Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns Picks and Predictions January 4th 2025

Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns January 4th 2025

ABC is set to televise the week 18 AFC North matchup between the Ravens and Browns, which kicks off at 4:30 ET on Saturday, January 4th. The Ravens are heavily favored with a money line of -1951, and the point spread is -17.5 in their favor. The over/under line is currently at 41.5 points.

Cleveland vs. Baltimore Key Information

Teams: Browns at Ravens
Where: M&T Bank Stadium Baltimore
Date: Saturday, January 4th
Betting Odds BAL -1951 | CLE +971 O/U 41.5

The Browns Can Win If…

Heading into week 18, the Browns are ranked 31st in our NFL power rankings and have a 0.0% chance of making the playoffs. Cleveland has lost five straight games, including a 20-3 defeat to the Dolphins in week 17. The Browns were 3-point underdogs at home but couldn’t cover the spread, dropping their record to 4-12 ATS this season. They are 0-4 as favorites and 4-8 as underdogs.

Cleveland’s O/U record is 6-10, with the under hitting in four straight games. Their matchups have averaged 40.5 points per game, with an average line of 41.0.

Heading into week 18, the Browns rank 32nd in our offensive power rankings. They are 29th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 15.5, and 27th in yards per game with 305.2. Despite leading the league in passing attempts, they are 20th in passing yards per game, averaging 208.2. Cleveland ranks 23rd in rushing attempts and 28th in rushing yards per game, with 97. They are 29th in the NFL in 3rd-down conversion percentage.

In week 17, the Browns scored just 3 points, all in the 2nd quarter, in a 20-3 loss to Miami. Dorian Thompson-Robinson threw for 170 yards on 24/47 passing, with 1 interception. Jerry Jeudy led the team with 12 catches for 94 yards, while D’Onta Foreman had 49 rushing yards on 13 carries. Cleveland failed to score on any of their 3 red zone trips but converted 7 of 17 3rd-down attempts.

In their 20-3 loss to the Dolphins, the Browns’ defense allowed Miami to convert 84.6% of their passes. Despite this, the Browns’ defense allowed just 206 passing yards and limited the Dolphins to 18.2% on third down. The Browns’ defense also had four sacks in the game.

Cleveland’s run defense was also strong, allowing just 74 yards on 27 attempts (2.7 yards per attempt). However, the Browns’ offense struggled, scoring just three points in the game.

Over their last three regular season games, the Browns have gone 0-3 straight up. Their record against the spread in this stretch is 0-3 to go along with an over-under mark of 0-3.
Across Cleveland’s last ten regular season games, their record sits at 2-8. Their record against the spread in this stretch is 2-8 to go along with an over-under mark of 4-6.

The Ravens Can Win If…

Heading into week 18, the Ravens sit atop the AFC North with an 11-5 record and a three-game winning streak. After a week 13 loss to the Eagles, Baltimore has bounced back with wins over the Giants, Steelers, and Texans, including a 29-point victory over Houston in week 17. The Ravens were 6.5-point favorites in that game and easily covered the spread, improving their ATS record to 9-6-1.

Our power rankings have Baltimore 2nd in the NFL, and they have a 94.2% chance of winning the AFC North. They’ve already clinched a playoff spot, and their O/U record this season is 12-4, with their games averaging 52.1 points per game.

Heading into week 18, the Ravens are averaging 30.2 points per game, which ranks 3rd in the NFL, and they lead the league in total yards per game with 424.2. Despite ranking 30th in passing attempts, Baltimore is 6th in passing yards per game, averaging 238.6. They lean heavily on the run game, ranking 2nd in both rushing attempts and rushing yards per game (185.6). On 3rd down, the Ravens have been excellent, converting 48% of their attempts, which ranks 2nd in the NFL.

Lamar Jackson posted a passer rating of 143 in week 17, throwing for 168 yards and 2 touchdowns on 10/15 passing. Derrick Henry rushed for 147 yards on 27 carries, while Mark Andrews led the team with 68 receiving yards. Baltimore scored 31 points against the Texans, including 14 in the 3rd quarter.

