Buffalo Bills vs San Francisco 49ers Picks and Predictions December 1st 2024

Buffalo Bills vs San Francisco 49ers December 1st 2024

The 49ers and Bills will face off on Sunday, December 1st at 8:20 ET on NBC. The Bills are the heavy favorite with a money line of -319, and they are favored by -7 in this non-conference matchup. The over/under line is set at 45.5 points. The 49ers need to add their record to this one.

San Francisco vs. Buffalo Key Information

• Teams: 49ers at Bills
• Where: Highmark Stadium Orchard Park
• Date: Sunday, December 1st
• Betting Odds BUF -319 | SF +252 O/U 45.5

The 49ers Can Win If…

Heading into week 13, the 49ers are looking to snap a two-game losing streak, which includes a 38-10 loss to the Packers in week 12. San Francisco was a 6.5-point underdog in that game but couldn’t cover the spread, leaving them at 4-7 against the spread this season. They have an average scoring margin of 0 points per game and rank 7th in our NFL power rankings.

With a 5-6 record, the 49ers currently have a 16.4% chance of making the playoffs and a 12.9% chance of winning the NFC West. They are 1-3 in division games and 3-5 in conference play, putting them 4th in the NFC West. In our O/U betting stats, the over has hit in 6 of their 11 games this season.

Heading into week 13, the 49ers are 12th in our offensive power rankings. They rank 13th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 23.6, and 4th in passing yards per game with 246.2, despite being 20th in passing attempts. San Francisco is 7th in rushing yards per game, averaging 138.4, on 28.5 attempts per game. They are 6th in the league in 3rd-down conversion percentage, but their red zone conversion rate of 16.7% ranks 21st.

In week 12, the 49ers struggled offensively, scoring just 10 points in a loss to the Packers. Brandon Allen, filling in for Brock Purdy, threw for 197 yards, completing 17 of 29 passes with 1 touchdown and 1 interception. Christian McCaffrey had 31 rushing yards on 11 carries, and George Kittle led the team with 6 catches for 82 yards.

In their 38-10 loss to the Packers, the 49ers’ defense allowed just 13 completions for 156 yards in the passing game. However, they struggled to stop the run, giving up 169 yards on 42 attempts. The 49ers’ offense managed only 10 points in this one, and the defense was on the field for 32:16 minutes of the game. The 49ers’ defense did force the Packers into 3rd down 15 times, but Green Bay converted on 7 of those opportunities.

The 49ers’ defense also came up with two sacks in the game and had two tackles for loss compared to the Packers. Despite their struggles against the run, the 49ers did a good job limiting the Packers in the passing game, holding them to just 6.8 yards per attempt.

• Across San Francisco’s last three regular season games, their record sits at 1-2. Their record against the spread in this stretch is 0-3 to go along with an over-under mark of 1-2.
• San Francisco has put together a record of 4-6 in their last ten games (regular season). In these matchups, they ended with an ATS record of 3-7 and an over-under mark of 5-5.

The Bills Can Win If…

Buffalo’s 9-2 record has them atop the AFC East, and our projections give them a 100% chance of winning the division and making the playoffs. The Bills are currently on a six-game winning streak, including a 30-21 victory over the Chiefs in week 11. They also picked up wins over the Colts, Dolphins, Seahawks, Titans, and Jets during this stretch.

Heading into week 13, Buffalo ranks 3rd in our NFL power rankings. They have an average scoring margin of +9.6 points per game and are 7-4 against the spread. The over has hit in three straight Bills games, including their matchup with the Chiefs, which saw 51 points scored on a 47-point line.

Josh Allen threw for 262 yards (27/40) and a touchdown in week 11 against the Chiefs, posting a passer rating of 83. He also led the team in rushing with 55 yards on 12 carries. Khalil Shakir was the top receiver, with 8 catches for 70 yards. The Bills scored 14 points in the 4th quarter and converted 9 of 15 3rd downs, while going 3/4 in the red zone.

Buffalo ranks 3rd in the NFL in points per game, averaging 29.1, and they are 13th in passing yards per game (226.1) and rushing yards per game (119.2). They are 9th in 3rd down conversions and 2nd in red zone attempts, but their red zone conversion rate of 6.4% ranks 28th in the league.

Buffalo’s defense gave up three passing touchdowns in their 30-21 win over the Chiefs, but they also came away with two interceptions. The Bills allowed just 78 rushing yards on 17 attempts and held Kansas City to 181 passing yards. The Chiefs completed 69.7% of their passes and converted on 50% of their third down attempts.

