Washington Commanders vs Cleveland Browns Picks and Predictions October 6th 2024

The Commanders are favored at -177 on the money line as they host the Browns at 1:00 ET on Sunday, October 6th at Northwest Stadium in Landover, MD. The Browns are +148 on the money line and +3.5 on the point spread. FOX is covering this week five non-conference matchup, with the over/under line set at 44.5 points.

Cleveland vs. Washington Key Information

• Teams: Browns at Commanders
• Where: Northwest Stadium Landover
• Date: Sunday, October 6th
• Betting Odds WAS -177 | CLE +148 O/U 44.5

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The Browns Can Win If…

Deshaun Watson’s touchdown passes to Elijah Moore and Blake Whiteheart put the Browns up 10-0 after the 1st quarter in their recent game against the Raiders. However, Cleveland ended up losing 20-16, dropping their record to 1-3 for the season. The Browns were favored by -2.5 but lost straight-up and against the spread.

The Browns didn’t score after the 1st quarter until the 4th quarter when Zamir White rushed for a 4-yard loss, and with no time left, Cleveland scored again, but it wasn’t enough to overcome the Raiders. The over/under line for the game was 37, and the teams combined for 36 points.

Deshaun Watson completed 24 of 32 passes for 176 yards and one touchdown in the Browns’ 20-16 loss to the Raiders. Watson also threw one interception and was sacked three times. Cleveland’s offense managed just 149 yards passing, averaging only 4.7 yards per attempt.

The Browns struggled to establish the run, finishing with only 92 yards on 22 attempts. Jerome Ford led the team with 58 yards on 10 carries, including a 35-yard run. Jerry Jeudy was the top receiver with 72 yards on six catches.

The Browns’ defense played well in the passing game in their 20-16 loss to the Raiders, holding them to just 116 yards through the air. They allowed only 14 completions and limited Las Vegas to a 58.3% completion rate. Additionally, the Browns’ defense was strong on third down, allowing the Raiders to convert just 33.3% of their third-down opportunities.

However, Cleveland struggled to stop the run, giving up 152 rushing yards on 29 attempts. Despite their strong pass defense, the Browns were unable to come out with a win, as the Raiders were able to put up 20 points with a good balance of run and pass.

• Over their last three regular season games, the Browns have gone 1-2 straight up. In these contests, the team went just 1-2 against the spread, while going 0-3 on the over-under.
• Over their last ten regular season games, the Browns have gone 5-5 straight up. Across these games, their ATS record was just 5-5, while posting an over-under record of 6-4.

The Commanders Can Win If…

Washington is now 3-1 after a 42-14 win over the Cardinals. Heading into the game, they were +3.5 point underdogs, giving them both a straight-up and ATS win. The game went over the total line of 48.5, with a combined score of 56. The Commanders dominated the 4th quarter, outscoring the Cardinals 15-0.

After a 7-7 1st quarter, Washington took control, scoring 10 unanswered points in the 2nd quarter. Jayden Daniels had two touchdown passes in the 4th quarter, one to Terry McLaurin and the other to Olamide Zaccheaus. The Commanders also got a big game from Jeremy McNichols, who had a touchdown run in the 2nd quarter.

The Commanders’ offense was efficient in their 42-14 win over the Cardinals, picking up 29 first downs and 216 yards on the ground on 37 attempts. Jayden Daniels, making his first start at quarterback, completed 86% of his passes for 233 yards, with one touchdown and one interception. He also ran for 47 yards and a touchdown.

Brian Robinson Jr. added 101 rushing yards on 21 carries, including a touchdown and Olamide Zaccheaus led the team in receiving with 85 yards on six catches. Washington was successful on 75% of their third down attempts and didn’t allow a sack in the game.

In their most recent game, the Washington Commanders’ defense gave up 181 rushing yards on 32 attempts but still came out on top, beating the Cardinals 42-14. They allowed just 115 passing yards on 16 completions, with one touchdown and a 72.7% completion rate against them. The Commanders’ defense also recorded four sacks and held Arizona to a 36.4% third-down conversion rate.