For the Ravens, their defense was dominant in their most recent game, coming away with five sacks and allowing just 58 rushing yards on 17 attempts in a 31-2 win over the Texans. Baltimore gave up only 153 passing yards, with Houston managing just 4.8 yards per attempt through the air. They also kept the Texans out of the endzone, not allowing a single touchdown.

The Ravens limited Houston to a 26.7% conversion rate on third down and finished with one interception. Baltimore’s defense also won the quarterback hit battle, finishing with four more hits on the quarterback than the Texans.

The Ravens have posted a 2-1 record in their previous three games. This includes going 1-2 vs. the spread and posting an over-under mark of 2-1.
Baltimore has put together a record of 6-4 in their last ten games (regular season). Their record vs the spread sits at 4-5-1 in these matchups, while posting a 5-4-1 over-under mark.

The Lean

Our pick vs. the spread is to take the Ravens to cover as 17.5-point favorites in this week 18 matchup between the Browns and Ravens. Our projected final score is 35-12 in favor of the Ravens.

For the over/under, with the line sitting at 41.5 points, we have these teams combining for 47 points, making the over our recommended play.

Heading into the home stretch@Lj_era8 pic.twitter.com/TBpZBIyhfN
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) January 1, 2025

Ravens Poised to Avenge Earlier Loss to Browns

The Baltimore Ravens are gearing up to close the regular season in dominant fashion as they host the Cleveland Browns on Saturday. With revenge on their minds and momentum on their side, the Ravens aim to secure a victory and solidify their position in the AFC North.

Baltimore’s Playoff Push

The Ravens (11-5) have hit their stride at the perfect time, coming off an emphatic 31-2 win over the Houston Texans on Christmas Day. With a one-game lead over the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC North, Baltimore enters the game as heavy favorites to avenge their earlier 29-24 loss to Cleveland.

Lamar Jackson’s Historic Season

Rushing Record: Jackson set the all-time career rushing record for quarterbacks with 6,110 yards, surpassing Michael Vick.
Efficiency: The dual-threat QB has thrown 39 touchdown passes against just four interceptions this season.
MVP Contender: Jackson’s electrifying performances have positioned him as a top candidate for his third MVP award.

Baltimore’s offense is firing on all cylinders, and their defense has been equally imposing, allowing just two points in their last outing.

“Lamar is playing at an all-time level,” said coach John Harbaugh. “His consistency and leadership have been phenomenal this season.”

Cleveland’s Struggles

The Browns (3-13) are limping into the final week of the season, mired in a five-game losing streak. While Cleveland upset Baltimore earlier in the season, their recent performances suggest a much different outcome is likely this time around.

Quarterback Carousel

Dorian Thompson-Robinson: The rookie QB has struggled mightily, completing just 24 of 47 passes for 170 yards with six interceptions and no touchdowns in recent games.
Bailey Zappe: Acquired from the Patriots, Zappe may get the start, making him the Browns’ 40th different starting QB since 1999.
Jameis Winston: Nursing a shoulder injury, Winston could be used in an emergency role.

Offensive Woes

The Browns rank last in the NFL in points per game (15.5) and have the most interceptions in the league (21, tied with Tennessee).

“Our offense has to step up,” said coach Kevin Stefanski. “We need to protect the football and create opportunities.”

Key Matchups to Watch

Baltimore’s Defense vs. Cleveland’s Struggling Offense

Ravens’ Defensive Dominance: Baltimore has allowed just 13 points combined in their last two games.
Browns’ Offensive Futility: Cleveland has failed to score more than 20 points in six straight games.

Ground Game Control

Ravens’ Rushing Attack: Led by Jackson and a stable of versatile backs, Baltimore thrives on controlling the clock.
Browns’ Backfield: Injuries to Jerome Ford and Pierre Strong leave Cleveland with limited options.

Revenge Factor

The Ravens will look to correct the mistakes that cost them the game in October. Expect a more disciplined effort, especially in the closing moments.

Injury Report