Cleveland Browns vs Kansas City Chiefs Picks and Predictions December 15th 2024

Cleveland Browns vs Kansas City Chiefs December 15th 2024

The Browns, who are the underdog at +182 on the money line, will host the Chiefs at 1:00 ET on Sunday, December 15th at Huntington Bank Field in Cleveland. The Chiefs are favored on the road with their -4.5 point spread. The game is being televised on CBS, and the Chiefs’ money line odds are -219. The over/under line is set at 45.5 points.

Kansas City vs. Cleveland Key Information

• Teams: Chiefs at Browns
• Where: Huntington Bank Field Cleveland
• Date: Sunday, December 15th
• Betting Odds KC -219 | CLE +182 O/U 45.5

The Chiefs Can Win If…

With a 12-1 record, the Chiefs sit atop the AFC standings and have a 100% chance of making the playoffs and winning the AFC West. They are on a three-game winning streak, including a narrow 19-17 victory over the Chargers in week 14. Kansas City was favored by 4.5 points but couldn’t cover the spread, and the 36 combined points fell short of the 43-point O/U line.

The Chiefs rank 6th in our NFL power rankings and have an average scoring margin of +4.3 points per game. They are 4-8-1 against the spread and have failed to cover in seven straight games. Their O/U record is 6-7, with the under hitting in two consecutive games.

Patrick Mahomes has thrown for over 200 yards in each of his last three games, including a 306-yard performance in week 13 against the Raiders. In week 14, he finished with 210 yards and one touchdown on 24/37 passing. Mahomes has not thrown an interception in his last three games. Isiah Pacheco led the Chiefs in rushing in week 14 with 55 yards on 14 carries, while Travis Kelce had 5 receptions for 45 yards.

Kansas City ranks 7th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 15. They lead the NFL in 3rd down conversions and are 11th in points per game, averaging 23.7. The Chiefs are 16th in passing yards per game (227.6) and 21st in rushing yards per game (110.6).

In their 19-17 win over the Chargers, the Chiefs’ defense allowed 194 passing yards on 21 completions. The Chiefs defended the run well, allowing just 94 yards on 24 attempts. They also recorded three sacks and had a tackles for loss advantage of +5.

The Chiefs held the Chargers to 46.2% on third down and limited them to 288 total yards. Although the Chargers did find the endzone once through the air, Kansas City defended well, allowing just 1 passing touchdown.

• Spanning across their last three games, Kansas City have gone 3-0. However, they have only gone 0-3 vs. the spread over this stretch. Their over-under record in these three games was 1-2.
• Through their last ten regular season contests, Kansas City has a record of 9-1. Their record against the spread in this stretch is 2-7-1 to go along with an over-under mark of 4-6.

The Browns Can Win If…

The Browns are 3-10 this season, putting them 4th in the AFC North. They have a 2-2 record in division play and are 3-5 against AFC opponents. Cleveland has lost two straight games, including a 27-14 defeat to the Steelers in week 14. Before that, they beat Pittsburgh in week 12 but couldn’t carry that momentum into week 13, falling 41-32 to the Broncos.

Heading into week 15, the Browns have a -7.9 scoring margin and rank 21st in our NFL power rankings. They have no chance of making the playoffs or winning the division. Against the spread, Cleveland is 4-9, with a 0-4 record as favorites and a 4-5 mark as underdogs. Their O/U record is 6-7, with their games averaging 43.6 points per game.

Heading into week 15, the Browns rank 31st in our offensive power rankings. They lead the league in passing attempts per game with 39.4, resulting in 224.5 passing yards per game, which ranks 15th. Jameis Winston threw for 212 yards (24/41) and 2 touchdowns in week 14, following his 497-yard performance in week 13. Jerry Jeudy has been his top target, with 5 catches for 64 yards in week 14, after posting 9 catches for 235 yards in week 13.

On the ground, Cleveland ranks 30th in rushing yards per game, averaging 88.5 yards on 23 attempts per game. Nick Chubb had 48 yards on 11 carries in week 14. The Browns have struggled on third down, converting just 28.3% of their attempts, which ranks 29th in the NFL.

In their 27-14 loss to the Steelers, the Browns’ defense gave up 147 yards through the air on 15 completions. They scored just one sack and allowed two passing touchdowns. The Browns’ run defense allowed 120 yards on 35 attempts, but they did hold Pittsburgh to 3.4 yards per attempt. Cleveland also allowed the Steelers to convert on 42.9% of their third down attempts.

