Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers Picks and Predictions November 17th 2024

The Packers are favored on the road in their week 11 matchup against the Bears at 1:00 ET on Sunday, November 17th at Soldier Field in Chicago. The Bears‘ money line odds are +219, while the Packers’ odds are -269. FOX is handling the television coverage of this NFC North matchup, and the Packers are -6.5 point favorites, with the over/under line set at 41.5 points.

Green Bay vs. Chicago Key Information

• Teams: Packers at Bears
• Where: Soldier Field Chicago
• Date: Sunday, November 17th
• Betting Odds GB -269 | CHI +219 O/U 41.5

The Packers Can Win If…

Heading into week 11, the Packers have a 77.5% chance of making the playoffs, but our power rankings have them 5th in the NFL despite being 3rd in the NFC North. Green Bay is 6-3, but they are 0-2 in division games and 2-3 in conference games. They are 3-2 at home and 3-1 on the road.

After winning four straight, the Packers lost to the Lions in week 9, failing to cover the spread as 2.5-point underdogs. This was their third straight ATS loss, putting them at 4-5 this season. Their O/U record is 4-4-1, with their games averaging 47.1 points per game.

Jordan Love’s passer rating has decreased in each of his last three games, going from 95 in week 7 to 73 in week 8 and 69 in week 9 against the Lions, where he threw for 273 yards on 23/39 passing with one interception. In week 9, the Packers struggled on 3rd down, converting only 3 of 12 attempts, and scored just once in four red zone trips. Jayden Reed led the receiving corps with 5 catches for 113 yards, while Josh Jacobs rushed for 95 yards on 13 carries.

Green Bay ranks 12th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 11, averaging 25.6 points per game, which is 7th in the NFL. They are 3rd in the league in passing yards per game (390) and 7th in passing yards, with 235.2 per game. The Packers rank 16th in red zone conversion percentage and 18th in 3rd-down conversion rate.

Despite holding the Lions to 137 passing yards in their most recent game, the Packers’ defense gave up 124 rushing yards on 32 attempts. The Packers lost 24-14, with the Lions finding success on the ground, averaging 3.9 yards per attempt. Green Bay allowed Detroit to convert 33.3% of their third down attempts and the Lions’ quarterbacks completed 81.8% of their passes.

Green Bay’s defense managed just one sack in the game but did have a positive number in both the QB hit and tackles for loss differentials.

• Spanning across their last three games, Green Bay have gone 2-1. Their record vs the spread in these matchups is less impressive at 0-3, while posting an over-under record of 1-2.
• The Packers have gone 6-4 over their last ten regular season games. The team’s record vs the spread was just 5-5, in addition to an over-under mark of 4-5-1.

The Bears Can Win If…

After three straight losses, the Bears are now 4-5 on the season, putting them 4th in the NFC North. Their most recent defeat came at home against the Patriots in week 10, where they were 6-point favorites but lost 19-3. Chicago also lost on the road to the Cardinals in week 9 and the Commanders in week 8.

Heading into week 11, the Bears have a 4.3% chance of making the playoffs and a 0.1% chance of winning the division. They rank 23rd in our NFL power rankings. Chicago has a +0.9 scoring margin and is 5-4 against the spread, but they have failed to cover in three consecutive games. Their O/U record is 3-6, with the under hitting in three straight.

Heading into week 11, the Bears rank 24th in our offensive power rankings. They are 21st in the NFL in points per game, averaging 19.4, and 30th in passing yards per game with 169.6, despite ranking 13th in passing attempts. Chicago also ranks 30th in the league in yards per game (277.7) and 29th in 3rd-down conversion percentage. However, they have been efficient in the red zone, converting 61.9% of their opportunities, which ranks 3rd in the NFL.

Caleb Williams has struggled recently, posting a passer rating of 63 in week 10 after throwing for 120 yards on 16/30 passing. He has not thrown a touchdown pass in the last three games. The Bears’ offensive line has also struggled, allowing 9 sacks in week 10. Chicago has failed to score in the 4th quarter in each of the last two games, and they only managed 3 points in week 10, coming in the 2nd quarter.

In their 19-3 loss to the Patriots, the Bears’ defense allowed just 184 passing yards but struggled against the run, giving up 144 yards on 35 attempts. They held New England to a 35.7% conversion rate on third down and picked off one pass. However, the Bears’ defense only managed one sack and lost the tackles for loss battle by -13.

