Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos Picks and Predictions November 10th 2024

Chiefs vs Broncos November 10th 2024

The Broncos and Chiefs will kick off at 1:00 ET on Sunday, November 10th at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. The Chiefs are the heavy favorite with a money line of -431, and the point spread favors them at -8.5. On the Broncos’ side, they are +329 on the money line. The over/under line is set at 41.5 points for this AFC West matchup, which you can watch on CBS.

Denver vs. Kansas City Key Information

• Teams: Broncos at Chiefs
• Where: Arrowhead Stadium Kansas City
• Date: Sunday, November 10th
• Betting Odds KC -431 | DEN +329 O/U 41.5

The Broncos Can Win If…

After winning three straight games, the Broncos came crashing back to earth in week 9, suffering a 41-10 loss to the Ravens. Denver entered the game as 9-point underdogs but couldn’t keep it close, dropping their record to 5-4. They are now 3rd in the AFC West and 7th in the conference. Our projections give them a 35.5% chance of making the playoffs and a 0.7% chance of winning the division.

Heading into week 10, the Broncos rank 27th in our NFL power rankings. They have a +2.4 scoring margin and are 6-3 against the spread. They are 3-0 ATS as favorites and 3-3 as underdogs. Their O/U record is 6-3, with the over hitting in five straight games.

Heading into week 10, the Broncos rank 29th in our offensive power rankings. They are 22nd in the NFL in points per game (20.3) and 24th in yards per game (308.6). Denver is 27th in passing yards per game (187.1) despite being 12th in pass attempts. On the ground, they are 15th in both rushing attempts and yards per game, averaging 121.4 yards.

In week 9, Denver struggled against the Ravens, scoring just 10 points and failing to score in the 2nd half. Bo Nix threw for 223 yards with one interception. Courtland Sutton had 7 catches for 122 yards, and Javonte Williams rushed for 42 yards on 12 carries.

In their 41-10 loss to the Ravens, the Broncos’ defense allowed 84.2% of passes to be completed for 269 yards. Baltimore’s offense had a big day, racking up 396 yards and scoring three passing touchdowns. Denver struggled to generate pressure, coming away with just one sack and losing the QB hit and tackles for loss differentials.

The Broncos did defend the run better, holding the Ravens to 3.7 yards per attempt on 34 rushes. However, Baltimore had no trouble moving the ball through the air, as Denver gave up big plays and struggled to get off the field, allowing the Ravens to convert 37.5% of their third downs.

• Spanning across their last three games, Denver have gone 2-1. Their strong play has also resulted in an ATS mark of 2-1 (last 3). They had an over/under mark of 3-0 in those same games.
• Over their last ten regular season games, the Broncos have gone 5-5 straight up. This includes going 6-4 vs. the spread along with an over-under mark of 7-3.

The Chiefs Can Win If…

The Chiefs head into week 10 with an 8-0 record, giving them a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs and a 95.6% chance of winning the AFC West. Our power rankings have them 3rd in the NFL. Kansas City is 4-0 at home and on the road, including a 30-24 win over the Buccaneers in week 9. They couldn’t cover the 8.5-point spread, but the 54 points scored in the game went over the 45.5-point line.

The over has hit in each of the Chiefs’ last two games, and their O/U record is 4-4 this season. Their games have averaged 43.8 points, compared to an average line of 45.1. Against the spread, Kansas City is 4-3-1, and they have failed to cover in two straight games.

Patrick Mahomes is coming off a strong week 9 performance, throwing for 291 yards and 3 touchdowns with no interceptions against the Buccaneers. He completed 34 of 44 passes, finishing with a passer rating of 116. Mahomes has improved his passer rating in each of the last three weeks, going from 44 in week 7 to 96 in week 8 before his week 9 performance. Travis Kelce led the team with 14 receptions for 100 yards, while Kareem Hunt rushed for 106 yards on 27 carries.

Heading into week 10, the Chiefs rank 10th in the NFL in passing yards per game, averaging 230.1 yards. They also rank 10th in passing attempts per game, with 33.6. On the ground, Kansas City is 5th in rushing attempts per game and 14th in rushing yards, averaging 122.4 per game. The Chiefs have been strong on 3rd down, leading the league with a 53.2% conversion rate.

In their 30-24 overtime win over the Buccaneers, the Chiefs’ defense gave up 189 passing yards on 23 completions. They allowed two passing touchdowns and a 74.2% completion percentage to Tampa Bay. The Chiefs’ run defense held the Buccaneers to 95 yards on 19 attempts, but they did give up 284 total yards.

Despite allowing 189 yards through the air, the Chiefs’ defense struggled to get off the field on third down, as the Buccaneers converted 45.5% of their third down attempts. Additionally, Kansas City had a tough time generating pressure, as they had just two sacks and lost both the QB hit and tackles for loss differentials.

• Spanning across their last three games, Kansas City have gone 3-0. Against the spread, they have gone 1-2 and logged an over-under record of 2-1 in these games.
• Over their last ten regular season games, the Chiefs have gone 7-3 straight up. This includes going 5-5 vs. the spread along with an over-under mark of 3-6-1.

The Lean

Our pick vs. the spread is to take the Chiefs to cover as 8.5-point home favorites in this week 10 matchup between the Chiefs and Broncos. We have the Chiefs winning by a score of 27-17, and with the point spread sitting at 8.5 in favor of the Broncos, we like the Chiefs to cover.

