Northwestern Wildcats vs Illinois Fighting Illini Picks and Predictions November 30th 2024

Northwestern Wildcats vs Illinois Fighting Illini November 30th 2024

Illinois is the heavy favorite in this week 14 Big Ten matchup against Northwestern, with a -7.5 point spread in their favor. The game is set for 12:00 ET at Wrigley Field in Chicago, and you can catch the action on BTN. The over/under line is currently at 44 points. The money line odds are -286 for Illinois and +234 for Northwestern. Illinois comes in with an 8-3 record, while Northwestern is 4-7 on the season.

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Illinois vs. Northwestern Key Information

• Teams: Fighting Illini at Wildcats
• Where: Wrigley Field Chicago
• Date: Saturday, November 30th
• Betting Odds ILL -286 | NW +234 O/U 44

The Fighting Illini Can Win If…

Illinois enters Week 14 with an 8-3 record, but they have no chance of winning the Big Ten. However, they are guaranteed to be bowl-eligible. The Fighting Illini are 4-1 at home and 1-2 on the road this season.

Against the spread, Illinois is 5-3, with a +6.5 average scoring margin. They’ve been favored in just two games, going 1-1 ATS as favorites and 4-2 ATS as underdogs.

The over/under line for this week’s game is 44 points. Illinois games have averaged 49.6 points, and their over/under record is 2-6, with an average line of 48.8 points.

Illinois enters week 14 ranked 53rd in points per game, averaging 28.1, and they are 40th in our offensive power rankings. Quarterback Luke Altmyer has thrown for 2,373 yards with 20 touchdowns and just three interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 102. Illinois ranks 26th nationally in passer rating and 32nd in third-down conversions, converting 44.1% of their attempts.

Altmyer’s completion rate is 61%, and Illinois is 61st in passing completions, averaging 17.3 per game. They are 77th in passing yards, with 218.4 per game. Leading receiver Pat Bryant has 908 yards and nine touchdowns on 49 catches. On the ground, Illinois averages 146.1 rushing yards per game. Josh McCray leads the team with 449 rushing yards and eight touchdowns.

Illinois’ defense has allowed an average of 21.5 points per game this season, ranking 31st nationally. In their recent game against Rutgers, they gave up 31 points, allowing 387 total yards, including 213 rushing yards on 45 attempts and 174 passing yards.

Opponents have averaged 154.7 rushing yards per game against Illinois, while quarterbacks have posted a 60.7% completion rate and 212.1 passing yards per game.

• The Illinois Fighting Illini have posted a 2-1 record in their previous three games. In terms of betting, the team went 2-1 ATS in these matchups. Their over/under record in these matchups is 2-1.
• Through their last ten regular season contests, Illinois has a record of 7-3. Across these games, their ATS record was just 6-4, while posting an over-under record of 4-6.

The Wildcats Can Win If…

Northwestern enters Week 14 with a 4-7 record and no chance of becoming bowl-eligible. They are ranked 88th in our power rankings ahead of their matchup with Illinois. The Wildcats have gone 1-3 at home this season and have been favored in just one of their 11 games.

Northwestern’s average scoring margin is -8.4 points per game, and they are 3-5 against the spread. At home, they are 2-2 ATS and have covered in their only game as the favorite.

The over/under line for this week is set at 44 points. Northwestern’s games have averaged an over/under line of 41 points, with their over/under record sitting at 4-4 for the season.

Heading into week 14, Northwestern’s offense is averaging just 16.9 points per game, placing them 100th in the nation. They are ranked 113th in our offensive power rankings and have struggled on third downs, converting only 31.1% of their attempts. Their rushing attack is averaging 98.7 yards per game.

Jack Lausch has thrown for 1,427 yards this season, with five touchdowns and six interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 67. Northwestern ranks 115th in passing yards per game. Cam Porter leads the team in rushing with 448 yards and six touchdowns, while Bryce Kirtz has 573 receiving yards.

Northwestern’s defense has allowed an average of 25.3 points per game this season, including 50 points in their recent loss to Michigan. In that game, they gave up 396 total yards, with 201 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns allowed, while also allowing 195 passing yards but managing to force one interception.

Opposing quarterbacks have completed 63.3% of their passes against Northwestern, averaging 237.4 passing yards per game. The Wildcats rank 44th nationally in rushing defense, allowing 123.6 rushing yards per game on 31.7 attempts per game, which is the 30th fewest rushing attempts faced in the country.

• Over their last three regular season games, the Northwestern Wildcats have gone 0-3 straight up. In these matchups, they ended with an ATS record of 1-2 and an over-under mark of 1-2.
• Across Northwestern’s last ten regular season games, their record sits at 5-5. Their record against the spread in this stretch is 6-4 to go along with an over-under mark of 3-7.

