Indianapolis Colts vs Detroit Lions Picks and Predictions November 24th 2024

Colts vs Lions November 24th 2024

The Lions are favored on the road with a money line of -365 as they take on the Colts at 1:00 ET on Sunday, November 24th. The Colts, the underdog, have a money line of +290 and the point spread is Detroit -7.5. This non-conference matchup is being televised on FOX, and the over/under line is set at 51 points.

Detroit vs. Indianapolis Key Information

With an eight-game winning streak, the Lions sit atop our NFL power rankings and have a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs. After a narrow 26-23 win over the Texans in week 10, Detroit bounced back with a dominant 52-6 victory over the Jaguars in week 11. The Lions easily covered the 14-point spread in that game, improving their ATS record to 8-2 this season.

Detroit’s games have averaged 51.3 points, compared to an O/U line of 49.8. Their O/U record stands at 5-4-1. In week 11, the Lions and Jaguars combined for 58 points, going over the 47.5-point line.

Heading into week 12, the Lions are 2nd in our offensive power rankings and lead the NFL in scoring, averaging 33.6 points per game. They rank 3rd in total yards per game (394.7) and 6th in passing yards, despite being 26th in passing attempts. Detroit is also 3rd in rushing yards per game, with 32.3 attempts per game, and they rank 6th in 3rd-down conversions. However, they are 27th in red zone conversion percentage, despite being 4th in red zone attempts.

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Jared Goff is coming off a stellar week 11 performance, throwing for 412 yards and 4 touchdowns on 24/29 passing, earning a perfect passer rating of 158.3. Amon-Ra St. Brown had 11 catches for 161 yards and 2 touchdowns, while David Montgomery rushed for 75 yards and 2 scores. The Lions scored in every quarter against the Jaguars, finishing with 52 points.

The Lions’ defense was dominant in their 52-6 win over the Jaguars, holding Jacksonville to just 129 yards passing. They defended 17 rushing attempts for only 41 yards, allowing just 2.4 yards per attempt. Detroit’s defense also limited the Jaguars to a 20% conversion rate on third down and came away with one interception.

Overall, the Lions gave up only 170 yards and prevented Jacksonville from scoring any touchdowns through the air or on the ground. They also managed to get one sack and had a good day in terms of pressuring the quarterback.

With a 5-6 record, the Colts currently sit 8th in the AFC and 2nd in the AFC South. Our projections give them a 32.6% chance of making the playoffs and a 5% chance of winning their division. Heading into week 12, they rank 25th in our NFL power rankings.

Against the spread, the Colts are 8-3, including a 6-2 record as underdogs. Their O/U record is 5-6, with the over hitting in their last two games. Their games have averaged 44.2 points, which is exactly the same as the average O/U line in their matchups this season.

Heading into week 12, the Colts rank 24th in our offensive power rankings. They are 18th in the NFL in points per game (21.5) and 21st in yards per game (320.7). Indianapolis ranks 20th in passing attempts (30.4) and passing yards per game (202.2), while also sitting 20th in rushing attempts and 16th in rushing yards per game (118.5). On third down, the Colts are 19th in the league with a 37% conversion rate, and they rank 17th in red zone conversion percentage (26.5%) despite being 8th in red zone attempts.

Anthony Richardson took over at quarterback in week 11, throwing for 272 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions in the Colts’ win over the Jets. Jonathan Taylor had 24 carries for 57 yards, while Josh Downs led the team with 5 catches for 84 yards. Indianapolis scored 12 points in the 4th quarter and converted 6 of 15 third downs, going 3/4 in the red zone.

Indianapolis allowed the Jets to convert on 75.9% of their passes in their most recent game, but still came out with a 28-27 win. The Colts’ defense gave up 162 passing yards, with New York finishing with a completion percentage of 75.9%. The Colts’ run defense allowed 91 yards on 20 attempts (4.6 yards per attempt) and gave up two passing touchdowns. On 3rd downs, the Jets converted 30.8% of their chances.