For an over/under pick, with the line sitting at just 41.5 points, we are leaning towards taking the over, with our projections having these teams finishing with 44 combined points.

Picks from The Best NFL Expert Handicappers

The Kansas City Chiefs are looking to extend their undefeated streak as they face the Denver Broncos this Sunday, marking their first matchup with Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix. Riding an 8-0 start, the Chiefs are hoping to keep their perfect season alive while Nix aims to make a statement in his NFL debut against the reigning Super Bowl champions. Here’s a breakdown of what’s at stake for both teams in this high-stakes AFC West showdown.

Chiefs’ Momentum and Mahomes’ Injury Concerns

Quarterback Patrick Mahomes led the Chiefs to an overtime win against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this past Monday, clinching a 30-24 victory with a clutch performance despite nursing a sore left ankle. Mahomes sustained the injury a week prior and aggravated it during the game against Tampa Bay, yet he remains optimistic about his mobility for Sunday.

“When you have a little bit of a roll, it’s a bit sore,” Mahomes said, discussing his ankle. “But I’m able to move around and am looking forward to pushing it as the week goes on.”

With Mahomes’ ankle as a potential factor, Kansas City will need all hands on deck to maintain their league-best record. Kareem Hunt stepped up against Tampa Bay, scoring the game-winning 2-yard touchdown in overtime and tallying 106 rushing yards. DeAndre Hopkins and Travis Kelce also contributed significantly, with Hopkins catching eight passes for 86 yards and two touchdowns, while Kelce hauled in 14 passes for a season-high 100 yards.

Field Conditions and the Chiefs’ Strategy

With possible rain expected this weekend, field conditions at Arrowhead Stadium could become a challenge, especially with Mahomes’ ankle already under strain. The turf will also have been in use the previous day, with Kansas and Iowa State set to play at the venue on Saturday, further testing the field’s durability.

This adds another layer of complexity as the Chiefs consider how to handle a rookie quarterback. Kansas City’s defense has been highly effective against first-year passers, boasting an 11-1 record versus rookies since 2019. The Chiefs will be strategizing to keep Nix on his toes, hoping to capitalize on their strengths in defending against new quarterbacks.

Bo Nix: The Rookie Facing a Legendary Rivalry

The Broncos are coming off a 41-10 road loss, and rookie quarterback Bo Nix is navigating his first season in a highly competitive division. Facing the Chiefs at Arrowhead presents a major challenge for Nix, who must overcome the Chiefs’ seasoned defense and hostile crowd. While his passing numbers were modest against Baltimore last week—223 yards with one interception—Nix did manage a touchdown on a trick play, showing his versatility and readiness to improvise.

“These are the games you grow up watching and dream about playing,” Nix commented. “If you’re not ready for these games, you probably don’t belong in the league.”

The pressure is on for Nix, but his coach, Sean Payton, has expressed confidence in the rookie’s development. Payton praised Nix’s poise and growth, indicating that each week presents a new learning opportunity. Sunday’s matchup against Mahomes and the Chiefs’ defensive front will be a telling test of Nix’s adaptability and potential in the NFL.

Chiefs vs. Broncos: A Decade-Long Rivalry

The Chiefs hold a 16-1 record over the Broncos since 2015, including their recent 24-9 defeat at Denver in October. While this rivalry has been one-sided, the Broncos’ recent win has sparked hope for a stronger showing. As Kansas City seeks to maintain their dominant position, Denver is eager to break their streak and disrupt the Chiefs’ momentum.

The Chiefs’ 14-game win streak, including postseason victories, is on the line, and the pressure is high to protect it. A win would further cement Kansas City’s hold on the AFC West, while a Broncos victory could mark a turning point for Denver in the division.

Key Injury Updates

Both teams are monitoring player injuries closely:

• Kansas City Chiefs: Wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster (hamstring) and defensive tackle Tershawn Wharton (knee) sat out Wednesday’s practice, though Mahomes participated fully, signaling his determination to play.
• Denver Broncos: The Broncos reported no absences from practice, suggesting they’ll field a full-strength lineup, which could provide them a small advantage on game day.

What to Expect on Game Day

1. Mahomes’ Mobility: Mahomes’ ability to move and extend plays will be a focus. His sore ankle could limit his usual agility, but the Chiefs will be relying on him to lead their high-powered offense.
2. Broncos Defense Against Chiefs Receivers: Denver’s secondary will face an uphill battle containing Kelce and Hopkins, two critical weapons in Kansas City’s passing game.
3. Rookie Performance Under Pressure: Bo Nix has the potential to surprise, especially if he leverages Payton’s play-calling to his advantage. His challenge will be balancing poise and confidence against a defense skilled at disrupting first-year quarterbacks.

Final Thoughts

The Chiefs-Broncos matchup on Sunday promises to be a clash of skill, resilience, and strategy. For Kansas City, the game represents an opportunity to extend their unbeaten run and hold their lead in the AFC West. For Denver and Bo Nix, it’s a chance to disrupt that streak and make a statement against one of the NFL’s elite teams.

Game Prediction: The Chiefs enter the game as favorites, but Denver’s recent win and full roster could make this matchup closer than expected. Expect the Chiefs to take an aggressive stance early to control the pace and limit Nix’s chances for a comeback.