Missouri Tigers vs Auburn Tigers Picks and Predictions October 19th 2024

ESPN will be covering the action as the Missouri Tigers host the Auburn Tigers at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium in Columbia. Kick-off is set for 12:00 ET, and Missouri comes in with a 5-1 record, while Auburn is 2-4. The over/under line is at 51.5 points, and Missouri is the -4.5 point favorite at home.

Auburn vs. Missouri Key Information

Auburn enters Week 8 with a 2-4 record, facing Missouri on the road. They are ranked 34th in our power rankings, but their chances of becoming bowl-eligible are just 22.9%. So far, Auburn is 0-1 on the road and 1-3 at home this season.

The Tigers have been favored in four of their six games, going 1-3 as the favorite. Their average scoring margin is +9.2 points per game, and they are 2-3 against the spread, with a 1-0 road ATS record and a 1-3 mark at home.

This week’s over/under line is set at 51.5 points. Auburn’s average over/under line this season is 51.6 points, and their over/under record is 2-3, with their games averaging 50.8 points.

Heading into week 8, Auburn’s offense is averaging 30 points per game, placing them 42nd in the nation. They are ranked 68th in our offensive power rankings. Their passing game has been the strength of the offense, averaging 279 yards per game, which ranks 28th nationally. They are 52nd in passing attempts per game, with 29, and 47th in completions, averaging 17.7 per game. Their third-down conversion rate is 41.3%.

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Payton Thorne leads the passing attack with 1,238 yards and a passer rating of 98. He has thrown 10 touchdowns and six interceptions. Auburn’s leading receiver, KeAndre Lambert-Smith, has 510 receiving yards and six touchdowns. On the ground, Jarquez Hunter has rushed for 528 yards, averaging 6 yards per carry.

Auburn’s defense has allowed an average of 20.8 points per game this season, ranking 32nd nationally. They’ve given up 213.3 passing yards per game (78th) and 126.3 rushing yards per game (55th).

In their recent game against Georgia, Auburn’s defense allowed 31 points and 609 total yards, including 459 passing yards, but they did manage to force two interceptions.

Missouri heads into Week 8 against Auburn with a 5-1 record and a 19th-place spot in our power rankings. They have a 99.1% chance of becoming bowl-eligible. However, their chances of winning the Southeastern are just 0.5%, while they have a 15% shot at making the playoff.

The Tigers are 2-0 at home and 1-1 on the road this season. They’ve been favored in three of their six games, going 3-0 as the favorite. Missouri’s average scoring margin is +18.2 points, and they are 2-2 against the spread.

Missouri’s over/under record is 1-3, with their games averaging 48.8 points. Their average over/under line is 51.3 points, and this week’s line is set at 51.5 points.

Heading into week 8, Missouri’s offense is averaging 33.5 points per game, placing them 28th nationally. They are ranked 40th in our offensive power rankings. Their third-down conversion rate is impressive at 50.6%, ranking 11th in the country. Missouri is 22nd in passing completions, averaging 23 per game, and they are 29th in passing attempts.

Quarterback Brady Cook has thrown for 1,351 yards with a 64.7% completion rate. He has seven touchdowns and one interception, with a passer rating of 96. Missouri is averaging 190.5 rushing yards per game. Nate Noel leads the ground attack with 471 yards, averaging 6 yards per carry. Theo Wease Jr. has 407 receiving yards on 31 catches.

Missouri’s defense has been a strong point this season, ranking 10th nationally by allowing just 15.3 points per game. In their recent game against UMass, they gave up only 3 points, allowing 237 total yards, including 95 rushing yards on 31 attempts and 142 passing yards, while also forcing an interception.

Opposing quarterbacks have managed a passer rating of just 71.5 against Missouri, completing 56.1% of their passes and averaging 154.5 passing yards per game, the 12th-lowest in the country. On the ground, Missouri’s defense is giving up 116.7 rushing yards per game on 32.3 attempts.

Our projections have Auburn winning this matchup 34-25, making them a strong bet as the +4.5 point underdogs on the road. For this week 8 game, we like Auburn to not only cover the spread but to win straight-up.

With the over/under line set at 51.5 points, we see a lot of value in taking the over, as our model is projecting a combined 59 points.

Friendly Rivalry as No. 19 Missouri Meets Auburn

As Missouri prepares to host Auburn on Saturday afternoon in Columbia, Mo., two SEC head coaches who share a close friendship will set their camaraderie aside for a critical conference clash. Auburn’s Hugh Freeze and Missouri’s Eli Drinkwitz are well-acquainted, but this matchup between No. 19 Missouri (5-1, 1-1 SEC) and Auburn (2-4, 0-3 SEC) promises to be all business.