The Lean

Our pick against the spread is Northwestern, as they come into this one as +7.5 point underdogs at home. Illinois is favored to win, but we have the Illini winning 24-20, and Northwestern has a good chance to cover the spread.

For the over/under, with the line sitting at 44 points, we have these teams right at that number, so we don’t see any value in taking the over or the under.

Weekly College Football Picks

No. 23 Illinois Optimistic About Postseason Hopes as They Prepare for Northwestern Clash

No. 23 Illinois finds itself on the fringes of College Football Playoff (CFP) contention, carrying an 8-3 record into Saturday’s matchup against Northwestern at Chicago’s historic Wrigley Field. With three losses, the Fighting Illini remain a long shot for a Top 12 spot, but head coach Bret Bielema maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook as his team prepares to finish the regular season strong.

Illinois’ Path to Success

Despite their ranking, Illinois boasts a strong resume. Two of their losses came on the road against CFP heavyweights—No. 1 Oregon and No. 4 Penn State. Their only other defeat, an eight-point home loss to Minnesota, underscores the razor-thin margins the Illini have faced this season.

Head coach Bret Bielema exudes resilience and belief in his squad. “What we’ve got to do is take care of Saturday, but the dialogue is out there, and for that, I respect it,” Bielema said. “It’s happened before, and I told our guys, it’s still something in the bag of tricks.”

Late-Game Heroics Keep Illinois Rolling

Illinois showcased its grit with a dramatic 38-31 win over Rutgers last week. Down 31-30 with just 14 seconds left, the Illini were poised for a potential game-winning field goal. Instead, wide receiver Pat Bryant turned a short pass into a thrilling 40-yard touchdown, sealing the victory with just four seconds remaining.

Quarterback Luke Altmyer played a pivotal role, throwing for 249 yards and two touchdowns despite completing just 12 of 26 passes. The Illini’s ability to deliver in crunch time demonstrates the resilience of a team hungry for success.

However, Illinois faces challenges heading into their matchup with Northwestern. Outside linebacker Seth Coleman, a key defensive contributor, is questionable after suffering an injury in the fourth quarter against Rutgers. His status will be closely monitored.

Northwestern’s Struggles and Focus on Rebuilding

For Northwestern, the season has been one of growing pains and missed opportunities. With a 4-7 record, the Wildcats have dropped four of their last five games, including a humbling 50-6 defeat to Michigan last week. While they trailed by only four points in the second quarter, Michigan rattled off 40 unanswered points to end the game.

Head coach David Braun remains determined to motivate his team, emphasizing the importance of finishing strong. “The product we put on that field [against Michigan] is not us. We have to be better,” Braun said. “In our last guaranteed opportunity together, we have to send this team out the right way.”

Offensive Woes for the Wildcats

Sophomore quarterback Jack Lausch has struggled in recent weeks, going 31-for-56 for 307 yards with two interceptions over the last two games. Northwestern’s offensive line woes compound the issue, with nine sacks allowed in their matchups against No. 2 Ohio State and Michigan.

Despite these challenges, Braun expressed confidence in Lausch’s potential. “It can be really easy to point out issues at quarterback when the offense is not operating at the level you want. But football success takes all 11 players functioning at a high level,” he said.

The Stakes at Wrigley Field

As Illinois and Northwestern prepare for their showdown, both teams face different motivations. For Illinois, a victory could boost their postseason profile and help solidify a higher bowl game placement. Meanwhile, Northwestern looks to salvage pride and end a tough season on a positive note.

Key Matchup Factors

1. Illinois’ Offense vs. Northwestern’s Defense
   Luke Altmyer and Illinois’ passing game will look to exploit a Wildcats defense that has struggled against top-tier opponents.
2. Turnover Battle
   Mistakes have plagued Northwestern this season. Illinois, on the other hand, thrives on capitalizing on turnovers—a trend that could tip the scales on Saturday.
3. Mental Fortitude
   Illinois has shown its ability to stay composed in tight games, while Northwestern’s resilience will be tested after a string of demoralizing losses.

Outlook and Predictions

Illinois enters the game as heavy favorites, with their postseason ambitions providing plenty of motivation. Northwestern, meanwhile, faces an uphill battle, requiring a near-flawless performance to upset the ranked Illini.

Whether it’s Illinois continuing their march toward a coveted CFP spot or Northwestern closing their season with pride, Saturday’s game promises drama and high stakes.

Conclusion

As Illinois looks to finish the regular season on a high note, their clash with Northwestern at Wrigley Field offers an opportunity to strengthen their postseason credentials. With coach Bielema’s “never say never” mindset and a history of clutch performances, the Illini are well-poised for another strong showing. Northwestern, meanwhile, will aim to defy the odds and deliver one final moment of glory in a challenging season.