Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Picks and Predictions December 22nd 2024

Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers December 22nd 2024

The Buccaneers, who are favored on the road with a money line of -207, will face the Cowboys at 8:20 ET on Sunday, December 22nd. The Cowboys are +172 on the money line, and the game is being televised on NBC. Tampa Bay is favored by -4 points, and the over/under line is set at 49.5 points. The Buccaneers and Cowboys both need to add their records to this one, which is a week 16 NFC matchup.

Tampa Bay vs. Dallas Key Information

With four consecutive wins, the Buccaneers now sit atop the NFC South with an 8-6 record, giving them a 79.7% chance of winning the division and an 81.8% chance of making the playoffs. Tampa Bay is 5-2 on the road this season, including a 40-17 victory over the Chargers in week 15. They were 3-point underdogs in that game but covered the spread easily, bringing their ATS record to 9-5.

Heading into week 16, the O/U record for Bucs games is 9-5, with their matchups averaging 52.1 points per game. The average line in those games has been 45.4. Tampa Bay ranks 8th in our NFL power rankings this week.

Heading into week 16, the Buccaneers are 3rd in the NFL in yards per game (388.4) and 4th in points per game (28.8). They have been strong on 3rd down, converting 48.3% of their attempts, which ranks 3rd in the league. However, they have struggled in the red zone, ranking 28th in conversion percentage. Tampa Bay has been quick starters, leading the NFL in 1st-quarter scoring.

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In week 15, Baker Mayfield threw for 288 yards and 4 touchdowns, with one interception, against the Chargers. Mike Evans had 9 catches for 159 yards and 2 touchdowns, while Bucky Irving rushed for 117 yards on 15 carries. The Bucs scored 17 points in the 3rd quarter and converted 9 of 15 3rd-down attempts.

The Buccaneers’ defense played a big role in their 40-17 win over the Chargers, holding them to just 32 yards rushing on 11 attempts. Despite giving up two passing touchdowns, Tampa Bay allowed only 174 yards through the air and limited the Chargers to a 64.7% completion rate. Their performance on third downs was excellent, as the Chargers failed to convert on any of their attempts.

On the defensive front, Tampa Bay recorded three sacks and came away with one interception. They also held the Chargers to just 2.9 yards per attempt in the running game and finished with eight more quarterback hits than their opponents.

After snapping a two-game losing streak with a 30-14 win over the Panthers in week 15, the Cowboys now sit at 6-8. The victory improved their road record to 5-2, but they are just 1-6 at home. Dallas is 3-1 in the NFC East, but their 6-8 record has them in 3rd place in the division. They are 12th in the NFC.

Heading into week 16, the Cowboys have a 0.1% chance of making the playoffs and are 29th in our NFL power rankings. Dallas has a -5.9 scoring margin this season and is 5-9 against the spread. Their O/U record is 9-5, with their games averaging 48.4 points per game.

Heading into week 16, the Cowboys rank 25th in our offensive power rankings. They are 16th in the NFL in both points per game (21.3) and yards per game (328.9). Dallas has leaned heavily on the passing game, ranking 2nd in the league in passing attempts, with Cooper Rush throwing for 214 yards and 3 touchdowns in week 15. On the ground, they rank 25th in rushing yards per game, but Rico Dowdle has been productive, rushing for 149 yards on 25 carries in week 15.

Dallas ranks 23rd in the NFL in 3rd-down conversions, with a 36.3% success rate, but they converted 50% of their attempts in week 15. In the red zone, they rank 15th in attempts but are 7th in conversion percentage. CeeDee Lamb led the team with 9 catches for 116 yards and a touchdown in week 15.

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The Cowboys’ defense was tough to move the ball against in their most recent game, as they allowed just 235 total yards to the Panthers. They also came away with two interceptions and six sacks, while holding Carolina to a 27.3% conversion rate on third down. Despite giving up 175 passing yards, Dallas defended the run well, allowing just 60 yards on 16 attempts.

Carolina managed just 14 points in their 30-14 win, with one of their touchdowns coming through the air. Dallas’ defense also forced two turnovers and limited the Panthers to a 67.9% completion percentage on their passes.

Our projections have this week 16 matchup between the Buccaneers and Cowboys finishing with 46 combined points, which is below the O/U line of 49.5. With this in mind, we’d recommend taking the under for this game.

As for a point-spread pick, we have the Cowboys falling to the Buccaneers by a score of 24-22. Even though the Cowboys are the home team in this one, our pick vs. the spread is to take the Cowboys to cover as 4-point home underdogs.

Cowboys Eye Baker Mayfield as Bucs Aim to Secure Playoff Berth

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are riding high on a four-game win streak and aiming to lock in their playoff position as they host the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday. For the Cowboys, a win is critical to keep their faint postseason hopes alive.

Buccaneers in the Driver’s Seat

At 8-6, the Buccaneers lead the NFC South and currently hold the NFC’s third seed, thanks to Seattle’s recent stumble against Green Bay. Tampa Bay’s offensive dominance has been a key factor in their rise, as they lead the league with eight games of 400-plus total yards.

In their most recent game, the Bucs shredded the Los Angeles Chargers—previously the NFL’s top scoring defense—with a 40-17 victory. Baker Mayfield earned NFC Offensive Player of the Week honors after an exceptional performance, completing 22 of 27 passes for 288 yards, four touchdowns, and a stellar 135.3 passer rating.

“It’s really attention to detail,” Tampa Bay coach Todd Bowles said. “The chemistry and execution between Baker and the rest of the offense have been very good.”

Mayfield’s numbers this season rank among the league’s best: third in passing touchdowns (32), fourth in total touchdowns (35) and passing yards (3,617), and sixth in passer rating (104.1).

Cowboys’ Defensive Challenges

Dallas enters the game at 6-8, holding onto a 1 percent chance of making the playoffs according to NFL.com’s playoff predictor. Their recent wins have come against bottom-dwelling teams Carolina and the New York Giants.

The Cowboys’ defense faces a tough task in slowing down Tampa Bay’s high-powered offense. With a depleted secondary and a minus-82 point differential on the season, Dallas will rely heavily on pass rusher Micah Parsons, who has 8.5 sacks this year, including 5.5 in the last four games.

“We’ve got to put pressure on Baker,” Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy said. “It’s critical to help our defense, especially with the injuries we’re managing.”

However, Tampa Bay’s offensive line, anchored by top-ranked pass blocker Tristan Wirfs, allowed just one sack in last week’s dominant win.

Injury Concerns

Tampa Bay has its own injury list to monitor, with key players like safety Mike Edwards (hamstring) and tackle Tristan Wirfs (foot/knee) listed as questionable. Meanwhile, Dallas is missing defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence, out since Week 4, and will be without cornerback Trevon Diggs (knee), who could miss the 2025 season opener. Wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (shoulder) was limited in practice but is expected to play.

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What’s at Stake

The Buccaneers can strengthen their playoff position with a win, maintaining their lead in the NFC South over the Atlanta Falcons. Meanwhile, the Cowboys need a near-perfect finish and plenty of help elsewhere to keep their slim postseason hopes alive.

With Tampa Bay’s surging offense and Dallas’ defensive vulnerabilities, the matchup could come down to whether the Cowboys can contain Baker Mayfield and his arsenal of weapons, led by Mike Evans.