Cleveland Browns vs Miami Dolphins Picks and Predictions December 29th 2024

Cleveland Browns vs Miami Dolphins December 29th 2024

The Dolphins are favored on the road with a money line of -296 as they take on the Browns in a week 17 AFC matchup. The Browns are +240 on the money line, and the point spread has the Dolphins -6.5. The game, which will be played at Huntington Bank Field in Cleveland, is set for 4:05 ET, with CBS handling the television coverage. The over/under line is at 40 points.

Miami vs. Cleveland Key Information

• Teams: Dolphins at Browns
• Where: Huntington Bank Field Cleveland
• Date: Sunday, December 29th
• Betting Odds MIA -296 | CLE +240 O/U 40

The Dolphins Can Win If…

Heading into week 17, the Dolphins are 7-8 after defeating the 49ers 29-17 in week 16. Miami entered the game as 1.5-point underdogs but managed to cover the spread with a 12-point win. The combined score of 46 points narrowly went over the 44-point line. Before this, the Dolphins had lost two straight, including a 20-12 defeat to the Texans in week 15.

Miami currently has an 8.3% chance of making the playoffs and ranks 14th in our NFL power rankings. They are 6-9 against the spread, with a scoring margin of -1.6 points per game. Their O/U record is 7-8, with their games averaging 42.3 points compared to an average line of 45.1.

Heading into week 17, the Dolphins rank 17th in our offensive power rankings. They are 23rd in the NFL in points per game, averaging 20.3, and 17th in yards per game, with 327.9. Miami ranks 15th in passing yards per game (222.1) and 24th in rushing yards per game (105.7). They are 17th in the league in 3rd-down conversion percentage and 13th in red zone attempts, converting 26.1% of their trips, which ranks 17th.

Tua Tagovailoa bounced back in week 16, posting a passer rating of 92 after his 3-interception game in week 15. He threw for 215 yards and a touchdown on 22/34 passing against the 49ers. De’Von Achane had a big game, rushing for 120 yards on 17 carries and adding 6 catches for 70 yards.

In their 29-17 win over the 49ers, the Dolphins’ defense allowed 374 total yards. They gave up 293 passing yards on 26 completions, with San Francisco managing just 81 rushing yards on 18 attempts. Miami defended the run game well, holding the 49ers to 4.5 yards per attempt. The Dolphins also came away with three sacks and an interception, while the 49ers converted just 38.5% of their third down attempts.

• Miami will look to keep things rolling as they have put together a mark of 2-1 over their past three games. However, they have only gone 1-2 vs. the spread over this stretch. Their over-under record in these three games was 2-1.
• Through their last ten regular season contests, Miami has a record of 5-5. In these matchups, they ended with an ATS record of 5-5 and an over-under mark of 6-4.

The Browns Can Win If…

Heading into week 17, the Browns are on a four-game losing streak, dropping their record to 3-12. This includes a 24-6 loss to the Bengals in week 16, where they failed to cover the spread as 10-point underdogs. Cleveland also couldn’t cover in their previous three games, including a 14-point home loss to the Chiefs in week 15.

With the Browns out of playoff contention, they rank 23rd in our NFL power rankings. Their average scoring margin this season is -9, and they are 4-11 against the spread. Their O/U record is 6-9, with the under hitting in three straight games.

Heading into week 17, the Browns rank 32nd in our offensive power rankings. They are 30th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 16.3, and 25th in yards per game with 307.2. Despite leading the league in passing attempts per game (38.7), they are 19th in passing yards, averaging 211.3. On the ground, they rank 24th in rushing attempts and 27th in rushing yards, with 95.9 per game. Cleveland has struggled on third down, converting just 28.4% of their attempts, which ranks 31st in the NFL. However, they lead the league in red zone conversion percentage at 61.3%.

In week 16, Dorian Thompson-Robinson took over at quarterback, throwing for 157 yards on 20/34 passing, with 2 interceptions and no touchdowns. He was sacked 5 times. Jerome Ford led the rushing attack with 92 yards on 11 carries, while David Njoku had 8 receptions for 66 yards. The Browns scored all 6 of their points in the 3rd quarter against the Bengals, failing to score in the 1st, 2nd, and 4th quarters.

