Louisiana State Tigers vs Mississippi Rebels Picks and Predictions October 12th 2024

ABC will be covering this week seven matchup between the Ole Miss Rebels and LSU Tigers, set to kick off at 7:30 ET from Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge. Ole Miss comes in with a 5-1 record, while LSU is 4-1 on the season. The Rebels are the -3.5-point favorites on the road, and the over/under line is currently at 64.5 points.

Ole Miss vs. LSU Key Information

Ole Miss enters Week 7 against LSU with a 5-1 record. They are ranked 5th in our power rankings and have a 100% chance of being bowl-eligible. However, their chances of winning the Southeastern stand at 13.1%. The Rebels have the 8th best odds to make the playoff at 56.2%, and they rank 5th in the country with a 13.2% chance of reaching the national championship game.

Against the spread, Ole Miss is 4-1 this season, with a +36.5 average scoring margin. They are 2-0 ATS on the road and 2-1 at home. The Rebels have been favored in five of their six games, going 4-1 ATS as the favorite.

This week’s over/under line is set at 64.5 points. Ole Miss’s over/under record is 0-5, with their games averaging 51.5 points. Their average over/under line has been 60.2 points, and they have fallen short of the total by an average of 13.6 points per game.

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Ole Miss enters week 7 with one of the top passing offenses in college football, ranking second in passing yards per game with 372.8. They are also ninth in passing completions, averaging 22.8 per game. Overall, they are ninth in scoring, putting up 44 points per game, and we have them ranked as the 10th best offense in the country heading into their matchup with LSU.

Jaxson Dart has thrown for 2,100 yards and has a passer rating of 134. He has completed 73.4% of his passes, throwing 13 touchdowns and just two interceptions. On the ground, Ole Miss is averaging 204.7 rushing yards per game. Henry Parrish Jr. leads the team with 570 rushing yards, nine touchdowns, and an average of 6 yards per carry. Tre Harris has 885 receiving yards on 52 catches, with five touchdowns.

Ole Miss’s defense has been impressive, allowing just 7.5 points per game, ranking third nationally. They’ve also given up only 67.8 rushing yards per game, the fourth-lowest in the country.

In their recent game against South Carolina, Ole Miss allowed just 3 points and forced one interception. The defense gave up 313 total yards, including 151 rushing yards on 43 attempts and 162 passing yards.

LSU enters Week 7 against Ole Miss with a 4-1 record, ranked 15th in our power rankings. They have a 92% chance of becoming bowl-eligible but only a 2.1% chance of winning the Southeastern, according to projections. However, they have a 14% shot at making the playoff.

The Tigers are 2-0 at home and 1-1 on the road this season. They’ve been favored in four of their five games, going 3-1 as the favorite. Their average scoring margin is +13.6 points, but they are 1-3 against the spread.

This week’s over/under line is 64.5 points, higher than their average line of 59.1 points. LSU’s over/under record is 1-3, with their games averaging 56.8 points per contest.

LSU’s offense is averaging 35.2 points per game heading into week 7, placing them 26th in the nation. However, they rank 8th in our offensive power rankings. Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier has thrown for 1,656 yards with 15 touchdowns and four interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 111.

LSU ranks 12th in passing yards per game, averaging 337.8 yards, and they are 6th in completions, with 28.6 per game. They convert 51.7% of their third downs. Nussmeier has completed 69.8% of his passes. Leading receiver Aaron Anderson has 371 yards and two touchdowns. The Tigers are averaging 130.8 rushing yards per game.

LSU’s defense is currently ranked 33rd in the nation, allowing 21.6 points per game. They’ve given up 236 passing yards per game, ranking 109th, and a passer rating of 94.8, with opposing quarterbacks completing 66.1% of their throws. On the ground, LSU has allowed 124.4 rushing yards per game, which is 52nd in the country.

In their recent game against South Alabama, LSU’s defense allowed just 10 points but gave up 453 total yards, including 292 passing yards. They also forced one interception in the game.

Ole Miss comes into this game as the -3.5 point favorite on the road vs. LSU. We have them winning by a score of 38-29, so we would recommend taking Ole Miss to cover the spread and the over, with the line set at 64.5 points. Our projection has these teams combining for 67 points.

No. 13 LSU Touting Balance Ahead of SEC Showdown vs. No. 9 Ole Miss

As the SEC season heats up, the pressure is mounting for teams looking to keep their College Football Playoff (CFP) hopes alive. With only a handful of teams left undefeated in conference play, every game matters more than ever. This Saturday, a pivotal matchup between two top-15 teams, No. 9 Ole Miss (5-1, 1-1 SEC) and No. 13 LSU (4-1, 1-0 SEC), will take center stage in Baton Rouge, Louisiana.

