Western Michigan Broncos vs South Alabama Jaguars Picks and Predictions December 14th 2024

Western Michigan Broncos vs South Alabama Jaguars December 14th 2024

South Alabama is the -10 point favorite over Western Michigan in this week’s IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl, with kickoff set for 9:00 ET on Saturday, December 14th, at Cramton Bowl in Montgomery. The game will be broadcast on ESPN. Both teams enter the game with a 6-6 record for the season. The over/under line is currently at 59.5 points.

South Alabama vs. Western Michigan Key Information

Teams: Jaguars at Broncos
Where: Cramton Bowl Montgomery
Date: Saturday, December 14th
Betting Odds SALA -391 | WMICH +299 O/U 59.5

The Jaguars Can Win If…

South Alabama enters Week 1 against Western Michigan with a 6-6 record. They’ve gone 3-3 on the road and 2-3 at home this season. The Jaguars have been favored in seven of their 12 games, holding a 3-4 record as the favorite and a 2-2 mark when playing as the underdog.

Their ATS record stands at 4-7, with a +9.4 average scoring margin. South Alabama is 2-5 against the spread as the favorite, and they’ve covered in two of six road games (2-4 ATS) and two of five home games (2-3 ATS).

South Alabama’s over/under record is 4-7, with an average of 60.1 points per game. Their average over/under line is 58.2 points, and this week’s line is set at 59.5. They’ve had seven games with higher lines and four with lower totals than this week’s line.

South Alabama’s offense ranks 17th in scoring, averaging 34.8 points per game, and they are 28th in rushing yards, with 196.3 yards per game. Fluff Bothwell leads the rushing attack with 834 yards, 13 touchdowns, and an impressive 7 yards per carry.

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Quarterback Gio Lopez has thrown for 2,557 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, earning a passer rating of 103. South Alabama ranks 24th in completion percentage. Jamaal Pritchett has 91 catches for 1,126 yards and 9 touchdowns.

South Alabama’s defense struggled in their recent game, allowing 45 points in a 45-38 loss to Texas State. They gave up 534 total yards, including 286 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns, while also allowing 248 passing yards. Despite the defensive issues, they did manage to force two interceptions.

On the season, the Jaguars rank 50th nationally, giving up 25.3 points per game. Opponents have averaged 149 rushing yards per game and 253.2 passing yards, ranking South Alabama 146th in the nation against the pass. Quarterbacks have completed 63.9% of their passes against the Jaguars’ defense.

Over their last three games, the South Alabama Jaguars have gone 2-1 straight up. But, they did not perform well vs the spread in these games, going 1-2. Their over-under record in these matchups was 1-2.
Through their last ten regular season contests, South Alabama has a record of 6-4. Across these games, their ATS record was just 5-5, while posting an over-under record of 4-6.

The Broncos Can Win If…

Western Michigan comes into their Week 1 game against South Alabama with a 6-6 record. They’ve been strong at home, posting a 3-1 record, but have struggled on the road, going 2-5. As the favorite, they are 4-1 this season, but they’ve gone 0-5 when playing as the underdog.

The Broncos have a -2 average scoring margin and are 5-6 against the spread. They are 3-2 ATS as the favorite and 1-4 as the underdog. At home, they’ve covered the spread in all three games as the favorite, but are 0-1 ATS as the home underdog.

This week’s over/under line is set at 59.5 points. Western Michigan’s games have averaged 60.8 points per contest, with an average over/under line of 54.8 points. Their over/under record for the season is 6-5, with only one game having a higher line than this week’s total.

Western Michigan’s offense is averaging 29.4 points per game, placing them 42nd in the nation. They are ranked 61st in our offensive power rankings. Their rushing attack is their strength, averaging 191.2 yards per game on 36.6 attempts.

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Jaden Nixon leads the ground game with 876 rushing yards, 12 touchdowns, and an average of 6 yards per carry. Quarterback Hayden Wolff has thrown for 2,212 yards with 17 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 99.

Western Michigan’s defense has struggled this season, allowing 31.4 points per game. They’ve given up an average of 218.6 passing yards per game, ranking 90th nationally, and 188.3 rushing yards per game, which is 141st in the country.

In their recent game against Eastern Michigan, the defense allowed 18 points and 294 total yards. They gave up 203 rushing yards but held Eastern Michigan to just 91 passing yards and forced one interception.