Washington’s defense was effective in generating pressure, as they won the quarterback hit differential and had two more tackles for loss than the Cardinals. Despite giving up 296 total yards, the Commanders’ defense limited Arizona to just 14 points in the lopsided victory.

• Over their last three regular season games, the Commanders have gone 1-2 straight up. Across these games, their ATS record was just 1-2, while posting an over-under record of 1-2.
• Across Washington’s last ten regular season games, their record sits at 3-7. Across these games, their ATS record was just 2-7-1, while posting an over-under record of 5-5.

Commanders’ Jayden Daniels Out to Continue Historic Start vs. Browns

The Washington Commanders are off to a blazing start this season, largely driven by the incredible performances of their rookie quarterback, Jayden Daniels. The Commanders (3-1) aim to extend their winning streak to four games as they host the Cleveland Browns (1-3) in a Week 5 matchup in Landover, Maryland, this Sunday. Daniels, a Heisman Trophy winner and the second overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, has not only met but exceeded expectations, putting up historic numbers in his first four games. The young quarterback is looking to continue his impressive run against a struggling Cleveland team that has yet to find its rhythm.

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Jayden Daniels’ Historic Start

Comparisons are already being made between Jayden Daniels and Robert Griffin III, who had a memorable rookie season in Washington back in 2012, leading the Commanders to the playoffs and earning Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. However, Daniels’ early success has already surpassed even Griffin’s high bar, leading the Commanders to their best four-game start since 2011. Whereas Griffin’s Commanders began his rookie campaign at 2-2, Daniels has propelled his team to a 3-1 record, winning three straight after a season-opening loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Despite his rapid success, Daniels remains humble about his journey in the NFL. “I didn’t have any expectations,” Daniels said about his early season performance. “For me personally, how much can I learn and keep going? How fast can I learn to become a pro and keep going from there.” This focus on continuous improvement is evident not just in the numbers but also in the demeanor he brings to the field.

League-Leading Efficiency

Daniels has been nothing short of remarkable through his first four games, boasting an 82.1% completion rate—the best in the league and the highest ever recorded over a four-game stretch for a quarterback with at least 50 passing attempts. His accuracy has been crucial in driving Washington’s potent offense, which is currently averaging 30.3 points per game, the third-highest in the NFL.

Although Daniels has only thrown for three touchdowns, he has made a significant impact on the ground, rushing for four more scores, making him a dual-threat capable of hurting defenses in multiple ways. Perhaps most impressively, Daniels has led more scoring drives (23) than he has thrown incompletions (19). His poise under pressure has minimized turnovers, throwing just one interception in 106 pass attempts, which occurred last week in the Commanders’ 42-14 rout of the Arizona Cardinals.

Washington’s head coach, Dan Quinn, praised Daniels not only for his on-field performance but also for his dedication during practice. “If you’re around him, you feel this work ethic,” Quinn said. “There’s no magic pixie dust that we’re throwing into him. It is absolutely grinding, working, and a lot of confidence comes from that.” The rookie quarterback’s commitment to his craft is evident, and it’s one of the reasons why the Commanders have thrived offensively under his leadership.

Cleveland Browns: Struggles and Opportunities for Improvement

The Cleveland Browns have struggled to find their footing this season, averaging just 16.5 points per game—the sixth-fewest in the league—and have had trouble maintaining consistency on offense. Wide receiver Jerry Jeudy, who joined the team after spending his first four seasons with the Denver Broncos, admitted that the Browns’ offense has yet to gel. “Collectively, as a unit, we just all have to be on the same page at the same time. That’s the biggest thing, for real,” Jeudy said. “Because as an offense, as a group, if one person messed up, the whole play is messed up.”

Last week, the Browns started promisingly against the Las Vegas Raiders, scoring on their first two drives to take an early 10-0 lead. However, they failed to maintain that momentum and ultimately lost the game. Their only other points came from a defensive touchdown by Rodney McLeod Jr., who returned a fumble for a score in the fourth quarter.

