Tennessee Volunteers vs Florida Gators Picks and Predictions October 12th 2024

ESPN is handling the television broadcast as the Tennessee Volunteers host the Florida Gators in a week seven matchup. Kick-off is set for 7:00 ET from Neyland Stadium in Knoxville. The Volunteers are the heavy favorite at -15.5 points, with the over/under line currently at 54.5 points. Tennessee enters the game with a 4-1 record, while Florida is 3-2 on the season.

Florida vs. Tennessee Key Information

Florida enters Week 7 against Tennessee with a 3-2 record, ranked 36th in our power rankings. They have a 31.7% chance of becoming bowl-eligible. The Gators are 1-2 at home but have gone 1-0 on the road this season.

Florida’s ATS record is 2-2, and they have an average scoring margin of +5.8 points per game. They are 1-0 against the spread as favorites and 0-2 as underdogs.

Their over/under record is 3-1, with an average line of 54.6 points. This week’s line is set at 54.5 points, close to their season average.

Heading into week 7, Florida’s offense ranks 46th in points per game, averaging 30.2. They are 30th in our offensive power rankings. The Gators are 37th in passing completions, with 20 per game, and 46th in passing yards, averaging 268.6 yards per game. Their third-down conversion rate is 39.2%, ranking 66th nationally.

Quarterback DJ Lagway has thrown for 667 yards, with a passer rating of 111. He has four touchdowns and three interceptions, completing 69.1% of his passes. Montrell Johnson Jr. leads the rushing attack with 288 yards and four touchdowns, averaging 5 yards per carry. Elijhah Badger has 346 receiving yards and two touchdowns.

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Florida’s defense is giving up 24.4 points per game this season, ranking 43rd nationally. In their latest game, they allowed just 13 points against UCF, giving up 273 total yards, including 108 rushing yards on 40 attempts and 165 passing yards, while also forcing an interception.

Opponents are averaging 172.8 rushing yards per game against Florida, ranking the Gators 123rd in the nation. Through the air, Florida has allowed 222.4 passing yards per game, with quarterbacks completing 63.4% of their passes and posting a passer rating of 97.6, which ranks 128th nationally.

Tennessee heads into their Week 7 matchup against Florida with a 4-1 record, ranked 6th in our power rankings. They have a 99.9% chance of being bowl-eligible and a 6.7% chance of winning the Southeastern. The Volunteers have a 47.5% chance of making the playoff, which is the 11th best in the country.

So far this season, Tennessee has gone 1-0 at home and 2-1 on the road. They’ve been favored in four of their five games and have a +36.6 average scoring margin. Against the spread, the Volunteers are 3-1.

The over/under line for this week’s game is 54.5 points. Tennessee’s games have averaged 55.4 points, with an average line of 58.9 points. Their over/under record is 2-2, and their average margin against the line is -7.6 points.

Heading into week 7, Tennessee’s offense is 4th in the nation in scoring, averaging 46 points per game. They are also 9th in rushing, with 270 yards per game on 46 attempts. Dylan Sampson leads the ground attack with 589 yards and 12 touchdowns, averaging 6 yards per carry.

Quarterback Nico Iamaleava has thrown for 1,048 yards, with seven touchdowns and two interceptions. Tennessee ranks 59th in passing yards, and Iamaleava’s passer rating is 107. The Volunteers are 22nd in our offensive power rankings. Dont’e Thornton Jr. has 284 receiving yards and three touchdowns.

Despite a strong defensive effort, Tennessee fell 19-14 to Arkansas, allowing 436 total yards. The Volunteers gave up 297 passing yards but held Arkansas to 139 rushing yards on 43 attempts and didn’t allow a passing touchdown.

Even after the loss, Tennessee’s defense ranks 4th nationally, allowing just 9.4 points per game. They’ve given up 81.4 rushing yards per game (8th) and 159.6 passing yards, with a passer rating of 73.1 against them.

We like Florida’s chances to cover the +15.5 point spread as they take on Tennessee in week seven. Our projected final score is 29-22 in favor of Tennessee, but Florida should cover the spread.

With the over/under line sitting at 54.5 points, our projection of 51 combined points suggests that taking the under is the best play for this matchup.

No. 8 Vols Aim to Bounce Back in Series Dominated by Florida

Tennessee finds itself in a pivotal moment as it prepares to face long-time rival Florida, a team that has historically dominated the Volunteers in recent matchups. Coming off their first loss of the season, the No. 8 Volunteers (4-1, 1-1 SEC) will look to rebound in front of their home crowd when they host the Gators (3-2, 1-1 SEC) in a crucial Southeastern Conference game Saturday night in Knoxville.

Tennessee’s Struggles and Need for Offensive Spark

Tennessee entered last weekend undefeated but stumbled in a 19-14 loss on the road to Arkansas. After a strong start to the season, the Volunteers’ offense faltered, managing just two touchdowns for the second consecutive game. This came on the heels of a low-scoring 25-15 win over Oklahoma in which the offense similarly struggled to find consistency.

