Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs San Francisco 49ers Picks and Predictions November 10th 2024

Buccaneers vs 49ers November 10th 2024

The 49ers are favored on the road with a money line of -245 as they take on the Buccaneers at 1:00 ET on Sunday, November 10th. The game, being played at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL, is also being televised on FOX. The 49ers are -5.5 point favorites, and the over/under line is set at 51 points.

San Francisco vs. Tampa Bay Key Information

• Teams: 49ers at Buccaneers
• Where: Raymond James Stadium Tampa Bay
• Date: Sunday, November 10th
• Betting Odds SF -245 | TB +204 O/U 51

The 49ers Can Win If…

After dropping two straight games, the 49ers bounced back in week 8 with a 30-24 win over the Cowboys, bringing their record to 4-4. San Francisco was favored by 5.5 points and covered the spread, improving their ATS record to 4-4. The 49ers have been favored in all of their games so far, and their average scoring margin is +3.5 points per game. Their O/U record is 5-3, with an average of 49 combined points in their games.

Heading into week 10, the 49ers rank 6th in our NFL power rankings and have a 40.4% chance of making the playoffs and a 33% chance of winning the NFC West. They are currently 3rd in the division with a 1-2 record. San Francisco is 3-2 at home and 1-2 on the road.

Heading into week 10, the 49ers are 10th in our offensive power rankings. They rank 6th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 26.2 points per game, and are 2nd in total yards with 412.4 per game. San Francisco is 4th in both passing (253.4 yards per game) and rushing (159 yards per game), while ranking 19th in passing attempts and 7th in rushing attempts. They are 6th in the league in 3rd-down conversions and 22nd in red zone conversion percentage, despite being 3rd in red zone attempts.

Brock Purdy bounced back from a 3-interception game in week 7 with a strong performance against the Cowboys in week 8, throwing for 260 yards and a touchdown with a passer rating of 114. George Kittle led the team with 6 catches for 128 yards, and Isaac Guerendo added 85 rushing yards on 14 carries. Deebo Samuel is questionable for week 10 with a rib injury.

Even though the 49ers’ defense allowed 236 passing yards in their 30-24 win over the Cowboys, they forced two interceptions and limited Dallas to 33.3% on third down. San Francisco defended the run well, allowing just 56 yards on 19 attempts (2.9 yards per attempt). The 49ers also had two sacks and came away with six more quarterback hits than the Cowboys.

Despite giving up two passing touchdowns, the 49ers held Dallas to 292 total yards in the game. The Cowboys completed 25 passes, with a completion percentage of 65.8% against San Francisco.

• San Francisco will look to keep things rolling as they have put together a mark of 2-1 over their past three games. This also includes going 2-1 ATS and an over-under mark of 2-1.
• Across San Francisco’s last ten regular season games, their record sits at 5-5. Against the spread, San Francisco went 4-6 in these games and finished with an over-under mark of 6-3-1.

The Buccaneers Can Win If…

After a week 6 win over the Saints, the Buccaneers have now dropped three straight games, including a 30-24 loss to the Chiefs in week 9. Tampa Bay was able to cover the 8.5-point spread in that game, but they couldn’t pull off the upset, bringing their record to 4-5. Despite the losing streak, they rank 11th in our NFL power rankings and have a 40.8% chance of making the playoffs.

The over has hit in six straight Bucs games, including week 9, when they and the Chiefs combined for 54 points. Tampa Bay’s O/U record is 7-2 this season, with their games averaging 55.8 points. They are 5-4 against the spread, with a +1.8 scoring margin.

In our offensive power rankings, the Buccaneers sit 7th in the NFL, and they’re 5th in both points per game (28.8) and yards per game (377.8). They’ve been strong on 3rd down, converting 51.8% of the time, which ranks 2nd in the league. Despite ranking 4th in red zone attempts, they’re 27th in conversion percentage, scoring on just 8.8% of their trips. Tampa Bay has also been quick starters, averaging 7.8 points in the 1st quarter, which is 2nd in the NFL.

Baker Mayfield threw for 200 yards and 2 touchdowns in week 9, posting a passer rating of 112 against the Chiefs. Cade Otton led the team with 8 catches for 77 yards and a touchdown, while Bucky Irving had 24 rushing yards on 7 carries. Tampa Bay scored 10 points in the 3rd quarter and converted all 3 of their red zone opportunities.

In their 30-24 overtime loss to the Chiefs, the Buccaneers’ defense allowed three passing touchdowns and gave up 260 yards through the air. The Chiefs completed 77.3% of their passes and converted 66.7% of their third down attempts. Despite this, Tampa Bay’s defense managed to sack Patrick Mahomes four times and had more tackles for loss than the Chiefs.

Tampa Bay’s run defense held up well, allowing just 3.5 yards per attempt and 124 total rushing yards on 35 attempts. The Bucs’ defense will look to improve on their performance in their next game.

• The Buccaneers have gone 1-2 over their last three regular season games. The team’s record vs the spread was just 1-2, in addition to an over-under mark of 3-0.
• The Buccaneers have gone 6-4 over their last ten regular season games. In these matchups, they ended with an ATS record of 5-5 and an over-under mark of 5-5.

The Lean

Our projected score for this week 10 matchup between the 49ers and Buccaneers is 31-25 in favor of the 49ers. With the 49ers being road favorites at -5.5, we are recommending taking them to cover the spread.

