Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins Picks and Predictions November 3rd 2024

Bills vs Dolphins November 3rd 2024

The Dolphins and Bills will kick off at 1:00 ET on Sunday, November 3rd at Highmark Stadium in Buffalo. The Bills are the heavy favorite with a money line of -278 and are favored by -6 points on the point spread. This AFC East matchup is being televised on CBS, and the over/under line is set at 50 points. Miami’s money line odds are +224.

Miami vs. Buffalo Key Information

After snapping a three-game losing streak with a win over the Patriots in week 5, the Dolphins have now dropped two straight, including a narrow 28-27 loss to the Cardinals in week 8. Miami was favored by 4.5 points at home but couldn’t hold on for the win. The combined 55 points in the game went over the 46.5-point line.

Miami is 2-5 this season and ranks 25th in our NFL power rankings. They have a -8.6 scoring margin and are 1-6 against the spread. Our projections give the Dolphins a 7.4% chance of making the playoffs and a 0.4% chance of winning the AFC East.

Heading into week 9, the Dolphins rank 29th in our offensive power rankings. They are 31st in the NFL in points per game, averaging 13.9, and 21st in yards per game with 318. Miami ranks 25th in passing yards per game (186.3) on 32.1 attempts per game, which ranks 13th. On the ground, they are 9th in both rushing attempts (30.4) and rushing yards per game (131.7). The Dolphins are 17th in the NFL in 3rd-down conversions, with a 38.5% success rate, and they rank 16th in red zone attempts, converting 77.8% of those into touchdowns, which ranks 3rd in the league.

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In week 8, Tua Tagovailoa threw for 234 yards and a touchdown, completing 28 of 38 passes. De’Von Achane led the team in rushing with 97 yards on 10 carries, while Tyreek Hill had 6 receptions for 72 yards. Miami scored 10 points in the 1st quarter and converted 11 of 15 3rd-down attempts, scoring on 3 of 4 red zone trips.

In their most recent game, the Dolphins’ defense gave up 307 passing yards to the Cardinals, allowing two touchdowns and a completion percentage of 72.2%. Miami’s defense struggled on third downs, allowing the Cardinals to convert on 53.8% of their third down attempts. They also failed to record a sack and had a tackles for loss differential of -3.

Miami’s defense did a decent job against the run, allowing just 82 yards on 26 attempts (3.2 yards per attempt). However, overall, the Dolphins gave up 389 total yards in their 28-27 loss to the Cardinals.

Heading into week 9, the Bills sit atop the AFC East with a 6-2 record, including a 2-0 mark in division play. After back-to-back losses in weeks 4 and 5, Buffalo has bounced back with three straight wins, including a 31-10 victory over the Seahawks in week 8. The Bills were favored by 3 points in that game and covered the spread, bringing their ATS record to 5-3 this season.

Our projections give Buffalo a 99.2% chance of making the playoffs and a 98.6% chance of winning the division. They rank 3rd in our NFL power rankings, with an average scoring margin of +10.5 points per game. Their O/U record stands at 4-4, with their games averaging 47 points this season.

Heading into week 9, the Bills are 5th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 28.8. They rank 12th in rushing attempts and yards per game, with 122.2, and are 14th in passing yards per game, despite being 24th in passing attempts. Buffalo ranks 20th in the NFL in 3rd-down conversions, with a 37% success rate, and they are 28th in the league in red zone conversion percentage, despite being 2nd in red zone attempts.

Josh Allen has been playing well, posting a passer rating of 102 in week 8, with 283 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. James Cook led the team in rushing with 111 yards on 17 carries, while Khalil Shakir had 9 receptions for 107 yards. In week 8, the Bills scored in every quarter, putting up 31 points against the Seahawks.

In their most recent game, the Buffalo Bills’ defense was dominant, allowing just 32 rushing yards on 17 attempts against the Seahawks. They also held Seattle to 14.3% on third down and to just 10 points. The Bills’ secondary picked off one pass and limited the Seahawks to 201 passing yards.

Buffalo’s defense pressured the quarterback throughout the game, despite only coming away with one sack. The Bills’ unit also won the tackles for loss and quarterback hit differentials in their 31-10 win over Seattle.

Our pick vs. the spread in this Dolphins vs. Bills matchup is to take the Dolphins to cover as road underdogs. The point spread currently sits at +6 in favor of the Dolphins, and we have the Bills pulling off the upset by a score of 26-25.