Indianapolis’ defense did come up with three sacks in the game and didn’t lose the QB hit differential, but they did lose the tackles for loss differential by -1. The Colts will be looking to improve their pass defense in the coming weeks after allowing the Jets to have a good amount of success through the air.

With the point spread sitting at 7.5 in favor of the Colts, we are going against the spread and taking the Lions to cover as our best bet. Our projected final score is 31-22 in favor of the Lions, making them our pick to pull off the upset.

For the over/under, we like this game to go over, with a projected combined score of 53 points. The current O/U line is 51 points, giving us a nice cushion with our over pick.

Lions Speed into Indianapolis with Win Streak at 8

Shane Steichen and the Indianapolis Colts face the daunting task of stopping the red-hot Detroit Lions, who visit Indiana on Sunday riding an eight-game winning streak—their longest since their first season in Detroit in 1934. The Lions (9-1) have been dominant, coming off a 52-6 dismantling of Jacksonville in which they scored touchdowns on their first seven possessions.

“They’re tough on all three phases, and it shows,” Steichen said. “All those guys are flying around, making plays. They’re having fun doing it.”

Lions’ High-Octane Offense

Detroit leads the NFL in points scored (33.6 per game) and point differential (plus-159) this season. Jared Goff orchestrated the offense to near perfection last week, throwing for 412 yards and four touchdowns, rebounding from a rare five-interception outing in Houston.

Amon-Ra St. Brown continued his stellar season, catching 11 passes for 161 yards and two touchdowns. He has now scored a receiving touchdown in eight consecutive games. Meanwhile, the Lions’ rushing attack is powered by the formidable duo of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, who have combined for nearly 1,400 yards and 18 touchdowns on the ground.

Montgomery, a physical runner, has 10 rushing touchdowns this season, including two against Jacksonville.

“He’s a throwback,” Lions head coach Dan Campbell said of Montgomery. “He’s downhill, doesn’t give up, continues to churn his legs—violent, never give up, never going down.”

Gibbs, with his lightning-quick speed, is averaging 6.0 yards per carry and has eight rushing touchdowns, complementing Montgomery’s power.

“To me, they’re the perfect combination,” Campbell added.

Colts’ Challenges on Offense

The Colts (5-6) have struggled to keep pace with high-scoring teams, averaging just 21.5 points per game and hitting the 30-point mark only once this season. Indianapolis is coming off a narrow 28-27 victory over the New York Jets, a game that saw the return of quarterback Anthony Richardson.

Richardson passed for a touchdown and ran for two more, including the game-winning score with 46 seconds remaining. Despite his encouraging performance, Richardson’s ball security remains a concern; he has fumbled eight times this season, losing three.

“Very encouraged,” Steichen said of Richardson’s outing. “We’ve got some momentum now, and the confidence that comes with winning a two-minute drive on the road. We need to carry that into this week.”

Tough Test Ahead

The Colts will have to find a way to slow down Detroit’s record-setting offense, which set a franchise mark with 232 points scored over its last six games. Receiver Michael Pittman acknowledged the challenge.

“Their offense is super-powered, so we’re going to have to do our part, and we’re excited for it,” Pittman said.

Complicating matters for Detroit, linebacker Alex Anzalone sustained a broken forearm last Sunday and was placed on injured reserve. Tight end Sam LaPorta, who missed the game against Jacksonville with a shoulder injury, was a full participant in Wednesday’s walkthrough and could return this week.

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The Colts listed offensive tackle Bernhard Raimann (knee) as their only non-participant in Wednesday’s walkthrough.

Richardson’s Outlook

Richardson remains optimistic heading into the challenging matchup.

“Just seeing the toughness from our team. We’re definitely trying to carry that over because we know we’re getting ready to play a physical team,” Richardson said. “So, they’re going to bring it to us. We got to bring it to them. But just trusting my guys each and every play … I feel like I’m a decent football player, and I like to make plays out there.”

The Colts will need Richardson’s confidence and execution to match the Lions’ high-powered offense if they hope to pull off the upset.