Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs Picks and Predictions November 17th 2024

Bills vs Chiefs November 17th 2024

The Bills are favored at -137 on the money line as they host the Chiefs at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY. This week 11 AFC matchup is set for 4:25 ET on Sunday, with CBS handling the television coverage. The Chiefs are +115 on the money line, and the Bills are -2.5 point favorites, with the over/under line at 45.5 points.

Kansas City vs. Buffalo Key Information

The Chiefs narrowly escaped week 10 with a 16-14 win over the Broncos, improving to 9-0 on the season. Kansas City ranks 4th in our NFL power rankings and has a 97.1% chance of winning the AFC West and a 100% chance of making the playoffs. They are 3-0 in division games and 5-0 in conference games, and they are 4-0 on the road and 5-0 at home.

Kansas City is 4-4-1 against the spread this season and has failed to cover in three straight games. They were 7-point favorites against the Broncos but only won by 2. Their O/U record is 4-5, with their games averaging 42.2 points compared to the 44.8-point line.

Patrick Mahomes threw for 266 yards and a touchdown in week 10, completing 28 of 42 passes against the Broncos. He finished with a passer rating of 91, avoiding interceptions but was sacked four times. Kareem Hunt led the team with 35 rushing yards on 14 carries, and he also topped the receiving charts with 65 yards on 7 catches. The Chiefs scored just 3 points in the second half, converting 7 of 16 third-down attempts and going 1 for 4 in the red zone.

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Travis Kelce had back-to-back 100-yard games before week 10, with 90 yards in week 8 and 100 yards on 14 catches in week 9. Kansas City ranks 9th in passing yards per game (231.6) and leads the NFL in third-down conversion percentage (52%). However, they are 25th in red zone conversion percentage, despite being 5th in red zone attempts.

The Chiefs’ defense gave up two passing touchdowns in their 16-14 win over the Broncos, but overall, they played well, holding Denver to just 182 passing yards. The Broncos completed 73.3% of their passes and converted on 53.8% of their third down attempts. Kansas City defended the run effectively, allowing only 78 yards on 23 attempts (3.4 yards per attempt).

Kansas City’s defense recorded two sacks and limited the Broncos to 260 total yards in the game. Although they gave up a couple of big plays resulting in touchdowns, the Chiefs were able to come out on top with a strong overall defensive performance.

The Bills extended their winning streak to five games with a 30-20 win over the Colts in week 10, bringing their record to 8-2. Buffalo sits atop the AFC East and is 3-0 in division play. Our projections give them a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs and winning the division. They rank 3rd in our NFL power rankings heading into week 11.

Buffalo has a +9.7 scoring margin and is 6-4 against the spread this season. They covered the 4.5-point spread against the Colts but failed to cover in week 9 against the Dolphins. The over has hit in two straight Bills games, including week 10, when they and the Colts combined for 50 points, surpassing the 47-point line.

Josh Allen threw for 280 yards in week 10, completing 22 of 37 passes, but he didn’t find the end zone and had two interceptions. Before that, he had a 95 passer rating in week 9 and a 102 rating in week 8. James Cook led the rushing attack in week 10 with 80 yards on 19 carries, while Mack Hollins had 4 catches for 86 yards. Buffalo ranks 13th in passing yards per game with 222.5 and 13th in passing attempts.

Buffalo is 3rd in our offensive power rankings, averaging 29 points per game. They are 14th in the NFL in total yards per game, with 343.2, and 15th in rushing yards, averaging 120.7 per game. The Bills have struggled in the red zone, ranking 30th in conversion percentage, despite being 2nd in red zone attempts.

Buffalo’s defense came up with three interceptions in their 30-20 win over the Colts, despite allowing a completion percentage of 74.3%. The defense also forced 4 sacks and limited the Colts to a 36.4% conversion rate on third down. Indianapolis finished with 240 passing yards and 121 rushing yards on just 22 attempts.

Buffalo’s defense gave up two passing touchdowns in the game and allowed the Colts to rush for 121 yards on just 22 attempts. The Bills’ offense put together 361 yards in the game.

