Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Picks and Predictions November 4th 2024

Chiefs vs Buccaneers November 4th 2024

The Buccaneers and Chiefs are set to face off on Monday, November 4th at 8:15 ET on ESPN. The Chiefs are heavily favored with a money line of -438, and the point spread favors them by -8.5 points. This non-conference matchup is being played at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, and the over/under line is set at 45.5 points.

Tampa Bay vs. Kansas City Key Information

• Teams: Buccaneers at Chiefs
• Where: Arrowhead Stadium Kansas City
• Date: Monday, November 4th
• Betting Odds KC -438 | TB +339 O/U 45.5

The Buccaneers Can Win If…

After a week 6 win over the Saints, the Buccaneers have dropped two straight, including a 31-26 home loss to the Falcons in week 8. Tampa Bay entered the game as 1.5-point underdogs and couldn’t cover, bringing their ATS record to 4-4. They are also 4-4 overall, putting them 2nd in the NFC South. Our power rankings have the Bucs 12th heading into week 9.

We give Tampa Bay a 48% chance of making the playoffs and a 28.3% chance of winning the division. Their O/U record stands at 6-2, with the over hitting in five straight games. Bucs games have averaged 56 points this season, while the O/U line has averaged 45.2.

Heading into week 9, the Buccaneers are 4th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 29.4, and they also rank 4th in yards per game with 389.5. They’ve been strong on 3rd down, leading the league with a 52.5% conversion rate, and they rank 4th in red zone attempts. However, they are 27th in red zone conversion percentage, at just 9.7%. In our offensive power rankings, Tampa Bay sits 6th.

In week 8, Baker Mayfield threw for 330 yards and 3 touchdowns, completing 37 of 50 passes without an interception. Cade Otton led the team with 9 catches for 81 yards and 2 touchdowns, while Bucky Irving had 44 rushing yards on 9 carries. Tampa Bay scored 9 points in the 4th quarter and converted all 3 of their red zone opportunities.

In their 31-26 loss to the Falcons, the Buccaneers’ defense struggled to defend the big play in the passing game, as Atlanta averaged 9.1 yards per attempt and completed 79.3% of their passes. The Bucs allowed four passing touchdowns and gave up 265 yards through the air. They also struggled to get off the field, allowing the Falcons to convert on 50% of their third down attempts.

On the defensive front, Tampa Bay did manage to generate some pressure, recording two sacks and finishing with a +4 advantage in both quarterback hits and tackles for loss. Overall, the Falcons finished with 394 total yards against the Buccaneers.

• Over their last three regular season games, the Buccaneers have gone 1-2 straight up. This includes going 1-2 vs. the spread along with an over-under mark of 3-0.
• The Buccaneers have gone 5-5 over their last ten regular season games. Across these games, their ATS record was just 5-5, while posting an over-under record of 7-3.

The Chiefs Can Win If…

The Chiefs remain undefeated at 7-0, giving them a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs and a 96.4% chance of winning the AFC West. They rank 4th in our NFL power rankings heading into week 9. Kansas City is 4-2-1 against the spread, including a week 7 win over the 49ers, where they covered as 2.5-point underdogs. In week 8, they beat the Raiders 27-20 but didn’t cover the 8.5-point spread.

Kansas City’s O/U record is 3-4, with their games averaging 42.3 points compared to an average line of 45. In week 8, the Chiefs and Raiders combined for 47 points, going over the 43-point line.

After struggling in week 7, Patrick Mahomes bounced back in week 8, throwing for 262 yards and 2 touchdowns on 27-of-38 passing against the Raiders. The Chiefs’ offense has been strong on third downs, converting 12 of 16 attempts in week 8. Kansas City is 2nd in the NFL in 3rd-down conversion percentage, with a 50.5% success rate. However, they rank 18th in red zone conversion percentage, despite being 8th in red zone attempts.

Kareem Hunt had 59 rushing yards on 21 carries in week 8, and Travis Kelce led the team with 90 receiving yards on 10 catches. JuJu Smith-Schuster had a 130-yard game in week 6, and Noah Gray had 66 yards in week 7. The Chiefs are 13th in the NFL in rushing yards per game, averaging 122.1, and Mahomes has been sacked 5 times in his last 3 games.

In their 27-20 win over the Raiders, the Chiefs’ defense allowed just 33 rushing yards on 21 attempts, with Las Vegas managing only 1.6 yards per attempt on the ground. The Chiefs also recorded five sacks and limited the Raiders to 195 passing yards. Despite this, the Raiders did find the endzone twice through the air, and the Chiefs allowed an 80% completion rate to Las Vegas.

On third downs, the Chiefs allowed the Raiders to convert 46.2% of their chances, and Kansas City’s offense finished with 228 total yards.

• Over their last three games, the Chiefs have gone 3-0 straight up. In addition, their ATS record over this stretch is 2-1 while posting a 2-1 over-under mark.
• Across Kansas City’s last ten regular season games, their record sits at 7-3. Against the spread, Kansas City went 6-4 in these games and finished with an over-under mark of 2-7-1.

The Lean

Our pick vs. the spread is to take the Buccaneers to cover as 8.5-point road underdogs in this week nine matchup between the Chiefs and Buccaneers. Even though we have the Chiefs winning 26-21, the Buccaneers are our pick to cover at +8.5.

