Indianapolis Colts vs Miami Dolphins Picks and Predictions October 20th 2024

Colts vs Dolphins October 20th 2024

FOX will broadcast the week seven AFC matchup between the Dolphins and Colts from Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. The game is set for 1:00 ET, with the Colts favored at -3.5. The Colts are the favorite on the money line at -189, and the over/under line is at 43.5 points. The Dolphins and Colts both need to add to their records in this one.

Miami vs. Indianapolis Key Information

Heading into week 7, the Dolphins hold a 2-3 record, placing them 2nd in the AFC East. After three straight losses, Miami bounced back in week 5 with a 15-10 win over the Patriots, bringing their division record to 1-1. In that game, they covered the 2-point spread, but the 25 points fell short of the 37-point O/U line.

According to our power rankings, the Dolphins rank 31st, and we give them a 9% chance of making the playoffs. They are 1-4 against the spread, with an average scoring margin of -10.6 points per game. Their O/U record stands at 1-4, with their games averaging 34.6 points.

Heading into week 7, the Dolphins are 29th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 12, and they rank 23rd in total yards per game with 302.4. They are 26th in passing yards, with 185.6 per game, on 32.2 attempts per game, which ranks 13th. On the ground, Miami ranks 18th in rushing yards per game, averaging 116.8 on 29.6 attempts per game, which is 9th in the league. They have struggled on 3rd down, converting just 30.3% of their attempts, which ranks 26th in the NFL, but they are 2nd in the league in red zone conversion percentage.

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Tyler Huntley threw for 194 yards in week 5, completing 18 of 31 passes, but he did not throw a touchdown and had one interception. Tyreek Hill led the team with 69 receiving yards on 6 catches, and Jaylen Wright had 86 rushing yards on 13 carries. Miami scored 6 points in both the 3rd and 4th quarters in their win over the Patriots.

In the Dolphins’ 15-10 win over the Patriots, Miami’s defense allowed just 148 passing yards on 18 completions. However, they struggled against the run, giving up 151 yards on only 19 attempts, including a few big runs, resulting in 7.9 yards per attempt. Miami’s defense held New England to a 30.8% conversion rate on third down and allowed only 4.4 yards per passing attempt.

Miami’s defense also managed two sacks in the game and came out on top in the quarterback hit battle, with four more hits than the Patriots.

Heading into week 7, the Colts sit 7th in the AFC standings with a 3-3 record. After a week 5 loss to the Jaguars, Indianapolis bounced back with a 20-17 win over the Titans in week 6. The Colts were 2.5-point underdogs in this game, but the win extended their ATS streak to 4 games. They are 5-1 against the spread this season, including a 4-0 record as underdogs.

According to our projections, the Colts have a 51.8% chance of making the playoffs and a 13.8% chance of winning the AFC South. They currently rank 17th in our NFL power rankings. Their O/U record is 3-3, with their games averaging 46.3 points compared to an average line of 43.4.

Heading into week 7, the Colts are 15th in our offensive power rankings, averaging 23.2 points per game (14th) and 336.8 yards per game (13th). They rank 17th in passing yards per game (219.2) and 17th in rushing yards per game (117.7). Despite being 6th in red zone attempts, they are 22nd in conversion percentage (19%). On 3rd down, they are converting 42.7% of the time, which ranks 7th in the NFL.

Joe Flacco threw for 189 yards (22/38) with 2 touchdowns and 1 interception in week 6. Josh Downs led the team with 66 receiving yards, and Tyler Goodson had 51 rushing yards. The Colts scored 10 points in the 4th quarter against the Titans after being shut out in the 3rd quarter.

In their 20-17 win over the Titans, the Colts’ defense gave up 146 rushing yards on 28 attempts, including a 5.2 average. However, they were tough against the pass, allowing just 95 yards through the air on 16 completions. The Colts picked off one pass and held the Titans to a 36.4% conversion rate on third down.

Despite not recording any sacks, the Colts did manage two more quarterback hits than the Titans. The Colts’ defense limited the Titans to 241 total yards in the game.

Our pick against the spread in this Dolphins vs. Colts matchup is to take the Dolphins to cover as road underdogs. They are sitting at +3.5 point road underdogs, and we have them winning by a score of 25-17.

For the over/under, with the line sitting at 43.5 points, we have a projected combined score of 42 points, making the under a good bet for this week 7 matchup.