For this game, we have a lean towards taking the over, with a projected combined score of 56 points and the over/under line sitting at 51 points.

Football Picks

When the San Francisco 49ers face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this Sunday, fans eagerly await the possible return of All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey’s absence this season, due to calf and Achilles injuries, has been felt in the 49ers’ offensive lineup. With the team currently holding a 4-4 record, his return could be the boost needed to secure their place in the NFC West playoff race.

McCaffrey’s Injury and Journey to Recovery

McCaffrey missed the entire season after being placed on injured reserve in mid-September. His road to recovery included traveling to Germany to see a specialist, where he was ultimately diagnosed with bilateral Achilles tendinitis. Since resuming limited practice on Monday, the signs of his progress have been promising. Coach Kyle Shanahan expressed optimism about his return, stating, “He’s been awesome these last two days…I expect to see him out there.”

If McCaffrey is indeed cleared to play, it will be his first appearance of the season. His comeback would undoubtedly elevate the 49ers’ offense, bringing a much-needed dynamic element to their lineup as they pursue the NFC West title.

The Impact of McCaffrey’s Return on the 49ers’ Offense

McCaffrey’s skill set as a dual-threat running back—both a powerful runner and a capable receiver—offers a significant upgrade for the 49ers. Last season, McCaffrey led the NFL in yards from scrimmage (2,023), rushing yards (1,459), and was tied for the lead in touchdowns (21). The ability to capitalize on these statistics this season could open up the offense in ways that his substitutes, while capable, have not been able to fully replicate.

While Jordan Mason has stepped up admirably, currently ranked fourth in the NFL with 685 rushing yards and three touchdowns, McCaffrey’s versatility provides the 49ers with options that are challenging for any defense to counter. With quarterback Brock Purdy leading a receiving corps missing Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings, McCaffrey’s return would diversify and strengthen their offensive schemes.

How Tampa Bay’s Defense Plans to Counter McCaffrey

The return of McCaffrey puts the Buccaneers’ defense on alert. Coach Todd Bowles acknowledged the threat McCaffrey adds to an already formidable San Francisco lineup, which includes offensive stars like Deebo Samuel and George Kittle. “It’s just another weapon we’ve got to worry about,” Bowles said. “We’ve got to be sound defensively…(the 49ers are) talented all over the field.”

Tampa Bay’s defense will need to maintain tight coverage and high discipline. The challenge lies in balancing attention among the 49ers’ multiple weapons while ensuring McCaffrey doesn’t exploit gaps for significant yardage. If McCaffrey is integrated seamlessly, it may shift the balance of the game in the 49ers’ favor.

The Buccaneers’ Offensive Strategy: Mayfield and Otton’s Role

Baker Mayfield has emerged as a bright spot for Tampa Bay, leading the league with 23 passing touchdowns and ranking second in passing yards with 2,389. This level of production has been vital, given injuries to key wide receivers like Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. The chemistry between Mayfield and tight end Cade Otton has been crucial to the Buccaneers’ offensive success in recent games. Otton, who led the team in receptions and yards in their last game, continues to step up as a reliable target for Mayfield.

The 49ers’ defense, led by edge rusher Nick Bosa and linebacker Fred Warner, presents a tough challenge for Mayfield, who will likely need to rely on quick, efficient passes to mitigate San Francisco’s strong pass rush. Otton’s ability to find space and create options over the middle will be essential, especially with the 49ers’ pressure coming off the edges.

Game Context: Stakes for Both Teams

With the 49ers just half a game behind the NFC West-leading Arizona Cardinals, a victory on Sunday could significantly boost their playoff aspirations. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers find themselves in a precarious position after a hard-fought overtime loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. Falling to 4-5, Tampa Bay is looking to break a three-game losing streak and keep pace in the NFC South standings.

A victory on Sunday is equally crucial for both teams; for the 49ers, it’s about keeping the NFC West within reach, while the Buccaneers are fighting to stay competitive in a tough NFC South division. The Buccaneers, completing a tough back-to-back, are hoping to turn the tide with a much-needed win.

Potential Game Dynamics and Matchup Implications

McCaffrey’s return could set the tone for the 49ers’ offense, making the Buccaneers’ defensive strategy critical. Tampa Bay’s ability to handle the 49ers’ versatile lineup, especially with McCaffrey’s multi-dimensional threat, will determine how competitive they remain throughout the game.

On the other hand, San Francisco will need to be prepared for Baker Mayfield’s quick-release offense, which has been highly effective. The matchup between Mayfield and the 49ers’ defense, especially with tight end Cade Otton as a key target, will likely influence the game’s rhythm and pace.

Final Thoughts: What McCaffrey’s Return Means for the 49ers’ Season

McCaffrey’s return could bring a turning point for the 49ers. His comeback not only strengthens the team’s offense but also signals a renewed playoff push as they aim to reclaim their position as Super Bowl contenders. The 49ers’ offensive synergy, coupled with a win over Tampa Bay, could give them the momentum to climb the NFC West standings and position themselves for a successful postseason.

For the Buccaneers, Sunday’s game serves as a litmus test of their ability to contend with top teams under pressure. Mayfield’s impressive performances this season and Otton’s emergence add a dynamic that will make the 49ers’ defense work hard for every stop.