The Bears’ defense limited the Patriots to 7.4 yards per attempt in the passing game, but New England was able to control the game on the ground, finishing with 328 total yards. Chicago gave up one touchdown through the air and allowed the Patriots to possess the ball for 35 minutes in the game.

• Chicago has put together a record of 2-1 over their past three games. In terms of betting, the team went 2-1 ATS in these matchups. Their over/under record in these matchups is 2-1.
• Chicago has put together a record of 9-1 in their last ten games (regular season). Their record vs the spread sits at 8-1-1 in these matchups, while posting a 6-4 over-under mark.

The Lean

Our pick vs. the spread is to take the Bears to cover as home underdogs. With the point spread sitting at +6.5 in favor of the Bears, we are projecting them to win and cover by a score of 26-19.

For an over/under pick, we are leaning towards taking the over, with a projected combined score of 45 points and the O/U line at 41.5 points.

With Bears Down, North Bully Packers Arrive in Chicago

The Green Bay Packers (6-3), fresh off a bye week, will travel to Soldier Field on Sunday to face their long-time rivals, the Chicago Bears (4-5). The Packers aim to extend their 10-game winning streak against the Bears, a dominance that has underscored the gap between these two NFC North franchises in recent years.

Packers Riding Momentum, Health on Their Side

Green Bay has found its groove offensively, scoring at least 24 points in four of their last five games. The bye week has also allowed quarterback Jordan Love to recover from lingering knee and groin injuries, which coach Matt LaFleur believes will elevate Love’s play:

“Certainly, when you’re limited in your lower half as a quarterback, it can have a big effect on your ability to move or throw accurately. He’s fully healthy now, and that’s huge for us,” LaFleur said.

Love has quietly led a Green Bay offense that boasts balance and depth. Running back Josh Jacobs, who called his unit’s pursuit of “perfection” the most exciting part of the season, continues to power a ground game that complements Love’s improving efficiency through the air.

While the Packers sit at 6-3 overall, they’re 0-2 in divisional play, adding urgency to this matchup. Green Bay’s defense has also been a difference-maker, helping fuel their streak against the Bears with timely stops and a +19 turnover differential in the series over the last 10 games.

Bears Seek Stability Amid Offensive Struggles

The Bears’ season has been marked by inconsistency, particularly on offense. After a dismal 19-3 loss to New England last week, Chicago made a bold move by firing offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, replacing him with Thomas Brown, who served as the team’s passing game coordinator.

Chicago coach Matt Eberflus defended the midseason shake-up:

“They just want to do more,” Eberflus said of his players. “Individually and as a group. They want to be more productive and score points for our football team.”

Quarterback Caleb Williams, the No. 1 overall draft pick, has faced significant challenges behind an injury-riddled offensive line. Williams has been sacked 38 times, and the Bears released veteran guard Nate Davis earlier this week, further complicating the situation.

Williams’ struggles have been exacerbated by inconsistent protection, limited weapons, and turnovers. He has six interceptions in the past four games, and the Bears have now gone 23 straight possessions without a touchdown, a streak they’ll need to break to have any chance against Green Bay.

Key Matchups

Jordan Love vs. Bears’ Pass Defense: With Love fully healthy and the Bears struggling to generate pressure, Green Bay’s quarterback could pick apart Chicago’s secondary.

Caleb Williams vs. Packers’ Defense: Williams will need to overcome Green Bay’s opportunistic defense, which has repeatedly stifled the Bears in recent matchups.

Josh Jacobs and Green Bay’s Run Game: The Packers’ ability to control the tempo through their run game could be critical in extending their dominance.

Thomas Brown’s Offensive Adjustments: With the Bears’ offense sputtering, Brown’s play-calling will be under the spotlight. Can he inject life into a unit averaging just 277.6 yards per game?

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Outlook

The Bears face an uphill battle to snap their 10-game losing streak against Green Bay, especially given their offensive woes and the Packers’ momentum coming off a bye. Chicago’s midseason coaching adjustments could yield long-term results, but expecting immediate improvements against a surging Packers team may be optimistic.

Prediction: Packers 27, Bears 13