Indianapolis Colts vs Buffalo Bills Picks and Predictions November 10th 2024

Colts vs Bills November 10th 2024

The Colts, who are the underdog at +171 on the money line, will host the Buffalo Bills at 1:00 ET on Sunday, November 10th at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. The Bills are favored by -4 on the road in this week ten AFC matchup. The game is being televised on CBS, with the Bills’ money line at -205 and the over/under line is set at 46 points.

Buffalo vs. Indianapolis Key Information

• Teams: Bills at Colts
• Where: Lucas Oil Stadium Indianapolis
• Date: Sunday, November 10th
• Betting Odds BUF -205 | IND +171 O/U 46

The Bills Can Win If…

Buffalo heads into week 10 with a four-game winning streak, including a 30-27 victory over the Dolphins in week 9. The Bills couldn’t cover the 6-point spread in that game, but they still hold a +9.7 average scoring margin and are 5-4 against the spread this season. They rank 4th in our NFL power rankings and have a 98.5% chance of winning the AFC East, where they currently sit in first place with a 7-2 record.

Buffalo has a 99.6% chance of making the playoffs, according to our projections. They are 3-0 in division games and 5-2 in conference play. The Bills are 4-0 at home and 3-2 on the road this season.

Josh Allen has been solid over the last three weeks, posting passer ratings of 95 in week 9, 102 in week 8, and 116 in week 7. Against the Dolphins in week 9, he threw for 235 yards and 3 touchdowns, completing 25 of 39 passes. James Cook led the rushing attack with 44 yards on 10 carries, while Ray Davis had 70 receiving yards on 2 catches, including a touchdown.

Heading into week 10, the Bills sit 4th in our offensive power rankings. They are 4th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 28.9, and are 15th in passing yards per game with 216.1. Buffalo ranks 16th in rushing yards per game, averaging 119.1, and they are 15th in 3rd-down conversion percentage.

In their 30-27 win over the Dolphins, the Bills’ defense gave up 373 yards, with Miami finding success in the running game, rushing for 149 yards on 31 attempts. Buffalo allowed Miami to complete 89.3% of their passes for 224 yards, with two touchdowns and averaging 8 yards per attempt.

Buffalo’s defense struggled on third downs, allowing Miami to convert 50% of their third down attempts. The Bills only managed one sack in the game.

• Spanning across their last three games, Buffalo have gone 3-0. In terms of betting, the team went 2-1 ATS in these matchups. Their over/under record in these matchups is 2-1.
• Across Buffalo’s last ten regular season games, their record sits at 7-3. The team’s record vs the spread was just 5-5, in addition to an over-under mark of 6-4.

The Colts Can Win If…

After a week 7 win over the Dolphins, the Colts have now dropped two straight, including a 21-13 loss to the Vikings in week 9. This puts them at 4-5 on the season, leaving them 2nd in the AFC South. They are 1-3 in division games and 3-3 in conference play. Our projections give them a 37.2% chance of making the playoffs and a 9.7% chance of winning the division.

Heading into week 10, the Colts rank 21st in our power rankings. Despite their negative scoring margin (-0.6), they are 7-2 against the spread, including a 5-1 record as underdogs. Their O/U record is 3-6, with the under hitting in four straight games.

Heading into week 10, the Colts rank 23rd in our offensive power rankings. They are 21st in the league in points per game, averaging 20.9, and 22nd in passing yards, with 193.7 per game. On the ground, they rank 16th in rushing yards, averaging 121.3 per game on 26.1 attempts. Indianapolis ranks 19th in 3rd-down conversions, with a 36.6% success rate, and they are 12th in red zone conversion percentage.

Jonathan Taylor led the Colts in rushing in week 9, with 48 yards on 13 carries, while Joe Flacco threw for 179 yards on 16/27 passing, with one interception. Josh Downs had 6 catches for 60 yards. The Colts struggled on 3rd down, converting only 3 of 11 attempts, and did not have any red zone opportunities against the Vikings.

In their 21-13 loss to the Vikings, the Colts’ defense gave up 415 yards and struggled to get off the field on third down, allowing a 50% conversion rate. Despite forcing two interceptions, the Colts allowed three passing touchdowns and Minnesota to complete 82.9% of their passes for 282 yards.

Indianapolis did manage to sack the quarterback four times and won the tackles for loss battle by a margin of +4. The Colts also gave up 133 rushing yards on 32 attempts.

• Through their last three games, the Colts have a record of 3-0. Against the spread, the team is 3-0 in these same games while going 1-2 on the over/under.
• Through their last ten regular season contests, Indianapolis has a record of 6-4. In these matchups, they ended with an ATS record of 7-3 and an over-under mark of 7-3.

The Lean

Our pick vs. the spread is to take the Colts to cover as home favorites in their matchup against the Bills. The current line has the Colts at -4, and we have them winning by a score of 24-22.

For this week 10 matchup, we like the Colts to cover the spread. As for an over/under pick, with the line sitting at 46 points, we are leaning towards the under with a projected combined score of 46 points.

