Arizona Cardinals vs Washington Commanders Picks and Predictions September 29th 2024

Kliff Kingsbury’s proteges face off as the Commanders head to Arizona

Washington is +158 on the money line as they head into their week four matchup with the Cardinals. The game, set for 4:05 ET on Sunday, is being televised by FOX. The Cardinals are the favorite on the point spread, sitting at -3.5. The over/under line is at 50.5 points.

Washington vs. Arizona Key Information

• Teams: Commanders at Cardinals
• Where: State Farm Stadium Glendale
• Date: Sunday, September 29th
• Betting Odds ARI -189 | WAS +158 O/U 50.5

The Commanders Can Win If…

Washington picked up a 38-33 win over the Bengals, improving their record to 2-1. The Commanders were +7 point underdogs on the road in this one. The combined 71 points easily surpassed the O/U line of 45.5 points.

Washington and Cincinnati were tied at 7 after the 1st quarter, but the Commanders took the lead for good with two 2nd quarter touchdowns. They added another touchdown in the 3rd quarter and held off a late Bengals push in the 4th quarter. Jayden Daniels’ touchdown run with just over two minutes left in the 2nd quarter was crucial in giving Washington a 21-13 lead going into halftime.

Quarterback Jayden Daniels led the Washington Commanders to a 38-33 win over the Bengals, completing 21 of 23 passes for 254 yards and two touchdowns. He also rushed for 39 yards and scored one touchdown. Washington’s offense picked up 22 first downs and converted 55.6% of their third down chances.

Terry McLaurin caught four passes for 100 yards, including a 55-yard touchdown reception. The Commanders rushed for 108 yards as a team, and Daniels was their leading rusher. He was sacked twice in the game.

In their 38-33 win over the Bengals, Washington’s defense gave up 312 yards through the air, with Cincinnati completing three passing touchdowns. They allowed 124 rushing yards on just 20 attempts. Despite giving up 436 total yards, they made key plays on third down, allowing just a 33% conversion rate.Washington’s defense managed two sacks and had more tackles for loss than the Bengals. The Commanders also held Cincinnati to a 0% red zone efficiency, as they were unable to score any points inside the 20-yard line.

• Over their last three games, the Commanders have gone 2-1 straight up. In addition, their ATS record over this stretch is 2-1 while posting a 2-1 over-under mark.
• Washington has put together a record of 2-8 in their last ten games (regular season). In these matchups, they ended with an ATS record of 3-7 and an over-under mark of 7-3.

The Cardinals Can Win If…

Despite tying the game 7-7 in the first quarter with a Kyler Murray touchdown pass to Marvin Harrison Jr., the Cardinals fell behind and lost 20-13 to the Lions at home. Arizona’s record now stands at 1-2. The Cardinals were 3-point favorites heading into the game, but the 7-point loss resulted in a non-cover. The combined 33 points was well below the over/under line of 51.5 points.

The Lions scored two unanswered touchdowns before Arizona added a 42-yard field goal just before halftime. Arizona didn’t score in the 3rd quarter but managed another touchdown pass from Murray to Michael Wilson in the 4th quarter. The Cardinals were unable to complete the comeback, however.

Despite the 20-13 loss to the Lions, Kyler Murray and the Cardinals’ passing game put up 200 yards. Murray completed 21 of 34 passes for 207 yards, with one touchdown and one interception. Arizona struggled on third down, converting only 11.1% of their chances, and Murray was sacked once.

Arizona’s ground game managed just 77 yards on 18 attempts. Murray was also the team’s leading rusher, gaining 45 yards on five carries, including a 21-yard run. Marvin Harrison Jr. led the team with 64 receiving yards and one touchdown.

Arizona’s defense gave up 187 rushing yards to the Lions in their most recent game, which was a 20-13 loss to Detroit. The Cardinals’ defense was tough to pass against, as the Lions didn’t complete a single pass in the game. However, they did manage to score two passing touchdowns, with Arizona giving up 186 yards through the air.

For the game, the Cardinals forced one interception, and they allowed the Lions to convert on 50% of their third down attempts. Arizona’s defense also had two sacks and won the tackles for loss battle.

• Across Arizona’s last three regular season games, their record sits at 1-2. They have held up well vs the spread in these matchups, going 2-1 as well as an over-under record of 1-2.
• Across Arizona’s last ten regular season games, their record sits at 3-7. This includes going 6-4 vs. the spread along with an over-under mark of 8-2.

The Lean

Our pick vs. the spread is to take the Washington Commanders to cover as road underdogs in this week four matchup against the Cardinals. Right now, the point spread lines have the Commanders at +3.5, and we have them winning 30-22 over the Cardinals.

For this one, we also like the over as a good bet. The current O/U line is 50.5 points, and our projections have these teams combining for 52 points.

Latest NFL Expert Picks

As the Arizona Cardinals prepare to host the Washington Commanders this Sunday, all eyes will be on two quarterbacks who have one key thing in common: they’ve both been mentored by Kliff Kingsbury. The former Arizona head coach, now the offensive coordinator for Washington, will be at the center of this intriguing matchup as Kyler Murray and Jayden Daniels, both Heisman Trophy-winning quarterbacks developed under his guidance, face off in what promises to be a compelling showdown.

