Toledo Rockets vs Pittsburgh Panthers Picks and Predictions December 26th 2024

Toledo Rockets vs Pittsburgh Panthers December 26th 2024

ESPN is covering the matchup between the Pittsburgh Panthers and Toledo Rockets as they face off in the GameAbove Sports Bowl at Ford Field in Detroit. Kick-off is set for 2:00 ET on Thursday, December 26th. The Panthers come in with a 7-5 record, and the Rockets also sit at 7-5 this season. Pittsburgh is the -9.5 point favorite, and the over/under line is currently at 51.5 points.

Pittsburgh vs. Toledo Key Information

Pittsburgh enters their Week 1 matchup against Toledo with a 7-5 record. They’ve gone 4-2 at home and 2-3 on the road this season. The Panthers have been favored in five of their 12 games, going 4-1 as the favorite.

Against the spread, Pittsburgh is 6-5, with a 4-2 record at home and 2-3 on the road. They’ve gone 3-2 ATS as the favorite and 3-3 as the underdog, with an average scoring margin of +5.1 points per game.

The Panthers’ over/under record stands at 4-7. Their games have averaged 58.6 points, while their average over/under line is 57.8 points. This week’s line is set at 51.5 points.

Heading into week 11, Pittsburgh’s offense is averaging 31.8 points per game, ranking 33rd nationally. They are 67th in our offensive power rankings. The Panthers have been a pass-heavy team, ranking 13th in passing attempts, averaging 38.8 per game. They are 19th in passing yards, with 277.8 per game, and 16th in completions, with 23.7 per game. Their third-down conversion rate is just 37.8%, and they are 95th in rushing attempts, averaging 129.1 rushing yards per game.

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Eli Holstein leads the Panthers’ passing attack with 2,228 yards and 17 touchdowns, though he has thrown seven interceptions. He has a passer rating of 95 and has completed 61.9% of his passes. Desmond Reid leads the ground game with 797 rushing yards, averaging 5 yards per carry, and has scored four touchdowns. Konata Mumpfield is the top receiver with 813 yards and five touchdowns on 52 receptions.

Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed an average of 26.8 points per game this season, including 34 points in their recent loss to Boston College. They gave up 387 total yards, with 253 yards coming through the air and 134 on the ground.

Opponents have averaged 258.2 passing yards per game against Pittsburgh, completing 61.1% of their passes. On the ground, Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed just 118.2 rushing yards per game, ranking 35th nationally.

Toledo enters their Week 1 game against Pittsburgh with a 7-5 record. They’ve gone 3-2 at home and 3-2 on the road this season. The Rockets have been favored in eight of their 12 games, going 4-4 as the favorite.

Their ATS record stands at 4-6, with a +5.3 average scoring margin. As the favorite, they are 2-6 against the spread, and they’ve gone 2-3 ATS at home.

This week’s over/under line is 51.5 points. Toledo’s games have averaged 48 points, with an average line of 50 points. Six of their games have had higher totals than this week’s line, while six have been lower.

Toledo’s offense has been driven by their passing game, ranking 34th in passing attempts and completions, with an average of 246.2 yards per game. Tucker Gleason has thrown for 2,457 yards, 22 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 97. Overall, Toledo is 55th in scoring, with 26.7 points per game, and we have them ranked 105th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 1.

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Jerjuan Newton leads the receiving corps with 949 yards and 11 touchdowns on 64 receptions. On the ground, Toledo averages 121.6 rushing yards per game. Connor Walendzak has rushed for 457 yards, averaging 3 yards per carry, and has scored one touchdown.

Toledo’s defense has been a bright spot this season, ranking 24th nationally by allowing just 21.3 points per game. In their recent game against Akron, they gave up 21 points, allowing 328 total yards, including 107 rushing yards on 34 attempts and 221 yards through the air.

Opponents have averaged 139.9 rushing yards per game on 37.8 attempts against Toledo, while quarterbacks have posted a 79.7 passer rating, completing 58.5% of their passes for an average of 213.8 yards per game.

Pittsburgh is favored by -9.5 points in their week one matchup against Toledo, and we expect them to cover the spread. Our projected final score is 34-24 in favor of the Panthers.

With the over/under line set at 51.5 points, our projection of 58 total points suggests that taking the over is the best play for this game.

Toledo, Pitt Look to End Season on High Note in GameAbove Sports Bowl

The Toledo Rockets and Pittsburgh Panthers, both coming off seasons that didn’t fully meet expectations, will clash on Dec. 26 in Detroit’s GameAbove Sports Bowl. Each team aims to cap the year on a positive note, reflecting on missed opportunities while laying groundwork for the future.

Panthers’ Late-Season Struggles

Pittsburgh (7-5) was in prime position early in the season, debuting at No. 18 in the College Football Playoff rankings on Nov. 5. However, a 48-25 loss to SMU began a five-game slide that derailed their postseason aspirations.

Injuries were a significant factor in Pitt’s decline. Freshman quarterback Eli Holstein missed key games due to a head injury and an ankle issue, leaving the Panthers to lean on backup Nate Yarnell. Yarnell, however, entered the transfer portal after the regular season, leaving the starting role uncertain. David Lynch, who saw limited action this year, is likely the next man up if Holstein is unavailable.

Desmond Reid, the Panthers’ dynamic all-purpose back, also missed the regular-season finale against Boston College due to injury. His potential return is a key storyline, as he led Pitt with 797 rushing yards, 564 receiving yards, and four touchdowns in each category. Reid’s versatility could be pivotal in balancing Pitt’s offense.

Defensively, linebacker Kyle Louis has been a force. An All-American honoree, Louis boasts 16 tackles for loss, seven sacks, and four interceptions, including a pick-six, showcasing his game-changing abilities.

Toledo’s Potent Passing Game

Toledo (7-5) enters the bowl game with one of the most potent passing offenses in the Mid-American Conference, averaging 246.2 yards per game. Quarterback Tucker Gleason has been a standout, amassing 2,457 passing yards and 22 touchdowns. Wide receiver Jerjuan Newton has been his primary target, racking up 949 receiving yards and a MAC-best 11 touchdowns.

Defensively, safety Maxen Hook has anchored the unit with 107 tackles and two interceptions. The Rockets have limited opponents to an average of five yards per play, ranking 27th nationally.

Toledo head coach Jason Candle, on the brink of tying Gary Pinkel as the school’s all-time winningest coach with 73 victories, emphasized the importance of balancing preparations for the game with developmental opportunities for younger players.

“This is a reward for having a great year,” Candle said. “You want to finish it off the right way, and … set the culture and the tempo for what your offseason starting point is.”

What’s at Stake

Both teams aim to reverse end-of-season slides—Pitt’s five straight losses and Toledo’s back-to-back defeats. For Pitt, the bowl represents a chance to salvage a season that began with high hopes. For Toledo, it’s about sending off seniors with a win while gaining momentum for 2025.

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Key Matchups

• Pitt’s Desmond Reid vs. Toledo’s Defense: If Reid returns, his ability to create mismatches as a rusher and receiver will challenge Toledo’s stout defense.
• Toledo’s Passing Game vs. Pitt’s Secondary: Gleason and Newton will test a Panthers defense that has thrived on takeaways, led by Kyle Louis.

Conclusion

Both teams are motivated to finish strong and start building for next season. The GameAbove Sports Bowl provides a platform for Pittsburgh and Toledo to showcase their talent while overcoming the adversity of the season. It’s a chance for the Panthers to rebound and for the Rockets to solidify their standing as one of the MAC’s top programs.