the Tigers.

Freeze’s focus on simplifying things should help Auburn control the pace of the game, especially against a New Mexico defense that’s struggled mightily. With Thorne looking to rebound from his rough outing, this game could be the confidence boost Auburn needs moving forward.

If you’re already familiar with football betting basics, take a look at our NCAAF Picks to make smarter wagers.

Conclusion

Auburn is the clear favorite in this matchup, and their plan to reduce mistakes and keep things simple makes them even more dangerous against a rebuilding New Mexico team. As the Tigers try to shake off their tough loss to Cal, they’ll need to execute their streamlined strategy with precision. Meanwhile, New Mexico has its own battle—tightening up their defense and finding some consistency in their rebuild. Both teams have something to prove, but Auburn has the upper hand as they aim to get their season back on track.