Head coach Kevin Stefanski emphasized focusing on the “little things” to achieve consistency. “Little things do become the big thing,” Stefanski said. “We’ve talked about that a lot. So, we focus, in this building, on things that we can control, things that we can get better at. And I think that’s the mindset, that sort of winning mindset, that we have where we’re going to get together and find a way to fix it.”

Potential Boost from Nick Chubb’s Return

The Browns’ struggling offense could receive a significant boost if star running back Nick Chubb is able to return to action soon. Chubb practiced for the first time on Wednesday since sustaining a season-ending knee injury in Week 2 of last season. Although he was a limited participant, his return to practice is a positive sign for Cleveland. Chubb, who rushed for over 1,000 yards in each of the last four seasons, could provide a much-needed spark for a Browns offense that has failed to find its rhythm.

Cleveland also faces concerns on the defensive side. Defensive end Myles Garrett, one of the league’s premier pass rushers, did not practice due to an Achilles injury, and linebacker Jordan Hicks was sidelined with multiple ailments (ribs, elbow, triceps). Tight end David Njoku (ankle) and running back Pierre Strong (hamstring) were also limited in practice, adding to the Browns’ injury woes.

Washington’s Injury Concerns

The Commanders have their own injury challenges, with four players missing practice on Wednesday. Star running back Brian Robinson Jr. is nursing a knee injury, and his absence would be a major blow for Washington, which has relied on his physical running style to complement Daniels’ dynamic play. Fellow running back Austin Ekeler was also limited due to a concussion, raising concerns about Washington’s depth in the backfield.

Injury Report: Commanders Report - Browns Report

Key Matchups to Watch

1. Jayden Daniels vs. Browns’ Defense

Daniels has demonstrated an elite level of efficiency through his first four games, and he will face a Browns defense that has been inconsistent. With Myles Garrett’s status in question, Cleveland’s ability to generate pressure on Daniels could be limited, giving the rookie an opportunity to continue his historic start. If Daniels is given time in the pocket, his high completion percentage and decision-making skills will make it difficult for Cleveland to slow Washington’s offense.

2. Nick Chubb’s Impact (If Available)

If Nick Chubb is able to return, he will be the focal point of the Browns’ offensive game plan. Chubb’s ability to dominate on the ground could help Cleveland control the clock and keep Daniels off the field. Even if Chubb is limited, his presence alone could force the Commanders’ defense to respect the run game more, opening opportunities for play-action passes.

3. Commanders’ Pass Protection vs. Browns’ Pass Rush

With Myles Garrett potentially sidelined, Washington’s offensive line could have an easier time protecting Daniels. If Garrett cannot play, it will be crucial for other members of the Browns’ defensive front to step up and apply pressure. The Commanders have relied on Daniels’ quick release and accuracy to keep drives alive, and without pressure, he could pick apart the Cleveland secondary.

Game Outlook and Prediction

The Washington Commanders come into this matchup as the clear favorites, largely due to the impressive start of their rookie quarterback, Jayden Daniels. The Commanders’ offense has been firing on all cylinders, and Daniels’ efficiency has been instrumental in their success. Cleveland’s struggles on both offense and defense make this a tough matchup for them, especially if Myles Garrett and Nick Chubb are unable to play significant roles.

For the Browns, the key to staying competitive will be establishing the run game—whether with Nick Chubb or through a committee approach—and finding consistency in the passing game. Jerry Jeudy and the rest of the receiving corps must get on the same page with quarterback Deshaun Watson to have any hope of keeping up with Washington’s high-powered offense.

Ultimately, the combination of Daniels’ accuracy, the Commanders’ offensive firepower, and Cleveland’s ongoing issues suggests that Washington will have the upper hand. Expect the Commanders to control the pace of the game, utilize Daniels’ quick decision-making, and extend their winning streak to four games with a comfortable victory over the Browns.

The Lean

With the line sitting at 44.5 points, we really like the over for this week five matchup between the Browns and Commanders. Our projections have this game finishing with 51 combined points, making the over a great value play.

As for a point-spread pick, we are leaning towards taking the Browns to cover as road underdogs. Our final score prediction is 29-22 in favor of the Browns, and with Washington sitting at -3.5 point favorites, we like the Browns to cover and win vs. the spread.