Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers Picks and Predictions January 5th 2025

Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers January 5th 2025

With the Panthers and Falcons both needing to add their records, they will face off at 1:00 ET on Sunday, January 5th at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. The Falcons are the heavy favorite with a money line of -433, and the point spread favors them by -8 points. The over/under line is set at 48 points, and this NFC South matchup is being televised on CBS.

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Carolina vs. Atlanta Key Information

Heading into week 18, the Panthers sit at 4-12, placing them 32nd in our power rankings and eliminating them from playoff contention. Carolina is 1-4 in division games and 3-8 against the NFC, and their road record stands at 1-6. After snapping a 6-game losing streak with a win over the Cardinals in week 16, they followed that up with a 48-14 loss to the Bucs in week 17.

Carolina is 7-9 against the spread this season, with all 7 of their ATS wins coming as underdogs. Their O/U record is 12-4, with the over hitting in 3 straight games. Panthers games have averaged 49.6 points, compared to an average line of 43.6.

Heading into week 18, the Panthers rank 24th in our offensive power rankings, averaging 18.6 points per game, which is 24th in the NFL. They are 31st in passing yards per game (182.4) on 32 attempts per game, and 20th in rushing yards, with 107.7 per game on 23.8 attempts. Carolina ranks 27th in the league in 3rd-down conversions, with a 34.7% success rate, but they are 11th in red zone conversion percentage.

In week 17, Bryce Young threw for 203 yards and 2 touchdowns, completing 15 of 28 passes, with a passer rating of 100. Adam Thielen led the team with 5 catches for 110 yards and 2 touchdowns, while Raheem Blackshear had 8 carries for 20 yards. The Panthers struggled on 3rd down, converting just 2 of 9 attempts.

Carolina’s defense gave up 551 yards in their 48-14 loss to the Buccaneers, allowing 84.4% of passes to be completed. The Panthers really struggled to defend the big play in the passing game, as the Buccaneers averaged 10.9 yards per attempt and finished with five passing touchdowns. On the ground, Tampa Bay ran for 202 yards, averaging 5.0 yards per attempt.

On third downs, the Panthers allowed the Buccaneers to convert 71.4% of their chances. While Carolina’s defense did manage to get two sacks, they also lost the tackles for loss battle by a margin of -3.

• Carolina has put together a record of 1-2 in their last three games (regular season). In these matchups, they ended with an ATS record of 1-2 and an over-under mark of 3-0.
• Across Carolina’s last ten regular season games, their record sits at 3-7. Their record against the spread in this stretch is 6-4 to go along with an over-under mark of 7-3.

Heading into week 18, the Falcons sit at 8-8, with a 4-1 record in the NFC South. Despite their strong division record, they rank 19th in our power rankings and have just a 13.9% chance of making the playoffs. Against the spread, Atlanta is 6-9-1, with a -1.8 average scoring margin this season.

After snapping a four-game losing streak with wins over the Raiders and Giants in weeks 15 and 16, the Falcons couldn’t keep the momentum going in week 17, losing 30-24 to the Commanders. They were unable to cover as 3.5-point underdogs, and the 54 combined points went over the 46.5-point line.

Heading into week 18, the Falcons rank 15th in our offensive power rankings. They are 16th in the NFL in points per game (21.9) and 10th in yards per game (359.4). Atlanta ranks 8th in passing yards per game (234.9) and 12th in rushing yards per game (124.5). They are 18th in the league in 3rd-down conversion percentage (37.4%).

Michael Penix Jr. threw for 223 yards (19/35) with 1 touchdown and 1 interception in week 17. Bijan Robinson had 90 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns on 17 carries, while Drake London led the team with 7 receptions for 106 yards. Atlanta scored 3 touchdowns on 3 red zone trips but struggled on 3rd down, converting just 2 of 10 attempts.

Despite forcing five sacks and coming away with an interception, the Atlanta Falcons gave up 216 rushing yards on just 36 attempts in their 30-24 overtime loss to the Washington Commanders. The Falcons’ inability to stop the run resulted in an average of 6 yards per attempt for Washington. On the passing end, the Falcons allowed 196 yards through the air, with three passing touchdowns.

Atlanta’s defense allowed Washington to convert on 46.2% of their third down attempts. Even though they did get to the quarterback with five sacks, the Falcons allowed 412 total yards in the game.

Our pick vs. the spread is to take the Panthers to cover as road underdogs in this week 18 matchup between the Panthers and Falcons. Even though the Panthers are 8-point underdogs, we have the Falcons pulling off the upset by a score of 23-19.

If you are looking to play the over/under, we suggest taking the under, as our projections have this game finishing with just 42 combined points. The current O/U line is 48 points.

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Falcons Prepare for Do-or-Die NFC South Showdown Against Panthers

The Atlanta Falcons will host the Carolina Panthers on Sunday with their postseason hopes hanging in the balance. Atlanta (8-8) needs a win combined with a loss by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7) to claim their first NFC South title since 2016. Meanwhile, the Panthers (4-12) aim to play spoiler after being eliminated from playoff contention.

Falcons Leaning on Rookie QB Michael Penix Jr.

Atlanta’s season has taken an unexpected turn with rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. stepping into the starting role for the final weeks. Following the benching of veteran Kirk Cousins, Penix has shown promise despite the team’s overtime loss to Washington last week.

In two starts, the eighth overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft has completed 37 of 62 passes for 425 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions. His first NFL touchdown was a clutch pass to Kyle Pitts late in regulation against the Commanders, keeping Atlanta’s playoff hopes alive.

Head coach Raheem Morris praised the young signal-caller:
“We wanted him to be able to go through the process and learn behind Kirk. Now his time has come. The whole idea with him is just to keep getting better each week. His job is to go out and win football games.”

Panthers’ Bryce Young Shows Growth

For Carolina, rookie quarterback Bryce Young has been one of the few bright spots during a challenging season. After spending time behind Andy Dalton earlier in the year, Young has shown improvement, throwing four touchdowns with no interceptions over the past two games.

The Panthers stunned the Arizona Cardinals in Week 16 with a 36-30 overtime victory before falling 48-14 to Tampa Bay last week. Young acknowledged the challenge Atlanta’s defense presents:
“They have a lot of good players; they play well together. We’ve got to do everything we can to put ourselves in a position to execute.”

Young has thrown for 2,152 yards, 12 touchdowns, and nine interceptions on the season, while adding four rushing scores.

Key Injuries

Carolina’s extensive injury report includes significant absences on both sides of the ball. Linebackers Amare Barno (shoulder) and Josey Jewell (concussion), defensive backs Jaycee Horn (hip), Lonnie Johnson (shoulder/neck), and Nick Scott (illness), defensive lineman A’Shawn Robinson (neck), and offensive lineman Robert Hunt (knee) all missed practice Wednesday.

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For Atlanta, cornerback Kevin King (concussion) did not practice, leaving the Falcons’ secondary potentially shorthanded.

What’s at Stake

The Falcons can only clinch the NFC South title with a win over Carolina and a Buccaneers loss to the Saints. Despite the pressure, Morris emphasized staying focused:
“We can’t scoreboard watch. We’ve got to handle our business first.”

The Panthers, meanwhile, will aim to close their season on a high note while evaluating their young talent for the future.

Outlook

The Falcons hold the edge with home-field advantage and the momentum of a playoff opportunity. However, Young’s recent play and Carolina’s upset potential mean Atlanta can’t afford to take this game lightly.