Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders Picks and Predictions January 5th 2025

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders January 5th 2025

The Cowboys are the underdog with a point spread of +4.5 as they take on Washington on Sunday, January 5th at 1:00 ET on FOX. The money line odds have Washington -227 and Dallas +185. The over/under line is set at 44 points for this week 18 matchup. The Cowboys are the home team, and this NFC East battle is being played at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX.

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Washington vs. Dallas Key Information

Washington’s 30-24 win over the Falcons in week 17 marked their fourth straight victory, bringing their record to 11-5. This streak includes a 3-point win over the Eagles in week 16 and a 1-point win over the Saints in week 15. The Commanders bounced back from three straight losses in weeks 10-12, including a 34-26 loss to the Cowboys. They’ll have a chance to avenge that loss when they face Dallas on the road in week 18.

With a playoff spot locked up, Washington has a 100% chance of making the postseason, but they can’t win the NFC East. The Commanders rank 9th in our NFL power rankings and have an average scoring margin of +5.6 points per game. They are 10-5-1 against the spread this season, including two straight ATS wins.

Jayden Daniels has thrown for 227 yards in week 17, 258 yards in week 16, and 226 yards in week 15. In week 17, he completed 24 of 36 passes, with 3 touchdowns and 1 interception, after his 5-touchdown performance in week 16. Daniels has been sacked 5 times in week 17, following 1 sack in week 16 and 8 in week 15. Against the Falcons, he also rushed for 127 yards on 16 carries.

Olamide Zaccheaus led the Commanders with 8 catches for 85 yards and a touchdown in week 17. He had 5 catches for 70 yards and 2 touchdowns in week 16. Terry McLaurin had 7 catches for 73 yards and 2 touchdowns in week 15. Washington ranks 6th in our offensive power rankings, averaging 28.9 points per game, which is 5th in the NFL.

In their 30-24 overtime win over the Falcons, the Commanders’ defense allowed just 211 passing yards and held Atlanta to a 54.3% completion rate. They defended 20% of Atlanta’s third down attempts and came up with one interception. However, Washington did struggle against the run, giving up 126 yards on just 23 attempts.

Washington’s defense also recorded two sacks in the game, and although they allowed 337 total yards, their ability to limit the Falcons in key situations helped them come out with the win.

Heading into week 18, the Cowboys sit 28th in our power rankings and have no chance of making the playoffs. Dallas is 7-9 on the season, including a 5-3 record on the road and a 2-6 record at home. In division play, they are 3-2, which puts them 3rd in the NFC East.

Against the spread, the Cowboys are 6-10, with an average scoring margin of -7.1 points per game. Their O/U record is 11-5, with the over hitting in three straight games. Dallas’ games have averaged 48.5 points, compared to an average line of 45.2.

Heading into week 18, the Cowboys rank 26th in our offensive power rankings. They are 20th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 20.7, and 19th in yards per game, with 324.3. Dallas has been pass-heavy, ranking 3rd in passing attempts per game, leading to 227.1 passing yards per game (11th). On the ground, they rank 21st in rushing attempts and 27th in rushing yards per game, with 97.2.

Cooper Rush struggled in week 17, posting a passer rating of 50, with 147 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. Rico Dowdle rushed for 104 yards on 23 carries, and Brandin Cooks had 4 catches for 52 yards. Dallas scored all 7 of their points in the 1st quarter against the Eagles, failing to score in the final three quarters.

In their 41-7 loss to the Eagles, the Cowboys’ defense allowed 197 passing yards on just 13 completions, but three of those completions went for touchdowns. The Cowboys struggled to generate any pressure, as they did not record a sack and had a negative quarterback hit differential. Philadelphia also found success on the ground, rushing for 179 yards on 42 attempts.

Dallas’ defense had a tough time getting off the field, as the Eagles converted on 46.2% of their third down attempts. Although the Cowboys’ offense struggled, the defense allowed 10.4 yards per attempt in the passing game.

For this week 18 matchup between the Cowboys and Commanders, we have the Cowboys coming out on top by a score of 27-23. With the point spread sitting at 4.5 points in favor of the Commanders, we like the Cowboys to not only win but cover the spread as home underdogs.

As for an over/under pick, we are leaning towards taking the over, with a projected combined score of 50 points and the O/U line sitting at just 44 points.

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Commanders Look to Keep Rolling Against Cowboys in Season Finale

The Washington Commanders are in the midst of their best season since 1991 and are aiming to carry their momentum into the playoffs. They’ll close out the regular season against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday in Arlington, Texas, with seeding implications on the line.

Commanders Eye Fifth Straight Win

Washington (11-5) is on a four-game winning streak and can clinch the NFC’s No. 6 seed with a victory. A win would also mark just the fourth time in franchise history the Commanders have won 12 or more games in a season.

Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, the No. 2 overall pick, has been the driving force behind the Commanders’ resurgence. Daniels has passed for 3,530 yards, 25 touchdowns, and nine interceptions while adding 864 rushing yards and six scores. His poise and playmaking ability have energized a franchise that hadn’t experienced a winning season since 2016.

“He’s the most mature rookie I’ve ever been around,” said tight end Zach Ertz, a key veteran presence on offense. “He’s not a rah-rah guy. We all know how good he is and how much confidence we have in him.”

Defensive Leaders Bolster Commanders

On defense, linebacker Bobby Wagner has anchored a unit that has grown stronger as the season progressed. Wagner leads the team with 124 tackles and has provided invaluable leadership.
“When you get a lot of guys confident and believing in one another, it makes the team scary,” Wagner said.

However, Washington will need to overcome injuries to key players, including offensive linemen Tyler Biadasz (ankle), Andrew Wylie (groin), and Cornelius Lucas (groin), all of whom missed Wednesday’s practice.

Cowboys Navigate Uncertainty

For Dallas (7-9), this game marks the end of a tumultuous season. Head coach Mike McCarthy faces questions about his future, as his contract is set to expire. Despite a 49-34 record over five seasons, injuries to quarterback Dak Prescott in two separate campaigns have hampered the team’s success.

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With Prescott sidelined this year due to a hamstring injury, backup Cooper Rush has gone 4-4 as the starter. McCarthy has hinted at potentially giving snaps to Trey Lance or Will Grier, adding intrigue to the Cowboys’ quarterback situation for the finale.

Recent History and Stakes

The Cowboys handed Washington its last loss in Week 12 with a 34-26 victory in the nation’s capital. Dallas has won three straight meetings and six of the last seven.

The Commanders, however, are a much different team since that loss, riding their momentum into this high-stakes matchup. While Washington is focused on securing playoff seeding, Dallas will aim to play spoiler and finish its season on a high note.

Prediction

The Commanders’ strong form and the emergence of Daniels give them the edge in this game, especially against a Cowboys team dealing with uncertainty and change. Expect Washington to stay focused and secure a critical win.