A Friendship Built on Shared Values

While Freeze and Drinkwitz maintain a strong bond off the field, Saturday’s game is crucial for both teams, with Missouri looking to build on its strong season and Auburn desperate to turn things around. Freeze spoke warmly about his relationship with Drinkwitz earlier this week, acknowledging how their shared coaching philosophies helped form a connection.

“I don’t know where we started developing a friendship, but it came pretty naturally,” Freeze said. “I think we’re made of a similar mindset of what coaching should be about and the bigger picture of impacting others beyond wins and losses — which is very difficult to do.”

But when the whistle blows, both coaches will be fully focused on guiding their teams to victory.

Missouri’s Quest for Redemption and Consistency

After suffering their first loss of the season against LSU two weeks ago, Missouri bounced back in dominant fashion, rolling to a 45-3 victory over UMass last weekend. Missouri’s quarterback Brady Cook continued to shine, completing 14 of 19 passes for 219 yards and two touchdowns. Cook, who has thrown for 1,351 yards and seven touchdowns this season, has emerged as a key leader for the Tigers. He also adds versatility with 124 rushing yards and four scores on the ground.

Drinkwitz praised his team’s performance but expressed a desire for even greater consistency, especially in the passing game. Despite an explosive 63-yard catch-and-run by receiver Josh Manning in the third quarter, Drinkwitz wanted to see more sustained chemistry from his offensive unit.

“I got on the headsets and told the offensive staff that we weren’t going to run the ball again,” Drinkwitz said. “I wanted to see us develop some chemistry and continuity in the pass game. I didn’t anticipate that we would score on the first play, which was great but also disappointing because we wanted to continue working out the kinks.”

Key Players to Watch for Missouri

Nate Noel, Missouri’s leading rusher with 471 yards and two touchdowns, sat out against UMass with a stiff back but is expected to return this week. Noel’s availability will be crucial for a balanced attack against Auburn.

Meanwhile, Luther Burden III, the Tigers’ top receiving target who has amassed 488 yards from scrimmage and six total touchdowns, left the UMass game with a shoulder injury but is also likely to play on Saturday. His dynamic ability to stretch the field and score will be a critical factor in Missouri’s game plan.

On defense, Missouri hopes to see the return of linebacker Triston Newson, though injuries have sidelined key defenders like Joe Moore III and Khalil Jacobs for the rest of the season.

Auburn’s Struggles and a Focus on Basics

Auburn enters this contest looking to snap a three-game losing streak, with their most recent setback being a 31-13 loss to then-No. 5 Georgia on Oct. 5. During Auburn’s bye week, Hugh Freeze took the opportunity to return to the fundamentals, hoping to simplify the game plan for his struggling squad.

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“What is our bread and butter?” Freeze asked. “And let’s try to make it look different ways. But we probably don’t need more. Let’s do less and keep doing it better.”

Auburn’s offensive execution has been a point of frustration for Freeze, particularly in key moments like fourth-and-1 or third-and-1 situations where the team has faltered. Despite these challenges, Freeze remains hopeful that the Tigers can clean up their execution and make a push toward bowl eligibility in the second half of the season.

Key Players to Watch for Auburn

Jarquez Hunter, Auburn’s star running back, has rushed for 528 yards and three touchdowns while averaging an impressive 6.8 yards per carry. Freeze acknowledged that getting the ball to Hunter more often is a top priority. Auburn’s struggles in short-yardage situations have sometimes kept the ball out of Hunter’s hands, and the coaching staff is focused on rectifying that issue this week.

“I’ve been frustrated with some of our short-yardage deals that have been called and not executed at a high enough level where he actually touches it,” Freeze said. “We’ve got to get that corrected.”

Quarterback Payton Thorne has been inconsistent, completing 77 of 129 passes for 1,238 yards and 10 touchdowns, but he has also thrown six interceptions and been sacked 12 times. Thorne must improve his decision-making under pressure if Auburn hopes to keep pace with Missouri’s high-scoring offense.

What’s at Stake

For Missouri, this game presents an opportunity to keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive and continue their impressive season. Sitting at 5-1, the Tigers have emerged as one of the surprise teams in the SEC and have the chance to reach six wins before their schedule toughens with upcoming matchups against Georgia and Tennessee.

A victory over Auburn would push Missouri’s record to 6-1 and strengthen their position in the SEC standings.

For Auburn, the focus is on salvaging what has been a difficult season. At 2-4, the Tigers are hoping to stop the bleeding and pick up their first SEC victory. Bowl eligibility remains in play, but Auburn must correct its recent missteps and find a way to win on the road.

A Battle of Friends

While Freeze and Drinkwitz may share a close friendship, their paths diverge sharply this Saturday. Both coaches will be intent on victory, knowing the impact this game could have on their respective seasons. Missouri will look to continue its rise, while Auburn aims to find its footing and gain some much-needed momentum.

When the game kicks off in Columbia, Mo., all friendships will be put aside as two teams with vastly different stakes battle for conference supremacy.