Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers Picks and Predictions December 1st 2024

The Bengals are favored at -152 on the money line as they host the Steelers at 1:00 ET on Sunday, December 1st at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati. The Bengals are -3 point favorites on the point spread. This week 13 AFC North matchup is being televised on CBS. The over/under line is set at 47 points.

Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati Key Information

• Teams: Steelers at Bengals
• Where: Paycor Stadium Cincinnati
• Date: Sunday, December 1st
• Betting Odds CIN -152 | PIT +127 O/U 47

The Steelers Can Win If…

Despite a week 12 loss to the Browns, the Steelers remain atop the AFC North with an 8-3 record. Our projections give them a 94.5% chance of making the playoffs and a 43.0% chance of winning the division. Pittsburgh currently ranks 10th in our NFL power rankings.

So far, the Steelers have an average scoring margin of +6 and are 8-3 against the spread. They are 4-0 ATS as underdogs and 4-3 as favorites. Their O/U record is 6-5, with their games averaging 39.8 points compared to an average line of 40.4.

Heading into week 13, the Steelers sit 17th in our offensive power rankings. They rank 14th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 22.9, and are 18th in yards per game with 328. Pittsburgh has leaned heavily on the run game, ranking 2nd in rushing attempts and 8th in rushing yards per game (135.2). On the other hand, they are 31st in passing attempts and 26th in passing yards per game, averaging 192.8.

Russell Wilson had a strong performance in week 12, posting a passer rating of 116 with 270 yards and a touchdown on 21/28 passing. Calvin Austin III led the team with 78 receiving yards, while Jaylen Warren had 45 rushing yards on 11 carries. Pittsburgh scored 13 points in the 4th quarter against the Browns, converting 7 of 16 third downs and going 1/2 in the red zone.

In their 24-19 loss to the Browns, the Steelers’ defense held Cleveland to just a 10% third-down conversion rate. They allowed 219 passing yards on 18 completions and limited the Browns to 85 rushing yards on 27 attempts. Despite their strong coverage, the Steelers didn’t give up any passing touchdowns but managed just one sack and struggled in the backfield, losing the tackles for loss battle by 10.

The Steelers forced one interception and gave up 304 total yards, with 66.7% of their passes being completed. The Browns’ ground game was effective, averaging 8.1 yards per attempt.

• Through their last three games, the Steelers have a record of 2-1. Against the spread, the team is 2-1 in these same games while going 2-1 on the over/under.
• Pittsburgh has put together a record of 7-3 in their last ten games (regular season). In these matchups, they ended with an ATS record of 7-3 and an over-under mark of 6-4.

The Bengals Can Win If…

After snapping a two-game losing streak with a win over the Raiders in week 9, the Bengals have dropped two straight, including a 34-27 loss to the Chargers in week 11. Cincinnati was a 1-point underdog in that game and couldn’t cover the spread, bringing their ATS record to 6-5 this season. They are 4-3 as favorites and 2-2 as underdogs. The over has hit in four straight Bengals games, and their O/U record is 8-3.

Heading into week 13, the Bengals have a 4-7 record and rank 15th in our NFL power rankings. They have a +0.1 scoring margin this season and a 13% chance of making the playoffs. Cincinnati is 1-4 at home and 3-3 on the road. In division games, they are 1-2, and they are 2-5 in conference play.

Joe Burrow has been putting up big numbers for the Bengals, throwing for 356 yards (28/50) and 3 touchdowns in week 11, following his 428-yard, 4-touchdown game in week 10. In week 9, he had a 5-touchdown performance with 251 yards. Against the Chargers in week 11, Tee Higgins led the team with 9 catches for 148 yards, while Chase Brown rushed for 86 yards on 22 carries.

Heading into week 13, the Bengals are 4th in our offensive power rankings. They lead the NFL in passing yards per game (262.7) and are 6th in points per game, averaging 27. On 3rd down, they convert 45.2% of the time, which ranks 5th in the league.