Despite giving up three passing scores, Buffalo’s defense was able to make key plays and help secure the victory. The Bills also recorded two sacks and had a positive quarterback hit differential.

• Over their last three games, the Bills have gone 3-0 straight up. The team has also been excellent vs the spread, going 2-1. Their over-under record in these games was 3-0.
• The Bills have gone 9-1 over their last ten regular season games. Across these games, their ATS record was just 6-4, while posting an over-under record of 8-2.

The Lean

Our pick against the spread is to take the 49ers to cover as road underdogs in this week 13 matchup vs. the Bills. Right now, the 49ers are +7 point road underdogs, and we have them not only covering but winning by a score of 20-18.

For an over/under pick, we like going with the under, with a projected combined score of 38 points and the O/U line sitting at 45.5 points.

Weekly Football Picks

Banged-up 49ers Brace for a Challenge Against the Soaring Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills are one win away from clinching the AFC East and continuing their dominance in the division. On Sunday night, they face the injury-plagued San Francisco 49ers in what could be a decisive matchup at Orchard Park, New York.

Buffalo (9-2) is riding a six-game winning streak and looks poised for another deep playoff run, while San Francisco (5-6) is reeling from back-to-back losses, compounded by significant injuries to key players.

Buffalo Bills: High Hopes and High Stakes

After a bye week, the Bills return well-rested following a commanding 30-21 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs. Quarterback Josh Allen has been the cornerstone of their success this season, with 18 touchdown passes against only five interceptions, showcasing a sharp improvement from his struggles last year.

Allen remains focused despite the team’s success. “To be at the bye week … at 9-2 and obviously feeling confident about what we got going on here and the guys that we have in this locker room, it’s a great feeling,” Allen said.

The Bills’ offense has been red-hot, scoring 30 or more points in five consecutive games. Taron Johnson, a key cornerback, underscores the importance of staying sharp. “We just got to make sure that we keep that same fire and not get complacent and just continue to play our best ball moving forward,” Johnson said.

Buffalo has historical dominance against San Francisco, averaging 39.5 points in their last two matchups in 2016 and 2020.

San Francisco 49ers: A Team in Turmoil

The 49ers enter this critical game with a 5-6 record, their playoff hopes fading after consecutive losses. Last week, San Francisco was routed 38-10 by the Green Bay Packers, playing without quarterback Brock Purdy, who is nursing a shoulder injury.

Purdy’s status remains uncertain, with Brandon Allen preparing to step in again if necessary. Allen struggled against Green Bay, completing 17 of 29 passes for 199 yards with one touchdown, one interception, and one lost fumble. His record as a starter (2-8) doesn’t inspire much confidence.

Running back Christian McCaffrey has also struggled since returning from an Achilles injury. In three games, he has managed just 149 rushing yards at a 3.5-yard average. Despite the challenges, McCaffrey remains optimistic. “I’m happy I’m out here playing football and I just know with time it will come,” he said.

Tight end George Kittle continues to shine, recently moving into third place on San Francisco’s all-time receptions list with 509 catches. However, injuries to defensive end Nick Bosa (hip/oblique) and left tackle Trent Williams (ankle) leave the team vulnerable on both offense and defense.

Injury Concerns Dominate the Narrative

The 49ers’ roster reads like a hospital report. Star linebacker Fred Warner revealed he’s been playing through a fractured ankle, while linebacker Dre Greenlaw returned to limited practice after missing time with an Achilles injury.

On Buffalo’s side, tight end Dalton Kincaid (knee) sat out practice, but linebacker Matt Milano (biceps) was a full participant and could make his return.

Keys to the Game

1. Buffalo’s Offensive Firepower
   • Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense will aim to exploit the 49ers’ injury-weakened defense. Scoring early and often could seal the deal.
2. San Francisco’s Resilience
   • The 49ers need standout performances from healthy stars like Kittle and McCaffrey. Their defense must also step up despite missing key players.
3. Turnover Battle
   • Buffalo has been careful with the ball this season, while San Francisco must limit mistakes, especially with an inexperienced quarterback under center.

Final Thoughts

Buffalo enters this game as heavy favorites, with their high-powered offense firing on all cylinders and a defense capable of capitalizing on San Francisco’s vulnerabilities. The 49ers, battered but unbowed, will need a near-perfect performance to stay in the playoff hunt.

Can the Bills clinch their fifth straight AFC East crown, or will the 49ers find a way to defy the odds? Sunday night promises an exciting clash between two teams fighting for very different outcomes.