Weekly Football Picks from The Best NFL Expert Handicappers

Bills Need to Step Up Run Defense Against Jonathan Taylor and the Colts

Heading into Week 10, the Buffalo Bills are on track for an AFC East title, but challenges remain. As they prepare to visit the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, one critical question looms: Can the Bills’ defense contain Jonathan Taylor and the Colts’ powerful run game?

With a 7-2 record, the Bills are in a strong position, up by four games in the division. However, coach Sean McDermott and his team know better than to coast; each week brings new challenges, and the Colts, despite their 4-5 record, have the tools to cause problems—especially on the ground.

Bills’ Defensive Struggles Against Miami

Buffalo’s recent victory over the Miami Dolphins, 30-27, highlighted some defensive concerns. Though the win marked a season sweep of Miami, the Bills allowed the Dolphins to rack up 373 total yards and 26 first downs, keeping the ball for nearly 32 minutes. Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa completed 25 of 28 passes, underscoring a need for tighter coverage and more aggressive defensive tactics.

Coach McDermott acknowledged the team’s room for improvement. “We didn’t play a great game. We can be better,” he said, emphasizing that technique and fundamentals will be crucial to the team’s success as they face the Colts’ run-centric attack.

Jonathan Taylor: A Major Threat for Buffalo’s Defense

Indianapolis’ star running back, Jonathan Taylor, presents a unique challenge. Known for his speed, strength, and vision, Taylor has consistently ranked among the league’s top running backs. Buffalo’s defense, which just allowed 149 rushing yards against Miami, will have to step up to avoid a repeat of their 2021 matchup with Taylor, when he shredded their defense for 185 yards and four touchdowns in a dominant 41-15 Colts victory.

In response, Buffalo signed defensive tackles Jordan Phillips and Quinton Jefferson, both familiar faces to the team. Phillips and Jefferson are expected to help fortify Buffalo’s run defense, especially with other linemen sidelined due to injuries.

Colts Face Their Own Challenges: Injuries on the Offensive Line

While Buffalo scrambles to shore up their defensive line, the Colts are facing significant challenges on their offensive line. Four-time Pro Bowl center Ryan Kelly is on injured reserve with a knee injury, leaving rookie Tanor Bortolini to step up in his place. This transition could affect Indianapolis’ ability to protect quarterback Gardner Minshew and open lanes for Taylor against a bolstered Buffalo defensive front.

In addition, Indianapolis may be without standout linebacker Zaire Franklin, who missed practice earlier in the week due to an ankle injury. On the offensive side, receiver Michael Pittman Jr. has been dealing with back and finger issues, though he’s expected to play. After a low-output game last week, Pittman will be looking to rebound and add depth to the Colts’ offense.

Key Matchups to Watch

• Buffalo Defensive Line vs. Jonathan Taylor: Phillips and Jefferson’s ability to control the interior will be vital. Taylor’s agility and strength make him a tough runner to contain, but disciplined gap control and solid tackling will be critical if Buffalo hopes to limit his impact.
• Tanor Bortolini vs. Bills’ Pass Rush: The rookie center’s performance will be crucial for the Colts. If Bortolini can’t hold up under Buffalo’s pressure, Minshew could struggle to find time in the pocket, and Taylor’s effectiveness on the ground could be limited.
• Michael Pittman Jr. vs. Bills’ Secondary: With the Colts’ passing game somewhat limited by Pittman’s recent injuries, Buffalo’s secondary has a chance to capitalize on short routes and disrupt timing. This could also help free up linebackers to focus on run support.

Historical Context: Motivation and Rivalry

Buffalo holds a slight edge in the all-time series, with a 37-33-1 record against the Colts. However, the recent memory of their last meeting—when Taylor’s 185-yard, four-touchdown performance led the Colts to a decisive 41-15 victory—will likely fuel Buffalo’s determination to avoid another breakdown.

Strategy and Keys to Victory

For Buffalo:

1. Improve Run Defense: Focus on gap discipline and tackle consistency to limit Taylor’s impact.
2. Leverage Defensive Additions: Integrate Phillips and Jefferson effectively to bolster interior strength.
3. Maintain Offensive Control: Limit turnovers and maintain time of possession to keep the Colts’ offense off the field.

For Indianapolis:

1. Protect the Pocket: Bortolini’s success will be key to stabilizing the offensive line and allowing for more balanced play-calling.
2. Get Taylor Involved Early: Establishing Taylor in the first half will open up passing opportunities and keep Buffalo’s defense on its heels.
3. Involve Pittman and Secondary Receivers: Spread out the Bills’ defense by targeting Pittman and other receivers, especially if Taylor draws heavy attention.

Conclusion: Bills’ Defense Must Answer the Call

Sunday’s matchup will put Buffalo’s playoff aspirations to the test. By containing Jonathan Taylor, the Bills can avoid a repeat of 2021’s disappointment and keep momentum in their favor. For the Colts, it’s an opportunity to stay competitive in the AFC South and prove they can deliver under pressure despite their setbacks.

As Buffalo works to secure a commanding divisional lead, this game may come down to which team’s adjustments hold up best under game-day pressure.