For this week nine matchup, we like the Dolphins to cover at 6-point underdogs. As for the over/under, with the line at 50 points, we have these teams combining for 51 points, making the over a good play.

Dolphins Aim to Bounce Back as Tua Tagovailoa Returns for Rematch with Bills

The Miami Dolphins are looking to turn their season around as they prepare to face the division-leading Buffalo Bills, with Tua Tagovailoa back in action after a turbulent few weeks. Their previous meeting in September, a decisive 31-10 loss to Buffalo, proved costly for Miami, as Tagovailoa suffered a concussion that sidelined him for the following four games. In his absence, the Dolphins struggled, managing only one win and averaging a mere 10 points per game. Now with Tagovailoa healthy and under center, Miami heads to Buffalo with renewed determination to claw their way back into the AFC playoff picture.

Tagovailoa’s Return and the Road Ahead for Miami

After missing a critical stretch of the season, Tagovailoa made his return last week, completing 28 of 38 passes for 234 yards and a touchdown in Miami’s narrow 28-27 loss to the Arizona Cardinals. Despite the heartbreaking finish, Tagovailoa’s presence on the field was a welcome sight for the Dolphins, who will need every bit of his leadership to turn things around in the back half of the season.

Reflecting on Miami’s 2-5 start, Tagovailoa emphasized the importance of staying focused and resilient.

“Seventeen games. That’s a long time. A lot of games,” Tagovailoa said. “So whether we’re counted out or we’re not, it doesn’t matter. We’re going to continue to play football. … Anything’s possible. We’re going to continue to trust each other, lean on each other, believe in each other and we’re going to go do it (against the Bills).”

The Challenge of a Dominant Buffalo Team

The Buffalo Bills, sitting atop the AFC East with a 6-2 record, have proven formidable this season. Led by quarterback Josh Allen, they enter Sunday’s game riding a three-game winning streak, with a recent 31-10 victory over the Seattle Seahawks showcasing their offensive firepower and defensive prowess. Allen threw two touchdown passes in that game, while running back James Cook shredded Seattle’s defense, accumulating 111 rushing yards and two touchdowns.

Allen is well aware that Miami is not a team to be taken lightly, regardless of its current record.

“They’ve got some real, real playmakers on the defensive side of the ball,” Allen said. “I know their record doesn’t indicate it, but they’re playing really good football right now. So we got to be ready for whatever they can throw at us. Got to have a good week of practice and again, make adjustments in-game and go from there.”

Defensive Reinforcement for Buffalo with Von Miller’s Return

The Bills are set to welcome back veteran linebacker Von Miller, who has completed a four-game suspension and returned to practice this week. Miller, who has been a dominant force on the defensive line, is expected to bolster a defense that has already been performing at a high level. His enthusiasm for returning to the game is palpable, as he looks forward to focusing solely on football.

“I’m in a great spot. I’m just happy all of that stuff is behind me,” Miller said. “Since I’ve been here with the Buffalo Bills, it’s either been injury or the PUP list or the suspension, and I’m just happy to have all the stuff behind me for the first time in 2 1/2 years and just able to just focus on football.”

Miller’s impact could prove critical in slowing down Tagovailoa and the Dolphins’ offense, particularly in a game where defensive pressure may dictate the outcome.

Injury Concerns for Both Teams

While Miller’s return is a boost for Buffalo, the team is managing several other injury concerns. Offensive tackle Alec Anderson missed Wednesday’s practice for personal reasons, and wide receiver Amari Cooper was limited with a wrist injury.

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On Miami’s side, ten players were absent from practice on Wednesday, including key starters. Cornerback Kader Kohou (neck) and offensive tackle Terron Armstead (rest/knee) were among those sidelined, with linebacker Jordyn Brooks limited due to hamstring and wrist issues. These absences could make an already challenging matchup against Buffalo’s top-tier offense and defense even tougher.

Key Matchups and What’s at Stake

As the Dolphins look to reignite their offense, a healthy Tagovailoa will be key in navigating Buffalo’s resilient defense. The Bills, however, will counter with a potent offense led by Allen and Cook, looking to exploit any vulnerabilities in Miami’s lineup. With both teams fighting for playoff positioning, the outcome of Sunday’s game could have significant implications down the stretch.

Buffalo hopes to maintain its division lead, while Miami seeks a critical win to kickstart their playoff pursuit. In a high-stakes matchup between division rivals, every play will be pivotal as both teams look to capitalize on momentum and build for the crucial weeks ahead.