Head coach Josh Heupel pointed to self-inflicted mistakes as a major reason for the team’s offensive issues.

“So many self-inflicted wounds,” Heupel said. “Too many pre-snap penalties, playing penalties, and miscommunication. So at times you’re not playing on tempo. At the end of the day, you’ve got to play smart, effective football.”

Freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava, making just his second start, completed 16 of 28 passes for 156 yards but was sacked four times as Tennessee’s offensive line struggled to protect him. Iamaleava’s development will be a critical factor for the Volunteers as they look to get their offense back on track.

While the loss was a setback, Heupel is hopeful that returning to Neyland Stadium after a month on the road will provide a boost. The raucous home crowd could be exactly what the Volunteers need to reignite their season.

“We need to have the Neyland Effect in effect on Saturday night,” Heupel said.

Florida’s Momentum and Dominance in the Rivalry

In contrast, Florida comes into the game riding a wave of momentum. After a shaky start to the season, the Gators have strung together two consecutive wins, including an SEC road victory against Mississippi State and an in-state triumph over UCF. Quarterback Graham Mertz led the way in the 24-13 win over the Knights, passing for 179 yards and a touchdown.

Head coach Billy Napier believes the Gators are playing their best football right now, which bodes well as they head into Knoxville. Florida’s defense has been particularly strong, especially in its most recent outing, where they held UCF’s potent running attack to just 108 yards on 40 carries.

“As I’ve said before, if we want to be a consistent contender here and have a championship-caliber team, we’re going to have to play championship-caliber defense,” Napier said. “I’m pleased with the direction there.”

While Florida’s recent form is encouraging, the Gators’ historical dominance over Tennessee has been a significant factor in this rivalry. Florida has won 17 of the last 19 meetings between the two teams, including an 11-game winning streak from 2005 to 2015. Even in Knoxville, the Gators have often found a way to come out on top, and they’ll be looking to continue that trend on Saturday.

Last season, Florida upset then-No. 11 Tennessee 29-16 in Gainesville. The Volunteers will need to reverse that trend if they hope to keep their SEC title hopes alive.

Keys to the Game

For Tennessee, the key to bouncing back will be finding more rhythm and consistency on offense. The Volunteers have plenty of talent, but costly mistakes and a lack of cohesion have held them back in recent weeks. Iamaleava will need to step up and lead the offense with poise, while the offensive line must do a better job protecting him to allow for explosive plays in the passing game.

Tennessee’s run game, which has been a strength all season, will also need to deliver, especially with the pressure Florida’s defense can generate. The Volunteers’ ability to balance their attack with effective running and passing plays will be crucial in overcoming Florida’s defensive front.

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On the other side, Florida’s defense will need to continue its impressive form and put pressure on Iamaleava. The Gators’ defensive line has been dominant in recent weeks, and if they can force Tennessee into mistakes or long third-down situations, it could be a long night for the Vols.

Offensively, Florida will lean on Mertz to manage the game and avoid costly turnovers. With Tennessee’s defense showing vulnerability in recent games, the Gators may also look to establish their ground game early to keep the pressure on the Volunteers and control the tempo.

A Rivalry Reignited

While Tennessee and Florida are on somewhat different trajectories this season, this rivalry remains one of the most storied in the SEC. Florida holds a 32-21 lead in the all-time series, but the Volunteers have shown in recent years that they can compete with the Gators, especially at home. Stellar performances by Tennessee quarterbacks Joshua Dobbs in 2016 and Hendon Hooker in 2021 helped the Volunteers break through and prevent a longer streak of Florida dominance.

This year’s matchup promises to be another fierce contest, with both teams seeking to solidify their standing in the SEC. Tennessee needs a win to regain momentum and stay in the hunt for a conference title, while Florida looks to continue its recent surge and make a statement in Knoxville.

Florida head coach Billy Napier is well aware of the challenge Tennessee poses.

“Tennessee has a really good football team, and all three parts of their team present challenges,” Napier said. “I have a ton of respect for how they play, the tempo on offense and the physicality of their run game paired with the explosive plays. The vertical shots and the perimeter concepts can be very challenging. Defensively, they continue to get better.”

The Road Ahead

Both teams have plenty on the line heading into Saturday’s game. For Tennessee, the focus will be on correcting mistakes and returning to the form that propelled them to a top-10 ranking. For Florida, the opportunity to continue their dominance over the Volunteers and extend their win streak could be a defining moment in their season.

As the SEC season intensifies, the outcome of this game could play a crucial role in shaping the futures of both programs. One thing is for sure: Neyland Stadium will be rocking, and the Volunteers will need every bit of home-field advantage to get past their long-time nemesis.