The Stakes Are High for Both Teams

With the SEC season still young, the margin for error has already tightened significantly. Only three teams in the conference remain unbeaten in SEC play, including LSU, No. 1 Texas, and No. 15 Texas A&M. Both LSU and Ole Miss know what’s on the line in this crucial matchup. A loss at this stage could severely hamper either team’s chances of making it to the SEC Championship Game and, ultimately, the CFP.

“We know where we’re at in terms of having SEC opponents in the next seven weeks,” LSU head coach Brian Kelly said, acknowledging the challenge ahead for his team.

LSU, which opened the season with a non-conference loss to USC, understands how important this game is. The Tigers were in a similar position last season when a 55-49 loss to Ole Miss derailed their CFP hopes. That loss dropped LSU to 3-2 and marked a low point in their season.

This time around, LSU is determined to avoid a repeat of last year’s disappointment. The Tigers are coming off a much-needed bye week and have been focusing on improving both sides of the ball, particularly their defense, which struggled mightily in last year’s shootout against the Rebels.

“Last year clearly we were tilted to one side of the ball and unfortunately we had to play the game that way,” Kelly recalled. “I didn’t like it, but that’s what we had. … That’s not the right way but it was the only way to play.”

LSU’s Defensive Improvement

Early in the season, LSU’s defense showed signs of vulnerability, much like in 2022. However, the Tigers have made noticeable improvements over the last two games, securing dominant wins over UCLA (34-17) and South Alabama (42-10). These performances have given Kelly confidence that his team is more balanced than it was last year.

“I think there’s much more balance in our football team,” Kelly said. “We’re much further along. This isn’t the same defense.”

LSU’s offense, led by quarterback Jayden Daniels, has remained potent, but the team’s newfound defensive stability could make the difference in high-stakes games like this one. The Tigers’ ability to contain Ole Miss’s explosive offense will be key to their success on Saturday.

Ole Miss and the Lane Kiffin Era

Under head coach Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss has built a reputation for offensive firepower. However, this season, the Rebels’ defense has also stepped up, providing a more well-rounded approach. The defense has kept Ole Miss in games when the offense has struggled, particularly in the team’s 20-17 loss to Kentucky in late September. Last week, the defense was dominant in a 27-3 victory over South Carolina, giving the Rebels confidence heading into their showdown with LSU.

One of the biggest concerns for Ole Miss heading into Saturday’s game is the status of star wide receiver Tre Harris, who left last week’s game with a lower leg injury and did not return. Harris has been a key part of the Rebels’ offense, leading the country with 885 receiving yards and ranking second nationally with 52 receptions. His availability is still uncertain.

“He certainly wouldn’t be playing (Monday),” Kiffin said earlier this week, indicating that Harris’ injury might keep him sidelined.

Without Harris, Ole Miss will need to adjust its offensive game plan. Kiffin admitted that the team struggled offensively in the second half of last week’s game after Harris left, managing just three points.

“We’ve got to perform better than we did in the second half without him when we had three points,” Kiffin said. “(His absence) makes us move people to different spots, so we’re preparing to do that and preparing to play without him.”

If Harris is unable to play, Antwane “Juice” Wells Jr., who is second on the team with 371 receiving yards and four touchdowns, will need to step up. Jordan Watkins, who has two receiving touchdowns on the season, will also be expected to contribute more in Harris’s potential absence.

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Ole Miss Defense Providing Confidence

While the loss of Harris would be significant, Ole Miss’s improved defense may help alleviate some of the pressure on the offense. Players like Watkins have expressed confidence in the defense’s ability to keep the game close and allow the offense more breathing room.

“It’s a different feeling just knowing that you don’t have to go out there and score every drive, just having that ability to not be stressed out,” Watkins said. “We’ve got a really good defense that flies around. They play together and they play sound.”

Ole Miss will need that defense to be at its best against an LSU offense that can strike quickly, especially with the likes of Jayden Daniels at quarterback.

The Showdown in Baton Rouge

As LSU and Ole Miss prepare for this crucial SEC showdown, both teams know what’s at stake. For LSU, this is a chance to solidify their position in the SEC and keep their CFP hopes alive. For Ole Miss, it’s an opportunity to bounce back from an early conference loss and prove they belong in the conversation as a legitimate contender.

With both teams showing balance and improvement on defense, this game could come down to which side can make the key stops and execute when it matters most. As the SEC season intensifies, Saturday night’s clash in Baton Rouge promises to be a must-watch battle between two teams fighting to stay in the hunt for the conference title and beyond.