Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Denver Broncos Picks and Predictions September 22nd 2024

Bucs seek to add to another strong start, take on Broncos

FOX is set to broadcast the week three non-conference matchup between the Broncos and Buccaneers at 1:00 ET on Sunday, September 22nd. The game, being played at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL, has the Buccaneers as heavy -317 favorites on the money line. Denver is +252 on the money line and +6.5 on the point spread. The over/under line is at 39.5 points.

Denver vs. Tampa Bay Key Information

• Teams: Broncos at Buccaneers
• Where: Raymond James Stadium Tampa Bay
• Date: Sunday, September 22nd
• Betting Odds TB -317 | DEN +252 O/U 39.5

The Broncos Can Win If…

The Broncos are still looking for their first win of the season after falling to the Steelers by a score of 13-6. Denver’s record now sits at 0-2. The Broncos were 2.5-point underdogs heading into the game, and with the 7-point loss, they failed to cover the spread. The combined 19 points was well below the over/under line of 36.5 points.Denver fell behind early, with the Steelers leading 7-0 after the 1st quarter. The Broncos managed to pull within 13-6 with a touchdown from Bo Nix to Courtland Sutton in the 4th quarter, but they couldn’t complete the comeback. In the 3rd quarter, Nix also connected with Josh Reynolds for a 49-yard touchdown.

The Broncos’ offense struggled to sustain drives in their 13-6 loss to the Steelers, as they managed just 13 first downs and 231 total yards. Bo Nix, playing at quarterback, completed 20 of 35 passes for 246 yards and led the team in rushing with 25 yards on four attempts. However, Nix didn’t find the endzone and threw two interceptions.

Josh Reynolds was the leading receiver with 93 yards, including a 49-yard catch. The running game was limited to 64 yards on 19 attempts, and the Broncos were just 1 of 6 on fourth down in the game.

The Broncos’ defense held the Steelers to 110 yards passing in their most recent game, but they still came out on the losing end, falling 13-6. Pittsburgh found success in the running game, gaining 141 yards on 36 attempts, which contributed to their overall 251 yards of offense. Denver allowed one touchdown through the air and a 65% completion rate to Pittsburgh.Despite the loss, the Broncos’ defense did well on third downs, allowing the Steelers to convert just 30.8% of their third-down attempts. Denver also managed two sacks and had more quarterback hits than the Steelers.

• Denver has put together a record of 0-3 in their last three games (regular season). In these matchups, they ended with an ATS record of 1-2 and an over-under mark of 2-1.
• The Broncos have gone 4-6 over their last ten regular season games. In these contests, the team went just 4-6 against the spread, while going 5-5 on the over-under.

The Buccaneers Can Win If…

Despite the Buccaneers’ 20-16 win over the Lions, they failed to cover the spread in their most recent game. Tampa Bay is now 2-0 on the season. The Buccaneers were +7.5 point underdogs going into the game, and with the 4-point win, they improved to 2-0 straight-up. The combined 36 points was well below the over/under line of 52 points.

Tampa Bay jumped out to an early 6-3 lead with a pair of field goals from Chase McLaughlin. After a field goal from Jake Bates, the Buccaneers led 13-6 at halftime. In the 3rd quarter, Baker Mayfield connected with Jalen McMillan for a 10-yard touchdown, putting the Buccaneers ahead for good. The Buccaneers didn’t score in the 4th, while the Lions added a touchdown to make it a 4-point game heading into the 4th.

Despite their 20-16 win over the Lions, the Buccaneers’ offense struggled, managing just 14 first downs and 146 yards passing. Baker Mayfield threw for 185 yards, completing 12 of 19 passes, with one touchdown and one interception. The team’s running game was limited to 70 yards on 23 attempts, with Mayfield leading in rushing with 34 yards and a touchdown.

Tampa Bay’s offense was also sacked five times and had a 20% conversion rate on third down. Chris Godwin was the leading receiver with 117 yards and a touchdown, including a 41-yard reception.

In their 20-16 win over the Lions, the Buccaneers’ defense gave up 463 yards, including 324 passing yards. Despite allowing 139 rushing yards on 27 attempts, they managed to keep Detroit out of the endzone, as the Lions failed to score a touchdown. Tampa Bay’s defense also came up with two key interceptions and held the Lions to a 41.2% conversion rate on third down.Even though they didn’t record any sacks, the Buccaneers did manage to hit the quarterback five more times than the Lions. Tampa Bay’s defense also limited Detroit to a 62.5% completion percentage and held them to just 5.8 yards per pass attempt.

• Spanning across their last three games, Tampa Bay have gone 2-1. In addition, their ATS record over this stretch is 2-1 while posting a 1-2 over-under mark.
• The Buccaneers have gone 6-4 over their last ten regular season games. In these contests, the team went just 5-5 against the spread, while going 3-7 on the over-under.

The Lean

Our pick vs. the spread is to take the Broncos to cover as road underdogs in this week three matchup between the Broncos and Buccaneers. Right now, the line is sitting at +6.5 in favor of the Broncos, and we have them winning 19-15.

For an over/under pick, we really like the under, with a projected combined score of 34 points and the O/U line at 39.5 points.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are off to another impressive start to the season, standing at 2-0, one of only four undefeated teams in the NFC heading into Week 3. After a gritty road win against the Detroit Lions last weekend, the Buccaneers are looking to extend their unbeaten streak to 3-0, a feat they haven’t achieved since 2005. On Sunday, they’ll host the Denver Broncos, a team struggling at 0-2 and in search of their first win.

Buccaneers’ Strong Start: Momentum and Challenges

The Buccaneers have earned their 2-0 start with a mix of opportunistic offense and timely defensive stops. Their most recent victory, a 20-16 win over the Lions, showcased their ability to make big plays when it matters most. Yet, despite their fast start, head coach Todd Bowles remains focused on the bigger picture.