Quarterbacks’ Health a Major Issue for Dolphins, Colts

The Miami Dolphins and Indianapolis Colts are both dealing with significant quarterback uncertainties as they prepare for their Week 7 clash on Sunday in Indianapolis. With star players sidelined and backups stepping in, both teams are navigating uncharted territory in hopes of staying competitive in the AFC.

Dolphins Awaiting Tagovailoa’s Return

The Dolphins (2-3) have been without their star quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa, since Week 2, when he sustained a concussion in a game against the Buffalo Bills. Since then, Miami’s offense has sputtered, struggling to find any consistency. The team has averaged just 12 points per game during Tagovailoa’s absence and failed to score more than 15 points in any of the last three games.

Head coach Mike McDaniel is cautiously optimistic about Tagovailoa’s eventual return but made it clear that the team is still waiting for a concrete timeline.

“There is still information that he’s seeking this week,” McDaniel said. “As far as timelines go, I know he’s not playing this week and I do expect to see him playing football in 2024. But where that is exactly, we’ll let the process continue.”

In Tagovailoa’s absence, the Dolphins have relied on Tyler Huntley, who stepped in as the starter after backup Skylar Thompson sustained a rib injury in Week 3. Huntley, who joined the team in mid-September, has yet to throw a touchdown pass in his two starts and has thrown one interception.

McDaniel hopes the team’s recent bye week will help Huntley settle into the offense.

“It was just imperative that he could have more time on task to study and to review the footwork of some of our core concepts and core fundamentals, which he did a great job working through,” McDaniel said.

Dolphins’ Offensive Struggles

The lack of stability at quarterback has hindered the production of Miami’s star receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Hill, who has 23 receptions for 286 yards, has found the end zone just once this season, while Waddle (21 catches, 258 yards) has yet to score. Last season, the dynamic duo combined for over 2,800 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns.

The Dolphins’ rushing attack also took a hit during Tagovailoa’s absence, though there is optimism that De’Von Achane could clear concussion protocol and return this week. Raheem Mostert, who rushed for 80 yards in Miami’s 15-10 win over New England on Oct. 6, will look to keep the ground game going as the team tries to weather its offensive woes.

Colts Quarterback Situation

The Colts (3-3) have their own quarterback issues to navigate. Rookie Anthony Richardson, who missed the past two games with an oblique injury, practiced in full on Wednesday and is expected to start Sunday unless he suffers a setback.

“Because he’s a guy that touches the ball on every play, and it’s a long season, (just) wanted to make sure he’s 100 percent before he goes back out there,” Colts head coach Shane Steichen said.

In Richardson’s absence, veteran Joe Flacco stepped in and performed admirably, throwing for 716 yards, seven touchdowns, and just one interception in the past three games. Flacco led the Colts to a dramatic 20-17 win over the Tennessee Titans last week, connecting with Michael Pittman Jr. for the go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter.

Colts’ Key Injuries

While Flacco’s play has kept the Colts competitive, the team has been hampered by injuries to several key players. Star running back Jonathan Taylor, who has rushed for 349 yards and four touchdowns, missed the last two games with an ankle injury and did not practice Wednesday. His status for Sunday’s game is unclear.

Wide receivers Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs, along with center Ryan Kelly and linebacker E.J. Speed, were also among the players who missed practice on Wednesday.

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Defensive Concerns

Both teams are dealing with injuries on defense as well. For the Dolphins, safeties Jevon Holland (hand) and Jordan Poyer (shin) were limited participants in practice on Wednesday. Miami’s defense has been solid, but the absence of key players in the secondary could complicate things against a Colts team that has shown the ability to make plays down the field.

On the Colts’ side, linebacker E.J. Speed’s knee injury could hurt Indianapolis’ ability to defend Miami’s rushing attack, especially if Mostert and Achane are both available.

History and Outlook

The Colts have won three of the last four meetings between the teams, and given the current quarterback situation, this matchup could be pivotal for both franchises as they look to stay in playoff contention. Miami’s hopes will largely hinge on Huntley’s ability to manage the game and get Hill and Waddle more involved, while the Colts will look to Richardson’s return to provide a spark.

With injuries affecting both offenses, the outcome of Sunday’s game may ultimately come down to which team’s defense can step up and force turnovers. Either way, both the Dolphins and Colts will be eager to get back in the win column as they navigate the uncertainty surrounding their most important position.