In their 34-27 loss to the Chargers, the Bengals’ defense struggled to stop the run, giving up 155 rushing yards on just 25 attempts, including a concerning 6.2 yards per attempt. Despite this, they did manage to hold the Chargers to a 27.3% conversion rate on third down.

Cincinnati’s defense also recorded two sacks and limited the Chargers to a 47.2% completion rate. However, they allowed 280 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, and a total of 435 yards in the game. Additionally, the Bengals lost the tackles for loss battle, finishing with -1 compared to the Chargers.

• Over their last three regular season games, the Bengals have gone 1-2 straight up. The team’s record vs the spread was just 1-2, in addition to an over-under mark of 3-0.
• Over their last ten regular season games, the Bengals have gone 4-6 straight up. In these matchups, they ended with an ATS record of 3-6-1 and an over-under mark of 8-2.

The Lean

Our pick vs. the spread is to take the Steelers to cover as road underdogs in this week 13 matchup between the Steelers and Bengals. Right now, the point spread lines have the Steelers at +3, making them our pick to cover, even though we have the Bengals pulling off the upset by a score of 27-25.

For an over/under pick, we really like the over, with a projected combined score of 52 points and the line sitting at just 47 points. This is a great spot to take the over and capitalize on what looks to be a lower line than it should be.

Steelers Seek to Solidify AFC North Lead

The Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3) travel to Cincinnati on Sunday, aiming to bounce back from a tough 24-19 loss to the Cleveland Browns in Week 12. That defeat snapped a five-game winning streak and tightened the AFC North race.

Despite their strong record, the Steelers have struggled against teams with losing records, dropping games to the Cowboys, Colts, and now the Browns. Defensive tackle Cameron Heyward emphasized the need for Pittsburgh to capitalize on critical moments.

“We just didn’t make enough of those critical plays in those moments,” Heyward said. “We’ve stepped up in those critical moments [in wins]. But in those three losses, we haven’t. We’re trying to change that.”

The Steelers remain atop the division but face pressure from the Baltimore Ravens (8-4). A win against the Bengals (4-7) would help maintain their slim lead and set the tone for a tight playoff race.

Bengals Focus on December Reset

For the Cincinnati Bengals, this matchup presents an opportunity to regroup after a bye week. The Bengals have endured a rough stretch, losing three of their past four games. Despite their struggles, head coach Zac Taylor remains optimistic about his team’s ability to play meaningful football in December.

“This is where it means something,” Taylor said. “Regardless of what our record is, you need to play your best football in December. We need that now, more than ever.”

Before the bye, Cincinnati fell 34-27 to the Los Angeles Chargers in a game where they erased a 21-point deficit only to lose in the final seconds. Joe Burrow threw for 356 yards and three touchdowns in that contest, showcasing the Bengals’ offensive potential when clicking.

Key Matchups and Storylines

Joe Burrow vs. Steelers Defense

Burrow, who has been battling a wrist injury but practiced fully this week, will face a Steelers defense that thrives in high-pressure moments. The Bengals’ quarterback threw for 356 yards in his last outing and will look to build on that performance.

Pittsburgh’s defense could be without linebacker Alex Highsmith, who has missed two games with an ankle injury. His absence would create opportunities for Burrow to exploit.

Steelers’ Ground Game vs. Bengals’ Run Defense

Pittsburgh’s running game has been inconsistent this season, and they’ll look to establish it early against a Bengals defense that has struggled in critical moments. Cincinnati’s defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins missed practice due to illness, which could weaken their interior line.

Key Injuries

• Steelers: Linebacker Alex Highsmith (ankle) remains questionable, while the rest of the defense appears healthy.
• Bengals: Left tackle Orlando Brown (leg) was limited, potentially signaling a return to bolster the offensive line. Wide receiver Charlie Jones (groin) also returned to practice.

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Prediction

The Steelers have a knack for pulling out gritty wins, but their inconsistency against teams with losing records leaves the door open for Cincinnati. If Joe Burrow and the Bengals can rediscover their offensive rhythm, they could take advantage of Pittsburgh’s injury concerns.

Final Score Prediction: Bengals 24, Steelers 21