Kingsbury’s Coaching Legacy: Developing Elite Quarterbacks

Kliff Kingsbury’s expertise in developing quarterbacks has become his signature throughout his coaching career. From his early years working with standout QBs in college to his tenure with the Cardinals, Kingsbury has shaped some of the NFL’s most dynamic passers. His journey with Kyler Murray began in 2019 when he helped transform Murray from an exciting rookie into one of the league’s rising stars. Now, in his new role with Washington, Kingsbury is working with another young quarterback, Jayden Daniels, who was the No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.

Daniels, like Murray before him, has thrived under Kingsbury’s offensive system. Through just three games, Daniels has already made his mark in the NFL, earning widespread praise for his poise and efficiency. Dan Quinn, Washington’s head coach, has been vocal about Daniels’ maturity, noting that the bigger the challenge, the better Daniels seems to perform.

Jayden Daniels’ Breakout Season

Jayden Daniels has quickly established himself as one of the most promising young quarterbacks in the NFL. His most recent performance—a 38-33 win over the Cincinnati Bengals—was nothing short of spectacular. Daniels completed 21 of 23 passes for 254 yards and two touchdowns, setting a new record for the highest completion rate ever for a rookie quarterback in a single game at 91.3%.

What makes Daniels even more remarkable is his mistake-free football. Through three games, he has yet to throw an interception or lose a fumble. In fact, he’s led the Commanders on 17 consecutive scoring drives that either ended in points or a kneeldown to close out the game. His accuracy, composure, and decision-making are making Washington a serious contender in the NFC.

Washington’s offensive stars have also praised Daniels’ leadership. Veteran defensive tackle Jonathan Allen called him “the answer” for the Commanders, signaling the high level of confidence the team has in their rookie quarterback. Daniels’ continued development will be crucial as the Commanders head into this important matchup against Arizona.

Washington’s Challenges: Injuries and the Roller Coaster

Despite their early success, the Commanders face significant challenges heading into Sunday’s game. Several key players will be sidelined due to injury, including star running back Austin Ekeler, who suffered a concussion in Monday night’s win over Cincinnati. Defensive end Clelin Ferrell will also miss the game due to a knee injury, weakening Washington’s pass rush.

Head coach Dan Quinn is doing everything he can to keep his team focused amidst the highs and lows of the NFL season. In an effort to maintain continuity, he made the decision for the team to fly directly to Arizona from Cincinnati, wanting to limit outside distractions. Quinn emphasized the importance of staying grounded, comparing the emotional swings of the season to a “roller coaster,” which can be dangerous if not controlled.

This strategic move reflects Quinn’s intent to keep the Commanders focused as they prepare to face a dangerous Arizona team.

Kyler Murray’s Connection with Marvin Harrison Jr.

Meanwhile, the Arizona Cardinals are looking to bounce back after a tough 20-13 loss to the Detroit Lions. While the Cardinals’ offense struggled for much of that game, Kyler Murray continues to demonstrate his chemistry with rookie wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr.—the standout from Ohio State. Murray has thrown five touchdown passes so far this season, three of which have gone to Harrison.

Harrison’s ability to stretch the field and make contested catches has given Murray a reliable target, but Arizona’s offense has struggled with consistency. After scoring a touchdown on their opening drive last Sunday, the Cardinals were held to just two field goals over the next ten possessions.

This inconsistency will be a key concern as they prepare to face a Washington defense that, despite giving up a high number of passing touchdowns (nine, most in the NFL), has still managed to be opportunistic and disruptive.

Key Matchups to Watch

1. Jayden Daniels vs. Arizona’s Defense: Daniels’ efficiency and decision-making will be tested against a banged-up Arizona defense. With the Cardinals missing key defensive lineman Justin Jones, Daniels could have more time in the pocket to find his targets and extend his impressive streak of turnover-free football.
2. Kyler Murray vs. Washington’s Pass Defense: Washington’s defense ranks last in passer rating allowed (127.6), making them vulnerable to Arizona’s aerial attack. Murray and Harrison will look to exploit this, particularly with Washington dealing with injuries to some key defensive players.
3. Washington’s Ground Game Without Ekeler: With Austin Ekeler out, the Commanders will need to rely on their backup running backs to establish the run and keep the Cardinals’ defense honest. This could shift more responsibility onto Daniels, putting even more pressure on the rookie to carry the offense.

Injuries to Watch

Both teams are dealing with significant injuries that could impact the outcome of the game.

• For Washington, in addition to Ekeler’s concussion, offensive guard Sam Cosmi (Achilles) and defensive end Clelin Ferrell (knee) are also out, weakening both the offensive line and the defense.
• Arizona will be without Justin Jones, who is out for the season with a triceps injury, leaving a major hole in their defensive front. Several other key players, including Budda Baker, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Trey McBride, are either injured or limited in practice.

These injuries could play a pivotal role in how each team approaches the game, particularly with Washington missing critical components on both sides of the ball.

Final Thoughts: The Kingsbury Effect

This Sunday’s matchup isn’t just a battle between two NFL teams; it’s a showcase of Kliff Kingsbury’s coaching influence. The development of both Kyler Murray and Jayden Daniels under Kingsbury’s watch highlights his ability to groom elite quarterbacks who thrive in high-pressure situations. As both protégés take the field, it’s clear that Kingsbury’s offensive philosophy has left a lasting mark on their careers.

The game itself promises to be a test of Daniels’ meteoric rise and Murray’s experience. With both teams dealing with injuries and inconsistencies, the outcome may well hinge on which quarterback can capitalize on the other’s weaknesses.

No matter the result, Sunday’s game will serve as a defining moment for Kingsbury’s legacy—and the future of both quarterbacks he’s mentored.