Utah Utes vs Texas Christian Horned Frogs Picks and Predictions October 19th 2024

ESPN will be covering the week eight matchup between the TCU Horned Frogs and Utah Utes as the game is set for 10:30 ET from Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City. The Utes are the -4.5 point favorites at home, and the over/under line is currently at 49 points. The Utes come in with a 4-2 record, while TCU is 3-3 on the season.

TCU vs. Utah Key Information

TCU enters Week 8 with a 3-3 record, ranked 56th in our CFB power rankings. They have a 60.2% chance of becoming bowl-eligible. On the road, they are 2-1, but they’ve struggled at home, going 0-2 this season.

The Horned Frogs are 1-4 against the spread, with an average scoring margin of +4.5 points per game. They are 0-4 ATS as the favorite but have covered in their only game as the underdog.

TCU’s over/under record is 4-1, with their games averaging 66.2 points. Their average over/under line is 57.7 points, and this week’s line is set at 49 points.

Heading into week 8, TCU’s offense ranks 21st in points per game, averaging 35.3, and they are 32nd in our offensive power rankings. Their passing game is their strength, ranking 6th in passing yards per game with 342.8. They are 4th in completions, averaging 28.2 per game, and 7th in passing attempts. Their third-down conversion rate is 48.7%, which ranks 15th nationally.

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Quarterback Josh Hoover has thrown for 2,007 yards with a 68.6% completion rate, and he has 16 touchdown passes but also 6 interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 106. On the ground, TCU is averaging just 100.2 rushing yards per game. Cam Cook leads the team with 336 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns. Receiver Jack Bech has 702 yards and 7 touchdowns on 39 catches.

TCU’s defense has struggled this season, allowing an average of 30.8 points per game. In their recent 30-19 loss to Houston, they gave up 30 points, with 210 rushing yards on 42 attempts and 154 passing yards.

Opponents have averaged 183.7 rushing yards per game against TCU, ranking 134th nationally. However, TCU’s pass defense ranks 13th, allowing just 155.5 yards per game on 25.5 attempts per game, the 23rd fewest in the country.

Utah enters Week 8 with a 4-2 record, ranked 44th in our power rankings. They have a 1.0% chance of winning the Big 12 but an 86.6% chance of becoming bowl-eligible. At home, they are 1-1, while they hold a 2-1 record on the road this season.

The Utes have been favored in five of their six games, going 3-2 as the favorite. Their average scoring margin is +9.8 points, but they are 1-4 against the spread this season.

Utah’s over/under record stands at 1-4, with their games averaging 43.8 points. This week’s line is set at 49 points, with four of their games falling below that total and two above it.

Heading into week 8, Utah’s offense ranks 83rd in our CFB offensive power rankings, scoring 26.8 points per game. They are 56th in rushing, averaging 176.8 yards per game on 37.2 attempts.

Micah Bernard leads the rushing attack with 676 yards, averaging 6 yards per carry, but has only found the end zone twice. Quarterback Isaac Wilson has thrown for 830 yards, with six touchdowns and seven interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 69.

Despite Utah’s 27-19 loss to Arizona State, their defense has been solid this season, ranking 15th nationally by allowing just 17 points per game. Against Arizona State, they gave up 27 points, including three rushing touchdowns and 205 rushing yards, while also allowing 167 passing yards and forcing one interception.

Opposing quarterbacks have completed just 49.5% of their passes against Utah, the sixth-lowest rate in the country, averaging 172 passing yards per game. Utah’s defense has faced the 17th fewest rushing attempts nationally, allowing 126.2 rushing yards per game.

TCU comes into this week 8 matchup as the road underdog vs. Utah, but we have them winning the game straight-up with a projected final score of 25-23 in their favor. With TCU at +4.5, we like their chances to cover the spread.

For the over/under line, which is set at 49 points, we recommend taking the under, as our projection has the combined score at 48 points.

Isaac Wilson, Utah Look to Take Down TCU

Utah’s football season is at a crossroads, with standout quarterback Cameron Rising out for the season and the Utes facing a two-game skid. As they look to halt their slide, Utah will lean on freshman quarterback Isaac Wilson to lead the charge when they host TCU in a Big 12 matchup on Saturday night in Salt Lake City.