Western Michigan will look to keep things rolling as they have put together a mark of 2-1 over their past three games. Their strong play has also resulted in an ATS mark of 2-1 (last 3). They had an over/under mark of 2-1 in those same games.
Western Michigan has put together a record of 7-3 in their last ten games (regular season). The team’s record vs the spread was just 6-4, in addition to an over-under mark of 7-3.

The Lean

Our pick for this week one matchup between South Alabama and Western Michigan is to take South Alabama to cover the -10 point spread. We are projecting a final score of 33-19 in favor of South Alabama.

With the over/under line sitting at 59.5 points, our projection of 52 total points suggests that taking the under is the best play for this game.

South Alabama and Western Michigan Open Bowl Season in Montgomery

The South Alabama Jaguars and Western Michigan Broncos will kick off the college football bowl season in the IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl on Saturday night in Montgomery, Alabama. The matchup marks the first-ever meeting between the two programs, but the head coaches share a common history as former staff members under Nick Saban at Alabama in 2007.

A Familiar Coaching Connection

Jaguars first-year head coach Major Applewhite served as the offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach for Saban’s inaugural Alabama staff, while Broncos second-year head coach Lance Taylor was an offensive graduate assistant. That shared background adds an intriguing subplot to this historic matchup.

“That says a lot about our program and where we’re headed,” Applewhite said, emphasizing South Alabama’s growing reputation as the team prepares for its third consecutive bowl appearance.

Taylor, in contrast, highlighted the importance of the game for his 26 seniors as they aim to leave a lasting legacy for Western Michigan.

“We want to leave a legacy for our seniors,” Taylor said, underscoring the significance of securing the program’s third bowl victory in its 119-year history.

Season Recap: Different Paths, Similar Records

Both teams finished the season 6-6, meeting the minimum requirement for bowl eligibility. South Alabama achieved its mark with a late-season victory before dropping its finale to Texas State, while Western Michigan secured bowl eligibility with a rivalry win over Eastern Michigan.

Western Michigan Broncos vs South Alabama Jaguars

South Alabama went 5-3 in the Sun Belt Conference, while Western Michigan posted the same record in the Mid-American Conference (MAC). Both teams also faced tough nonconference schedules, with the Jaguars falling to then-No. 14 LSU 42-10 and the Broncos enduring early-season losses to Wisconsin and Ohio State.

Taylor reflected on his team’s resilience after a midseason skid. “Progress is not always linear. You’re going to have ups and downs. We didn’t fracture when we lost three games in a row; we came together, bonded, and found a way to get bowl eligible,” he said.

Offensive Showdowns and Key Players

Western Michigan boasts the MAC’s top-scoring offense, averaging 29.4 points per game. The team’s ground game is led by first-team all-MAC running back Jaden Nixon, who tallied 12 touchdowns and averaged 6.6 yards per carry, behind first-team linemen Addison West and Jacob Gideon.

South Alabama counters with an even more potent attack, ranking second in the Sun Belt and 20th nationally in scoring at 34.8 points per game. First-team All-Sun Belt receiver Jamaal Pritchett headlines their offense with 91 catches for 1,126 yards and nine touchdowns this season.

The Bowl Season’s First Matchup

The Salute to Veterans Bowl is the first FBS bowl game of the season, coming just two weeks after both teams concluded their regular seasons. Applewhite noted the compressed timeline presents unique challenges.

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“It’s more or less a bye week,” Applewhite said. “You lose opportunities to bring recruits in. Also, you lose the accumulation of practice that you get by playing in a later bowl game.”

Despite these challenges, both teams are eager to capitalize on this early-season opportunity.

What to Watch For

Explosive Offenses: Both teams feature high-scoring attacks, with Western Michigan’s ground game and South Alabama’s passing game poised to test each other’s defenses.
Jaden Nixon vs. Jamaal Pritchett: Nixon’s power running for the Broncos and Pritchett’s dynamic receiving for the Jaguars are game-changing factors to watch.
Coaching Connections: The shared history between Applewhite and Taylor adds an extra layer of intrigue to this matchup.

With both teams eager to prove themselves and start bowl season with a bang, Saturday night’s game promises to deliver plenty of action in Montgomery.