Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots Picks and Predictions December 22nd 2024

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots December 22nd 2024

The Patriots are +652 on the money line as they face the Bills at 4:25 ET on Sunday, December 22nd. Buffalo is heavily favored at -999 on the money line and -14 on the point spread. The over/under line is at 46.5 points. This week 16 AFC East matchup is being televised on CBS.

New England vs. Buffalo Key Information

Heading into week 16, the Patriots are on a four-game losing streak, including a 30-17 loss to the Cardinals in week 15. This dropped New England to 3-11, leaving them 4th in the AFC East. They rank 26th in our power rankings and have a 0.0% chance of making the playoffs.

Against the spread, the Patriots are 5-8-1, and they’ve been the underdog in all of their games so far. Their O/U record is 9-5, with the over hitting in four straight games.

Heading into week 16, the Patriots rank 26th in our offensive power rankings. They are 28th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 17, and 29th in yards per game with 292.4. New England ranks 19th in passing attempts per game but is last in passing yards, averaging 173.1 per game. On the ground, they are 18th in rushing attempts and 13th in rushing yards, with 119.3 per game. The Patriots are 27th in the league in 3rd-down conversion rate, converting 34.3% of their attempts, but they rank 9th in red zone conversion percentage.

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Drake Maye threw for 202 yards (19/23) and a touchdown in week 15 against the Cardinals, posting a passer rating of 99. He has thrown for over 200 yards in each of his last three games. Rhamondre Stevenson led the team with 69 rushing yards on 13 carries, while Kendrick Bourne had 44 receiving yards on 3 catches. The Patriots struggled on 3rd down, failing to convert any of their 6 attempts, but they scored 14 points in the 4th quarter.

In their 30-17 loss to the Cardinals, the Patriots’ defense allowed Arizona to convert on 66.7% of their third down chances. New England gave up 395 yards of total offense, including 163 yards on the ground, with the Patriots averaging 5.1 yards per attempt. Despite not allowing any passing touchdowns, the Patriots allowed Arizona to complete 78.1% of their passes for 232 yards.

New England’s defense struggled to generate pressure, as they failed to record a sack and lost both the QB hit and tackles for loss differentials in this game. The Patriots will look to improve in these areas and shore up their run defense in their next outing.

Heading into week 16, the Bills sit atop the AFC East with an 11-3 record, including a 3-0 mark in division play. Our projections give them a 100% chance of winning the division and making the playoffs. Buffalo ranks 2nd in our NFL power rankings, and they have a +9.6 scoring margin this season. Against the spread, the Bills are 9-5, including a 7-3 record as favorites.

In week 15, the Bills bounced back from their week 14 loss to the Rams with a 48-42 win over the Lions. Buffalo was a 2.5-point underdog in that game, but they came away with the win, improving their record to 11-3. The combined score of 90 points easily went over the 55.5-point line, marking the second straight game that the over has hit in a Bills game.

Josh Allen has been on a tear, posting passer ratings of 122 in week 15, 117 in week 14, and 141 in week 13. Against the Lions, he threw for 362 yards and 2 touchdowns without an interception. Buffalo’s offensive line has done a great job protecting him, as he hasn’t been sacked in his last three games.

James Cook rushed for 105 yards on 14 carries in week 15, following his 107-yard performance in week 13. Ty Johnson led the team in receiving against the Lions, with 5 catches for 114 yards.

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Buffalo’s defense gave up 473 yards through the air in their 48-42 win over the Lions, struggling to defend the pass despite coming out on top. The Bills allowed five passing touchdowns and 38 completions. Detroit’s quarterbacks completed 64.4% of their passes and converted on 46.2% of their third down attempts.

Even though the Bills allowed just 48 rushing yards on 15 attempts, their focus on stopping the run led to a high passing yardage total for the Lions. Buffalo did manage three sacks and had seven more quarterback hits than the Lions.

Our pick against the spread is to take Buffalo to cover as big 14-point favorites at home in this week 16 matchup vs. the Patriots. We have the Bills winning by a score of 30-13.

For the over/under, with the line sitting at 46.5 points, we like the under with a projected combined score of 43 points.

Bills Stay Focused as Patriots Seek to Rebound

The Buffalo Bills, riding high after clinching the AFC East and a thrilling 48-42 win over the Detroit Lions, are set to host the New England Patriots on Sunday in Orchard Park, N.Y. Despite their recent success, the Bills insist they won’t overlook a struggling Patriots squad as they aim to maintain momentum heading into the playoffs.

Bills Embrace “Champion’s Mindset”

Buffalo coach Sean McDermott emphasized the importance of discipline and focus, even with the division title already secured.

“A champion’s mindset has a certain degree of discipline that goes along with it,” McDermott said. “Every week, it’s a new challenge. We certainly have a ton of respect for this football team.”

The Bills’ offense, led by MVP candidate Josh Allen, has been firing on all cylinders. Allen has amassed 3,395 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, and only five interceptions while also contributing 11 rushing scores. Running back James Cook and wide receiver Khalil Shakir add balance to an attack that has combined for 90 points over the past two games.

However, the cold Buffalo weather could force a shift in strategy. Temperatures are expected to be in the teens, with a chance of snow, conditions that McDermott says the team is ready to embrace.

“We live here. This is what we embrace, playing in Buffalo, and playing well at home,” McDermott said.

Patriots Searching for Answers

The Patriots enter Sunday’s game amid a four-game losing streak and a season that has fallen well short of expectations. Rookie quarterback Drake Maye has shown flashes of potential, including a 202-yard performance in last week’s 30-17 loss to Arizona. However, consistency has been elusive for New England, which has dropped 11 of its last 13 games.

Maye remains optimistic about the team’s direction under head coach Jerod Mayo, despite speculation about Mayo’s job security.

“I think the results are coming,” Maye said. “Everybody wishes they were now, and I think we’re striving for that.”

New England’s offense will need a spark from running back Rhamondre Stevenson, who leads the team with 740 rushing yards and six touchdowns. The Patriots’ ground game could be crucial, particularly with adverse weather potentially impacting the passing game.

Injury Updates

The Bills have a handful of players limited in practice, including safeties Damar Hamlin and Taylor Rapp, linebacker Matt Milano, and wide receiver Curtis Samuel. Meanwhile, the Patriots are dealing with significant injuries, as safety Kyle Dugger, running back JaMycal Hasty, and wide receiver Javon Baker all missed Wednesday’s practice.

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Keys to the Game

1. Buffalo’s Ground Game: With frigid conditions expected, James Cook and the Bills’ offensive line will be critical to controlling the game.
2. Patriots’ Defense: Can New England’s defense, which has struggled to contain high-powered offenses, find a way to limit Josh Allen and company?
3. Turnovers: Both teams will need to prioritize ball security in what could be a sloppy, weather-impacted game.

Outlook

Buffalo boasts a perfect 6-0 home record and seems well-positioned to extend their winning streak to three games. For New England, a win would not only end their losing streak but also serve as a confidence booster as they evaluate their roster for the future. However, the Bills’ depth, offensive firepower, and home-field advantage make them the clear favorite in this AFC East showdown.