Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets Picks and Predictions December 29th 2024

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets December 29th 2024

The Bills are heavily favored at -498 on the money line as they host the Jets at 1:00 ET on Sunday, December 29th at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY. The Jets are +372 on the money line, and the point spread is at +9.5 for the Jets. The over/under line is at 46.5 points. This week 17 AFC East matchup is being televised on CBS.

New York vs. Buffalo Key Information

Heading into week 17, the Jets sit at 4-11 and rank 18th in our power rankings. They have a -3.5 scoring margin and are 5-10 against the spread. As favorites, they are 4-6 ATS, and as underdogs, they are 1-4. Their O/U record is 8-6-1, with their games averaging 42.4 points, the same as their average line.

New York’s playoff chances are at 0.0%, and they are 3rd in the AFC East with a 1-3 division record. They are 2-5 at home and 2-6 on the road. In week 15, they beat the Jaguars 32-25 but couldn’t build on that win, losing 19-9 to the Rams in week 16.

Heading into week 17, the Jets sit 16th in our offensive power rankings. They are 24th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 19.5 points per game, and 23rd in total yards per game with 307.9. New York ranks 17th in passing yards per game, with 219.2, on 35.9 attempts per game, which is the 8th most in the league. On the ground, they are 28th in rushing attempts and 31st in rushing yards, averaging 88.7 per game. The Jets are 12th in the NFL in 3rd-down conversion percentage and 16th in red zone conversion rate, scoring on 27.1% of their trips inside the 20.

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Aaron Rodgers threw for 256 yards and a touchdown in week 16, completing 28 of 42 passes without an interception. Davante Adams led the team with 7 catches for 68 yards and a touchdown, while Breece Hall rushed for 52 yards on 14 carries. The Jets scored all 9 of their points in the first half against the Rams, failing to score in the 2nd half.

In their 19-9 loss to the Rams, the Jets’ defense allowed 132 rushing yards on 31 attempts, with Los Angeles gaining 4.3 yards per attempt on the ground. Despite their struggles against the run, the Jets’ pass defense was more effective, limiting the Rams to just 110 yards through the air on 14 completions. However, one of those completions was a touchdown. The Jets allowed the Rams to complete 73.7% of their passes and convert on 50% of their third down attempts.

The Jets’ defense didn’t record any sacks in the game and allowed the Rams to move the ball effectively enough to come away with the win.

With a 12-3 record, the Bills have a 100% chance of winning the AFC East and making the playoffs. They are on a two-game winning streak, including a 24-21 win over the Patriots in week 16. Buffalo was favored by 14 points but couldn’t cover the spread, bringing their ATS record to 9-6. Their average scoring margin this season is +9.2.

Buffalo ranks 4th in our NFL power rankings and is 2nd in the AFC standings. They are 7-0 at home and 5-3 on the road. Their O/U record is 9-6, with their games averaging 53.3 points compared to an average line of 47.

Josh Allen has been dealing with a hand injury and is listed as questionable for week 17. He struggled in week 16 against the Patriots, posting a passer rating of 67 with 154 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Before that, he had two strong performances, throwing for 362 yards in week 15 and 342 yards in week 14, without an interception in either game.

James Cook rushed for 100 yards on 11 carries in week 16 and also led the team in receiving with 26 yards on 3 catches. He had a 105-yard rushing game in week 15. Ty Johnson had 114 receiving yards in week 15, and Khalil Shakir had 106 yards in week 14.

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In their 24-21 win over the Patriots, the Bills’ defense gave up 253 passing yards on 22 completions. New England finished with 379 total yards, including 126 rushing yards on 30 attempts. Buffalo defended the pass well, allowing just a 61.1% completion rate and coming up with one interception.

On third downs, the Patriots converted 58.3% of their attempts, and Buffalo’s defense recorded two sacks and two quarterback hits.

With the point spread sitting at 9.5 points in favor of the Jets, our pick vs. the spread is to take the Jets to cover as road underdogs. Even though the Jets are the favorite, we have the Bills winning this one by a score of 24-16.

As for the over/under, with the line at 46.5 points, we are leaning towards taking the under, with our prediction being that these teams combine for just 40 points.

Bills Not Satisfied With Recent Play, Aim to Be Better vs. Jets

The Buffalo Bills may have secured their playoff spot weeks ago, but they’re not resting on their laurels. With the postseason in sight, the Bills are focused on cleaning up their game as they prepare to host the New York Jets on Sunday afternoon in Orchard Park, N.Y.

Defensive Struggles Against New England

Despite their 12-3 record, Buffalo’s recent performances have exposed areas for improvement. Last week’s narrow 24-21 victory over the 3-12 New England Patriots highlighted some defensive lapses. The Patriots jumped out to a 14-0 lead, converting 7 of 12 third-down attempts, putting pressure on Buffalo’s defense to respond.

Defensive coordinator Bobby Babich is intent on making sure such lapses don’t happen again, especially against a Jets team eager to play spoiler.

“Certainly we’re not where we need to be or where we want to be,” Babich said. “It’s a combination of us putting our players, and me specifically, in position to be successful and understand how they’re going to get attacked.”

Getting Amari Cooper Involved

On offense, the Bills are working to better integrate wide receiver Amari Cooper, who was acquired midseason from the Cleveland Browns. Cooper has been underutilized, with just one catch for 10 yards against the Patriots and only 17 receptions for 241 yards and a touchdown in seven games with Buffalo.

Offensive coordinator Joe Brady emphasized the importance of Cooper to the team’s attack.

“We’re better when Amari Cooper is out on the football field,” Brady said. “I got to do a better job of getting the ball in his hands, because he helps us.”

Jets Looking to End on a High Note

While the Bills are fine-tuning for a playoff run, the Jets are focused on salvaging pride from a disappointing season. At one point, New York harbored hopes of contending for the AFC East, but Buffalo’s dominance and the Jets’ 1-5 record over their last six games dashed those dreams.

Still, linebacker Jamien Sherwood is determined to finish strong.

“There are only two weeks (remaining). There is no reason for anybody to be checked out,” Sherwood said. “It shows what type of person you are, what type of player you are.”

Aaron Rodgers’ Future in Question

The Jets are also dealing with uncertainty surrounding quarterback Aaron Rodgers. The veteran QB recently joked about team owner Woody Johnson’s teenage sons, Brick and Jack, potentially influencing his departure after this season. Rodgers, dealing with a knee injury, remains noncommittal about his future with the team.

“You should ask Woody,” Rodgers said when asked if he thought Johnson wanted him back.

Rodgers was listed as a full participant in Wednesday’s estimated injury report despite his knee issue.

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Injury Concerns for Both Teams

Both squads are managing injuries late in the season. The Jets’ injury report includes wide receiver Davante Adams (hip), offensive linemen Morgan Moses (knee) and Alijah Vera-Tucker (ankle), and cornerbacks Michael Carter II (back) and Sauce Gardner (hamstring).

For Buffalo, safety Damar Hamlin (rib) and linebacker Matt Milano (biceps, groin) were among five players listed as limited.

High Stakes for Buffalo

Buffalo aims to solidify its playoff momentum and address vulnerabilities before the stakes get even higher in the postseason. For the Jets, it’s a chance to show resilience and end a disappointing campaign with a statement performance.

Whether it’s fine-tuning a playoff-bound machine or playing for pride, both teams have plenty to prove on Sunday.