The Browns’ defense gave up three passing touchdowns in their 24-6 loss to the Bengals, allowing them to complete 76.7% of their passes. Despite recording four sacks, the Browns struggled to stop the Bengals’ passing game, giving up 210 yards through the air. On the ground, the Browns allowed 116 rushing yards on just 22 attempts, with the Bengals averaging 5.3 yards per attempt.

Cleveland’s defense couldn’t get off the field, as the Bengals converted 36.4% of their third down attempts. The Browns also lost the QB hit and tackles for loss differentials in this game.

• Through their last three regular season contests, Cleveland has a record of 1-2. Across these games, their ATS record was just 1-2, while posting an over-under record of 1-2.
• The Browns have gone 5-5 over their last ten regular season games. Against the spread, Cleveland went 5-5 in these games and finished with an over-under mark of 5-5.

The Lean

Our pick vs. the spread for this week 17 matchup between the Browns and Dolphins is to take the Browns to cover as home underdogs. Right now, the point spread lines have the Browns at +6.5, and we have them winning 20-15 and covering the spread.

For the over/under, with the line sitting at 40 points, we have a prediction of 35 combined points, making the under a good play in this one.

Dolphins Cling to Playoff Hopes Against Browns

The Miami Dolphins head into their matchup against the Cleveland Browns on Sunday with their postseason fate hanging by a thread. They need favorable results from other AFC games to keep their playoff hopes alive, but regardless of the outcomes, coach Mike McDaniel is urging his team to finish strong.

Miami’s Late-Season Resurgence

After a dismal 1-6 stretch early in the season, the Dolphins (7-8) have rebounded, winning five of their last seven games. A significant factor in the turnaround has been the return of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who has helped revive the offense.

Tagovailoa’s connection with receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, along with the emergence of rookie running back De’Von Achane, has powered the Dolphins’ attack. Achane racked up 190 scrimmage yards in last week’s 29-17 win over the San Francisco 49ers, providing a spark for the offense.

Despite a hip injury that limited him in practice, Tagovailoa remains optimistic:
“Every game is an opportunity. You don’t know if there’s going to be another one for you,” he said.

Browns Play for Pride

For the Cleveland Browns (3-12), the season has been a disappointment. With key injuries and inconsistency, they find themselves among the league’s bottom dwellers, now playing for draft positioning.

Second-year quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson will make another start in place of injured veterans Jameis Winston and Deshaun Watson. Thompson-Robinson struggled last week against the Bengals, completing just 58.8% of his passes for 166 yards and throwing two interceptions. He aims to bounce back by playing smarter and using his athleticism more effectively.

One subplot for Cleveland is the potential farewell for six-time Pro Bowl guard Joel Bitonio, who is contemplating retirement. Bitonio has been a cornerstone of the Browns’ offensive line for years but admitted this week that the grind of losing seasons has taken a toll.

Key Injuries Impact Both Teams

The Dolphins could be without several key players, including tackle Terron Armstead, linebacker Anthony Walker, and cornerback Kendall Fuller. Both Hill (wrist) and Waddle (knee) were limited in practice, raising concerns about their availability.

The Browns are equally banged up, with tight end David Njoku (knee) and defensive end Ogbo Okoronkwo (knee) missing practice, while multiple players, including Jameis Winston (shoulder) and wide receiver Cedric Tillman (concussion), were limited.

Matchup to Watch: Miami’s Offense vs. Cleveland’s Defense

Cleveland’s defense will need to step up against Miami’s dynamic offense. While the Dolphins rank near the bottom in sacks and interceptions, their offense has been potent when healthy. Conversely, the Browns will rely on their pass rush and secondary to create turnovers and limit big plays.

What’s at Stake

• Dolphins: Miami must win and hope for help from other teams to remain in playoff contention.
• Browns: Cleveland is looking for a rare win to end their season on a positive note and build momentum for the future.

Don’t miss out—explore NFL Week 17 Odds & Predictions for expert picks and analysis!

Prediction

The Dolphins’ recent form and superior offensive firepower give them the edge, even with Tagovailoa nursing an injury. Cleveland’s struggles at quarterback and on defense make it challenging to keep pace.

Final Score: Dolphins 27, Browns 17