“We’re not out to prove everybody wrong, we’re out to prove ourselves right,” Bowles said. “We’re hungry, we’re trying to get to the playoffs and win the Super Bowl.”
Bowles’ cautious optimism stems from past seasons, where similar strong starts didn’t translate into long-term success. Last year, Tampa Bay opened 2-0 but suffered a 25-11 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 3. This season, the Buccaneers are determined to break the pattern and continue building momentum.

A Vulnerable Yet Resilient Defense

While Tampa Bay’s defense ranks 28th in total yards allowed (381 yards per game), they’ve been able to minimize scoring damage, allowing only 18.0 points per game, tied for sixth best in the NFL. The defense has been particularly resilient in key moments, but it faces serious challenges in defending against the pass, ranking 29th with 242.5 yards allowed per game.

Cornerback Zyon McCollum acknowledged the importance of staying humble, especially after last season’s early success faded. “We went 2-0 last year, and you all saw what happened. So the leadership on this team has been keeping us together, staying humble and focused on the Broncos.”

Despite their defensive ranking, Tampa Bay’s secondary will need to tighten up against Denver, who will look to exploit their weaknesses, especially through the air.

Baker Mayfield’s Leadership Under Center

Quarterback Baker Mayfield has played a significant role in the Buccaneers’ fast start. His performance against Detroit was a key factor in the win, using an opportunistic approach to offense. While Mayfield’s stats have not been extraordinary, his leadership and decision-making have kept the Bucs competitive.

With several offensive and defensive injuries, including Vita Vea (knee) and Antoine Winfield Jr. (foot), Mayfield will need to continue leading the team with precision, particularly as Tampa Bay aims to overcome these early-season challenges.

Denver Broncos: A Team in Struggle

The Denver Broncos come into Week 3 winless at 0-2, with rookie quarterback Bo Nix enduring a rocky start. Nix has thrown four interceptions in his first two games, including two costly turnovers in a 13-6 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers last week. His struggles have been magnified by Denver’s offensive woes; the team ranks 29th in total offense, averaging just 263 yards per game.

While Nix has shown flashes of potential—like connecting on 49- and 26-yard passes during a promising drive against Pittsburgh—his end-zone interception stalled the team’s chances of a comeback.

“We’ve got a young quarterback who’s learning, and that’s going to come with some mistakes,” Denver head coach Sean Payton said. “But he’s shown enough for us to believe in him, and now it’s about turning those opportunities into points.”

Offensive Struggles and Key Playmakers

Denver’s offense has not only struggled in the passing game but also on the ground. The Broncos are one of 10 teams averaging fewer than 100 rushing yards per game, which has further strained Nix’s ability to keep the offense moving. However, wide receiver Josh Reynolds has been a standout, with 138 receiving yards across the first two games, including a 49-yard catch last week.

For Denver to have any chance of upsetting the Buccaneers on the road, Nix will need to limit turnovers and lean heavily on Reynolds and the short passing game to counter Tampa Bay’s defensive lapses.

Broncos’ Defense: The Silver Lining

Denver’s defense has been the team’s strength, allowing just 277.5 total yards per game, which ranks ninth in the league. In their Week 2 matchup against Pittsburgh, the Broncos gave up just 117 passing yards and 13 points. Unfortunately, their offense failed to capitalize, managing only two field goals in the fourth quarter.

However, Denver’s defense has been hit hard by injuries, with key players like right tackle Mike McGlinchey (knee), linebacker Baron Browning (foot), and defensive end John Franklin-Myers (concussion) either out or limited in practice. This weakened defense will face a stiff test against the Buccaneers’ offense.

Injuries Could Shape the Outcome

Both teams are dealing with significant injury issues. For the Buccaneers, defensive linemen William Gholston (knee) and Calijah Kancey (calf), along with standout safety Antoine Winfield Jr. (foot), are key question marks heading into Sunday. If these players are sidelined, it could open the door for Nix and the Broncos to exploit Tampa Bay’s shaky secondary.

On the Broncos’ side, the absence of Mike McGlinchey and defensive injuries could make it difficult for Denver to maintain their defensive edge, especially if Mayfield continues his efficient, turnover-free play.

Key Matchup: Buccaneers’ Pass Defense vs. Bo Nix

One of the most intriguing matchups will be Tampa Bay’s inconsistent pass defense against Denver’s rookie quarterback. The Buccaneers have struggled to defend the pass, and Nix, despite his errors, has the arm talent to exploit those weaknesses. Whether or not Nix can avoid turnovers will likely determine how competitive Denver can be in this game.

What to Expect: Will the Bucs Stay Unbeaten?

For Tampa Bay, Sunday’s game is a chance to not only extend their unbeaten streak but to solidify their standing as one of the top teams in the NFC. A 3-0 start would break the recent trend of early-season success followed by mid-season struggles. Baker Mayfield will need to continue managing the game effectively, while the defense will look to tighten up its secondary against a rookie quarterback prone to turnovers.

For the Broncos, this game could be a turning point in their season. They have a strong defense, but without offensive improvement, they will continue to struggle. If Nix can put together a complete performance and eliminate his mistakes, Denver has a shot at pulling off an upset, but the odds are stacked against them.

Conclusion: Can Tampa Bay Break the 2-0 Curse?

The Buccaneers are poised to go 3-0 for the first time since 2005, but standing in their way is a hungry Denver team eager to earn their first win. Tampa Bay’s defense will need to limit big plays from Bo Nix, while the offense, led by Mayfield, must capitalize on Denver’s injuries. If the Buccaneers can play disciplined football and avoid costly errors, they are well-positioned to continue their strong start to the season.

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