For an over/under pick, we really like the over with the line sitting at just 45.5 points. Our projections have this game finishing with 47 combined points, making the over a strong play.

Weekly Football Picks from The Best NFL Expert Handicappers

Undefeated Chiefs Remain Resilient Amid Unimpressive Performances as They Prepare for Buccaneers Matchup

The Kansas City Chiefs stand as the only undefeated team in the NFL with a 7-0 record, a testament to their resilience rather than traditional dominance. Despite lacking the explosive offense they are known for, quarterback Patrick Mahomes remains confident in their ability to win.

A Season Defined by Grit Over Glamour

In contrast to past seasons marked by high-octane offensive performances, the Chiefs’ current campaign is characterized by closely contested games. Five of their seven wins were secured by a margin of seven points or fewer, and remarkably, they have yet to score 30 points in a single game. Mahomes, a two-time NFL MVP, finds himself ranked 16th in passing yardage with 1,651 yards and holds a less-than-ideal stat line of nine interceptions against eight touchdown passes.

Yet, Mahomes maintains a pragmatic approach: “When we win, it doesn’t hurt as bad,” he said. “I want to be perfect, I want to be great… but at the end of the day, I want to win. However we have to win the football game, I’m good with it.”

Defense: The Chiefs’ Secret Weapon

A critical moment underscoring Kansas City’s reliance on defense came during their October 27 victory over the Las Vegas Raiders. With a slim 17-13 lead in the third quarter, Mahomes threw an interception deep in Chiefs territory, giving the Raiders a first-and-goal from the 3-yard line. The Chiefs’ defense stepped up, stuffing three consecutive runs before Tershawn Wharton sacked quarterback Gardner Minshew on fourth down, preserving the lead and ultimately sealing a 27-20 win.

This sequence exemplifies why the Chiefs remain undefeated—defensive heroics have offset offensive inconsistencies, showing that they can win in different ways. “We’ve just got to keep getting better and better as we go,” said coach Andy Reid. “That’s the important thing, and guys are working hard.”

Context from Past Success

The Chiefs’ current season mirrors last year’s trajectory, where early-season challenges gave way to a strong finish and culminated in their third Super Bowl victory under Reid and Mahomes. This history of overcoming adversity suggests the team is capable of turning early-season bumps into a championship run.

Tampa Bay’s Offensive Punch and Defensive Flaws

The Buccaneers, entering the matchup at 4-4, have experienced their own rollercoaster of a season. Although they’ve averaged an impressive 34.2 points over their last five games, they’ve only managed two wins during that stretch. Quarterback Baker Mayfield, who leads the NFL with 21 touchdown passes and ranks second in passing yardage at 2,189, expressed frustration at the inconsistency: “The one stat we should be better in is wins,” he said.

However, like Mahomes, Mayfield is tied for the league-high in interceptions with nine, a figure he is determined to improve. “I don’t want to turn the ball over. To me, that’s shooting our whole team in the foot… it makes me angry. It’s something I can directly fix and that’s what I’m going to do,” Mayfield added.

Injury Setbacks for the Buccaneers

Tampa Bay’s offensive potential has been hampered by significant injuries. Star receiver Mike Evans is out for the second consecutive game with a hamstring injury, while Chris Godwin is sidelined long-term after dislocating his left ankle. Additionally, key contributors such as linebacker Lavonte David, defensive lineman Greg Gaines, running back Bucky Irving, and receiver Sterling Shepard were also absent from practice due to various injuries.

Defensively, the Buccaneers have struggled to maintain consistency, conceding 30 or more points in three of their last four games. Head coach Todd Bowles highlighted the need to eliminate costly errors: “We can make 62 good plays and five bad plays and it goes haywire. We’ve got to cut out the bad plays… we’re working on it daily.”

The Chiefs’ Injury Concerns

Kansas City also has its share of injury woes. Receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster sat out with a hamstring issue, offensive lineman Ethan Driskell missed practice due to illness, and cornerback Nazeeh Johnson was absent with a concussion. These absences could impact the depth of the Chiefs’ lineup as they face a potent Tampa Bay offense.

A Look at Historical Matchups

The Buccaneers have historically fared well against the Chiefs, winning six of their last eight meetings, including the lopsided 31-9 victory in Super Bowl LV behind Tom Brady. While the Chiefs have proven their resilience this season, Tampa Bay’s previous successes against them add intrigue to this matchup.

Quarterbacks’ Mental Fortitude

Both Mahomes and Mayfield have shown leadership and accountability, focusing on team success over individual statistics. Mahomes’ acceptance of lower personal stats in favor of winning reflects his growth as a leader. Similarly, Mayfield’s intent to curb turnovers to aid his team showcases his commitment to improvement.

Keys to the Game

For the Chiefs, continued reliance on their defense will be essential, while Mahomes will need to avoid turnovers that could jeopardize close games. On the other hand, the Buccaneers must patch up their defensive lapses and find ways to adjust to missing key offensive weapons if they hope to break even in the win column.

Conclusion

This matchup pits the resilient but imperfect Chiefs against a Buccaneers team fighting to find balance amid explosive offensive potential and defensive shortcomings. The Chiefs’ undefeated status, forged through teamwork and adaptability, will be tested by a Tampa Bay squad eager to prove they can compete despite their setbacks. Fans can expect a clash that highlights strategy, determination, and the importance of winning over style points.

Sign up!