Our pick vs. the spread is to take the Chiefs to cover as road underdogs in this week 11 matchup between the Chiefs and Bills. The point spread line has the Chiefs at +2.5, and we have them winning by a score of 26-19.

For this matchup, we have a point total of 45, making the under a good pick compared to the current O/U line of 45.5.

Chiefs vs. Bills: Clash of AFC Titans with Playoff Implications

The Kansas City Chiefs (9-0) are aiming to become the first NFL team to complete an undefeated 17-game regular season, but the Buffalo Bills (8-2) stand in their way this Sunday in a game with serious playoff implications. In what might be the most anticipated matchup of the season, the Chiefs head to Buffalo in Week 11 with both teams jockeying for postseason positioning.

A Playoff Feel in the Regular Season

This showdown carries the weight of a playoff game, given the recent history between these two AFC powerhouses. The Chiefs, who have come from behind to win eight games this season, are chasing perfection while the Bills are looking to avenge past heartbreaks, including a narrow loss in last season’s AFC Divisional Playoff at the hands of Kansas City.

While Kansas City is trying to emulate the 2007 New England Patriots with an unbeaten regular season, the Bills are attempting to prove they are legitimate Super Bowl contenders by taking down the reigning back-to-back champs.

Recent History: Bills Have Had the Edge in Regular Season

Despite Kansas City’s playoff triumphs, Buffalo has had the upper hand in regular-season meetings, winning the past three matchups, all at Arrowhead Stadium. However, this will be the first time since 2020 that the Chiefs have visited Buffalo. The last time the Bills beat Kansas City at home was in 2017.

Quarterback Battle: Mahomes vs. Allen

This game features a duel between two of the NFL’s most electrifying quarterbacks: Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen.

Mahomes has led the Chiefs to an undefeated start, despite some struggles with turnovers. He’s thrown 12 touchdown passes against nine interceptions this season, a less-than-ideal ratio for the reigning two-time MVP. However, Kansas City’s league-best third-down conversion rate (52 percent) has helped them control games.

Meanwhile, Allen, despite a few late-season interceptions, has been spectacular. He’s thrown 17 touchdown passes and leads an offense that averages 29 points per game, tied for third in the NFL. Allen has shown poise in critical situations, helping the Bills rally in several games this season.

Injury Woes for the Bills’ Offense

Buffalo’s challenge will be compounded by injuries to key offensive players. Rookie wide receiver Keon Coleman is out with a wrist injury, and wide receiver Amari Cooper is nursing a wrist injury that limited his practice reps. Tight end Dalton Kincaid (knee) remains questionable, which could limit Allen’s options against a formidable Chiefs defense.

Right tackle Spencer Brown also missed practice with an ankle injury, which could create issues in pass protection against Kansas City’s fierce pass rush led by Chris Jones.

Chiefs Defense: Quietly Dominant

Kansas City’s defense has been a revelation this season, allowing just 17.9 points per game (fifth in the NFL) and ranking fourth in yards allowed (289.9). Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s unit has excelled in creating pressure and disguising coverages, which could pose a challenge for Allen, especially with his receiving corps banged up.

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Chris Jones, who Mahomes lauded as “one of the best interior D-linemen in the game,” will be a focal point, especially given Buffalo’s offensive line injuries.

Bills Defense: Turning Takeaways into Wins

Buffalo leads the NFL in turnover margin at plus-13, thanks in large part to a defense that has generated 19 takeaways. Their red-zone defense ranks eighth in the league, allowing touchdowns on only 47.2 percent of incursions. This could be crucial in stopping Mahomes and the Chiefs, who convert 53.6 percent of their red-zone opportunities.

What’s at Stake

This game could have a major impact on playoff seeding, especially with the Chiefs eyeing a perfect regular season and the Bills fighting to stay in the mix for a first-round bye. A win for Kansas City would put them on the brink of history, while a victory for Buffalo would keep their hopes alive for home-field advantage in the playoffs.