Rising’s Injury and Utah’s Challenge

Cameron Rising’s latest injury is a significant blow to the Utes’ postseason aspirations. Rising sustained a season-ending injury to his right lower leg during last weekend’s 27-19 loss to Arizona State. This comes after the seventh-year quarterback had already missed time earlier in the season with a hand injury.

For a Utah team that started the season strong at 4-0, the loss of Rising and two consecutive defeats have dimmed their hopes of being in the mix for a postseason playoff spot. Still, Utah coach Kyle Whittingham remains hopeful that his team can battle through this adversity.

“They’ve got to be warriors and want to battle through some adversity,” Whittingham said. “It’s not like we’re 1-5 and sitting here with a horrific season. We have dropped a couple of games in a row, and we’re not used to losing two in a row around here.”

Rising’s injury is especially tough for Utah, as he missed all of last season due to a major left knee injury sustained during the Rose Bowl on January 2, 2023. With his college career likely at its end, Rising’s contributions to the program—both as a player and leader—will be missed.

Wilson’s Opportunity

With Rising sidelined, the spotlight now falls on Isaac Wilson, a freshman quarterback with the potential to be Utah’s long-term answer at the position. Wilson has shown flashes of his talent this season, passing for 830 yards and six touchdowns. However, growing pains have been evident, with seven interceptions and a completion rate of just 55.7 percent.

Despite his struggles, Wilson has the backing of his coaches and teammates as he looks to lead Utah through the remainder of the season. Whittingham remains confident that Wilson will continue to improve and become a more consistent presence on the field.

In addition to Wilson, Utah will also rely on the running game led by Micah Bernard, who is coming off a 129-yard rushing performance against Arizona State. Bernard has been one of the most reliable offensive weapons for the Utes this season, rushing for 676 yards and averaging 6.6 yards per carry. His four 100-yard games have been crucial for Utah, and he will need to continue his strong play to ease the pressure on Wilson.

TCU’s Struggles and Bye Week Reset

The TCU Horned Frogs (3-3, 1-2) come into this matchup looking to rebound after a tough stretch of their own. They are coming off a bye week, which followed a 30-19 home loss to Houston. That defeat was particularly disheartening, as Houston had been shut out in its two previous games before beating TCU.

TCU coach Sonny Dykes used the bye week to return to the basics and focus on improving the fundamentals of his team, which he believes are crucial to turning things around.

“We tried to focus a lot on fundamentals,” Dykes said. “Playing lower up front, obviously better ball security and tackling, just all the stuff that’s important. We had a bunch of opportunities last week to get some work in, and I thought we had really good practices and improved.”

Key Players for TCU

Despite their struggles, TCU has plenty of firepower, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. The Horned Frogs feature one of the nation’s top receivers in Jack Bech, who is tied for fifth nationally with 702 receiving yards. Bech has been a consistent playmaker for TCU, catching 39 passes and finding the end zone seven times this season. His four 100-yard outings, including a 200-yard performance against UCF on September 14, have made him a go-to target for the Horned Frogs.

TCU’s quarterback, Josh Hoover, has also been productive, ranking fifth in the nation with 2,007 passing yards. Hoover has thrown for 16 touchdowns with six interceptions while completing 68.6 percent of his passes. His ability to move the ball effectively will be a key factor in whether TCU can take advantage of Utah’s defense, which has shown vulnerabilities in recent weeks.

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Utah vs. TCU: Series History

The Utes hold a 5-3 edge in the all-time series against TCU. The programs have faced off previously in both the Western Athletic Conference (WAC) and Mountain West Conference before joining the Big 12. Despite Utah’s recent losses, the Utes will look to build on their historical success against the Horned Frogs, especially with the advantage of playing at home.

What’s at Stake

For Utah, this game represents a critical opportunity to stop their losing streak and get back on track in the Big 12. Wilson’s development as a quarterback will be essential, as will Bernard’s continued production in the running game. The Utes still have a strong foundation to work with, and with Whittingham at the helm, they are capable of overcoming their current challenges.

On the other hand, TCU will be eager to bounce back after their bye week and show that they can compete at a high level despite their recent struggles. With Hoover and Bech leading the offense, the Horned Frogs have the potential to put up big numbers, and a win in Salt Lake City would be a significant boost to their season.

As both teams look to find their footing, Saturday’s matchup promises to be an intense battle between two programs trying to right the ship in the second half of the season.