Northwestern Wildcats vs Indiana Hoosiers Picks and Predictions October 5th 2024

Indiana is the heavy favorite on the road as they head into this week six matchup against Northwestern with a 5-0 record. The game is set for 3:30 ET at Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium in Evanston, with BTN handling the broadcast. Northwestern comes in at 2-2 for the season, and the over/under line is currently at 42.5 points.

Indiana vs. Northwestern Key Information

Indiana heads into Week 6 with a perfect 5-0 record, and our projections give them a 100% chance of being bowl-eligible. They are ranked 16th in our power rankings and have a 7.2% chance of winning the Big Ten. The Hoosiers also have the 11th best odds to make the CFB playoff at 38.4%.

Indiana has been favored in four of their five games this season and are 3-1 against the spread. They have an average scoring margin of +35.8 points per game and are 3-1 ATS as the favorite.

The over/under line for this week is 42.5 points, which is lower than any of their previous games. Indiana’s games have averaged 61.8 points, and their average over/under line has been 49.9 points, with a +7.4 margin.

Indiana’s offense has been one of the best in college football, ranking 2nd in our offensive power rankings heading into week 6. They are also 3rd in points scored, averaging 48.8 per game, and have been excellent on third downs, converting 57.4% of their attempts.

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Kurtis Rourke leads the passing game with 1,372 yards and a passer rating of 130. Indiana is 11th in the nation in passing yards, and Rourke has completed 73.2% of his throws, with 11 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. On the ground, Indiana is 12th in rushing attempts, averaging 214.4 yards per game. Justice Ellison has 341 rushing yards, averaging 6 yards per carry, and has scored 5 touchdowns.

Indiana’s defense has been strong this season, ranking 16th nationally by allowing just 13 points per game. They’ve given up only 82.4 rushing yards per game, the 13th-lowest in the country, and 157.6 passing yards per game, ranking 27th.

In their recent game against Maryland, Indiana allowed 28 points but held the Terrapins to 112 rushing yards on 30 attempts. Maryland threw for 289 yards and three touchdowns against Indiana’s defense.

Northwestern enters Week 6 with a 2-2 record, facing Indiana at home. They rank 86th in our power rankings and have just a 7.8% chance of becoming bowl-eligible. The Wildcats are 1-0 at home this season.

Northwestern’s average scoring margin is +1.5 points per game, and they are 1-1 against the spread. They’ve been favored in one game, going 1-0 ATS as the favorite and 0-1 as the underdog.

The over/under line for this week is 42.5 points. Northwestern’s games have averaged an over/under line of 40 points, with their over/under record at 0-2 and an average total of 33 points per game.

Northwestern’s offense has struggled this season, averaging just 17.2 points per game, placing them 122nd in our offensive power rankings heading into week 6. Their passing game has been particularly weak, with a passer rating of 63, the worst in the nation. They rank 115th in passing yards, averaging 158.5 yards per game, and have converted only 27.5% of their third-down attempts.

Quarterback Mike Wright has thrown for 354 yards and has yet to record a touchdown pass, with one interception and a passer rating of 66. On the ground, Northwestern is averaging 136.5 rushing yards per game. Cam Porter leads the team with 234 rushing yards, three touchdowns, and an average of 5 yards per carry. A.J. Henning has 229 receiving yards and one touchdown.

Northwestern’s defense, ranked 14th nationally, has allowed 15.8 points per game this season. In their recent game against Washington, they gave up 24 points and allowed 521 total yards, including 314 passing yards and 207 rushing yards.

Despite the rough outing, Northwestern’s defense ranks 11th in the nation against the run, allowing just 80 rushing yards per game. Opponents have averaged 222.8 passing yards per game and completed 62.5% of their passes against Northwestern.

Indiana is favored by -13.5 points in their week six matchup against Northwestern. Our projections have the Hoosiers winning 27-20, but we like Northwestern to cover the spread as the underdog.

With the over/under line set at 42.5 points, our model is projecting a combined score of 47 points, making the over the best play for this matchup.

No. 23 Indiana, ‘on a mission,’ Seeks to Stay Unbeaten at Northwestern

Indiana football is off to its best start in over half a century, standing 5-0 for the first time since 1967, which was also the last time the program shared a Big Ten title. Now ranked No. 23, the Hoosiers are playing with purpose.

“This is a team that’s a little bit on a mission,” first-year Indiana coach Curt Cignetti said. “And Northwestern’s the next one up.”

Indiana’s Confidence Builds Amid Offensive Firepower

The Hoosiers (2-0 Big Ten) will look to maintain their momentum when they visit Northwestern (2-2, 0-1) in Evanston, Illinois, on Saturday afternoon. Indiana is eager to avoid the early-game turnovers that hampered them during last week’s 42-28 win against Maryland.

Three turnovers derailed Indiana’s first five drives before the team found its rhythm, scoring touchdowns on four consecutive possessions spanning the first and second halves.

Quarterback Kurtis Rourke, who has been a consistent playmaker all season, threw for 359 yards, averaging 16.3 yards per completion against Maryland. He added three touchdown passes but also threw two interceptions.

“Nobody had any kind of doubt he would bounce back,” Cignetti said, expressing confidence in Rourke’s leadership.

Cignetti’s High Expectations for Hoosiers

Cignetti wasn’t surprised by his team’s hot start. When asked about the team’s undefeated record, he affirmed his belief in the potential of the squad.

“I’m not surprised,” Cignetti said. “I pretty much told everybody when I was hired this is what was possible.”

With their offense firing on all cylinders, Indiana has racked up 244 points in five games, setting the tone for a strong season.

Northwestern Looks to Regroup After Loss

Idle last week, Northwestern is eager to bounce back from a tough 24-5 loss against Washington in the Huskies’ Big Ten debut on Sept. 21. The Wildcats struggled to generate offense, gaining just 112 total yards while quarterback Jack Lausch threw two interceptions and was sacked twice.

Playing without leading rusher Cam Porter (lower body), Northwestern’s ground game faltered, collecting just 59 rushing yards. A critical turnover on downs at the Washington 1-yard line in the fourth quarter further frustrated the Wildcats’ offensive efforts.

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Wildcats Hope for Boost from Cam Porter’s Return

Northwestern head coach David Braun said Porter is “trending in the right direction” and is hopeful he will return against Indiana.

“If there’s anyone that’s going to work their tails off to make sure they’re back, it’s Cam Porter,” Braun said.

Porter’s presence would be a major boost for the Wildcats, who need a strong all-around performance to compete with a surging Indiana squad.

“It’s a hot football team right now,” Braun said of Indiana. “They’re playing really confident, playing really well, off to a 5-0 start. No weaknesses on this team. Played really well in all three phases. … (There’s) an incredible opportunity, incredible challenge in front of us.”

Indiana’s Dynamic Duo in the Passing Game

The Hoosiers will look to continue exploiting their dynamic wide receiver duo of Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper Jr. Both players caught touchdown passes against Maryland, with Sarratt leading the team with seven receptions for 128 yards.

“He’s just consistent. He’s just always gonna be reliable,” Rourke said of Sarratt. “It’s why I like throwing to him so much. He’s reliable. He’s always gonna be there, and he’s someone that I can trust and that’s gonna make a play.”

Northwestern’s Historical Advantage

While Indiana is the team on the rise, Northwestern holds the historical advantage in this matchup. The Wildcats lead the all-time series 47-35-1, having won five of the last six meetings. However, with Indiana riding high on confidence, the Hoosiers will be determined to flip the script.