• Cleveland will look to keep things rolling as they have put together a mark of 2-1 over their past three games. This also includes going 2-1 ATS and an over-under mark of 2-1.
• Cleveland has put together a record of 6-4 in their last ten games (regular season). In these matchups, they ended with an ATS record of 6-4 and an over-under mark of 5-5.

The Lean

Our pick vs. the spread is to take the Chiefs to cover as road favorites. Right now, the point spread lines have the Browns at +4.5, and with our projected final score being 24-19 in favor of the Chiefs, we are going with them to cover.

For an over/under pick, we like taking the under, with a projected combined score of 43 points, just below the O/U line of 45.5 points.

Chiefs Aim to Stay Focused Against the Browns

The Kansas City Chiefs (12-1) visit the Cleveland Browns (3-10) on Sunday, intent on avoiding a letdown after clinching the AFC West for the ninth consecutive season. Head coach Andy Reid emphasized the importance of maintaining focus as Kansas City continues its push toward the playoffs.

“We’re not just putting the tent up right here and calling it a day,” Reid said. “There’s more left.”

Kansas City’s Tightrope Wins

The Chiefs secured the AFC West last week with a dramatic 19-17 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers, capped by Matthew Wright’s game-winning field goal that ricocheted off the upright and in. Despite their 12-1 record, Kansas City’s victories haven’t come easily this season—10 of their wins have been decided by seven points or fewer.

Quarterback Patrick Mahomes acknowledged the challenges of a compressed schedule with three games in 11 days:
“You never want to play this many games in this short of time. … But at the end of the day, it’s your job. You have to come to work and do it.”

Mahomes, who leads the NFL in passing yards, will face a Browns defense that has struggled with consistency but still boasts star power in Myles Garrett. Garrett missed Wednesday’s practice for personal reasons but is expected to play Sunday.

Browns Play for Pride

While Cleveland is officially out of playoff contention after last week’s 27-14 loss to Pittsburgh, the Browns are determined to finish strong. Right guard Wyatt Teller emphasized the importance of competing despite the team’s record:
“Every game’s a part of your resume. … You’re always fighting for something, you’re always working for something.”

Cleveland’s offense has shown flashes of potential, averaging 378.2 yards per game over its last five contests. However, finishing drives has been an issue, a trend that could haunt the Browns against a Chiefs team that thrives in close games.

Key Players and Injury Updates

Kansas City Chiefs:

• Patrick Mahomes: Leads the league in passing yards and remains the centerpiece of Kansas City’s offense.
• Harrison Butker: The Chiefs’ starting kicker is expected to return after missing time with a knee injury.
• Injuries: Offensive tackle Jawaan Taylor (knee) was limited in practice, while D.J. Humphries (hamstring) did not participate.

Cleveland Browns:

• Myles Garrett: The All-Pro defensive end’s availability is crucial to slowing down Mahomes.
• David Njoku: The dynamic tight end missed practice with a hamstring injury, potentially limiting Cleveland’s offensive options.
• Injuries: Guard Joel Bitonio (back) and cornerback Martin Emerson (shin) were among those limited.

Keys to the Game

Kansas City Chiefs:

• Avoid Overconfidence: Stay disciplined and avoid looking ahead to the packed schedule that follows.
• Protect Mahomes: With injuries along the offensive line, limiting Garrett’s impact will be critical.
• Early Momentum: Establish a lead early to avoid a shootout with Cleveland’s capable offense.

Cleveland Browns:

• Capitalize on Opportunities: Convert yards into points to keep up with Kansas City’s high-powered offense.
• Pressure Mahomes: Disrupt Kansas City’s passing attack by creating pressure with Garrett and the defensive line.
• Limit Turnovers: Minimize mistakes to give themselves a chance against the AFC’s top team.

Matchup Outlook

The Chiefs enter the game as heavy favorites, but with a packed schedule looming, focus and execution will be key to avoiding a trap game against Cleveland. Meanwhile, the Browns are playing for pride and individual performances, aiming to make a statement against one of the NFL’s elite teams.

Look for Kansas City to lean on Mahomes’ playmaking ability and their knack for close-game victories to extend their momentum as they march toward the postseason.