Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs Picks and Predictions January 5th 2025

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs January 5th 2025

The Chiefs and Broncos will face off on Sunday, January 5th at 4:25 ET on CBS. The Broncos are heavily favored with a money line of -578, and the point spread is -10.5 in their favor. The over/under line is set at 39.5 points. This week 18 matchup is being played at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, CO.

Kansas City vs. Denver Key Information

• Teams: Chiefs at Broncos
• Where: Empower Field at Mile High Denver
• Date: Sunday, January 5th
• Betting Odds DEN -578 | KC +412 O/U 39.5

The Chiefs Can Win If…

The Chiefs have won six straight games, improving their record to 15-1 and securing the top spot in the AFC. After a narrow two-point win over the Chargers in week 14, Kansas City bounced back with a 21-7 victory over the Browns in week 15, followed by a 27-19 win over the Texans in week 16. In week 17, they easily handled the Steelers, winning 29-10. The Chiefs were 1.5-point favorites in that game and covered the spread, giving them three straight ATS victories.

Heading into week 18, the Chiefs rank 20th in our NFL power rankings despite having a +6.1 scoring margin. They are 7-8-1 against the spread this season and have a 7-9 O/U record, with their games averaging 42.1 points. Kansas City has already clinched the AFC West and a playoff spot, with both projections at 100%.

Heading into week 18, the Chiefs rank 9th in our offensive power rankings. They are 11th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 24.1 points per game, and 13th in total yards, with 342 per game. Kansas City ranks 10th in passing yards, with 231.8 per game, on 36.4 attempts per game, which ranks 5th. On the ground, they are 16th in rushing yards, averaging 110.2 per game on 27.4 attempts.

The Chiefs have been excellent on 3rd down, leading the NFL with a 50% conversion rate. They rank 4th in red zone attempts but have struggled to convert, ranking 24th with a 12.3% conversion rate. In week 17, they scored 29 points against the Steelers, with Patrick Mahomes throwing for 320 yards and 3 touchdowns, without an interception. Kansas City scored 13 points in both the 1st and 4th quarters in that game.

In the Chiefs’ 29-10 win over the Steelers, their defense allowed just 162 passing yards on 23 completions. However, they struggled to stop the run, giving up 202 rushing yards on 31 attempts. Despite this, the Chiefs didn’t allow a single touchdown through the air and came away with five sacks and one interception.

Even though they gave up 202 rushing yards, the Chiefs’ defense really limited Pittsburgh’s big-play ability, as they averaged just 4.4 yards per attempt. Additionally, they held the Steelers to a 50% third-down conversion rate and didn’t allow any explosive plays in the passing game.

• Through their last three games, the Chiefs have a record of 3-0. Against the spread, the team is 3-0 in these same games while going 1-2 on the over/under.
• Over their last ten regular season games, the Chiefs have gone 9-1 straight up. Against the spread, Kansas City went 3-7 in these games and finished with an over-under mark of 5-5.

The Broncos Can Win If…

Heading into week 18, the Broncos are looking to snap a two-game losing streak, which includes a 30-24 loss to the Bengals in week 17. This dropped Denver to 9-7, putting them 7th in the AFC and 18th in our power rankings. They have a 64.5% chance of making the playoffs, but their division hopes are gone, as they sit 3rd in the AFC West with a 2-3 record.

Denver is 11-5 against the spread, but they have failed to cover in two straight games. They are 7-0 ATS as favorites and 4-5 as underdogs. Their O/U record is 11-5, with the over hitting in five consecutive games.

Heading into week 18, the Broncos’ offense ranks 19th in our power rankings. They are 10th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 24.2, but sit 22nd in passing yards per game with 205.6, despite ranking 11th in pass attempts. Denver is 17th in rushing yards per game, averaging 109.4, and they rank 17th in 3rd-down conversions with a 37.5% success rate.

In week 17, Bo Nix threw for 219 yards and 3 touchdowns, with 1 interception, against the Bengals. Marvin Mims Jr. led the team with 8 catches for 103 yards and 2 touchdowns, while Jaleel McLaughlin had 69 rushing yards on 10 carries. Denver scored 14 points in the 4th quarter, but fell short in their comeback attempt.

In their 30-24 overtime loss to the Bengals, the Broncos’ defense allowed 384 passing yards on 79.6% completions. Despite giving up 499 total yards, they did manage to sack the quarterback seven times and hit him more often than the Bengals did, with a +11 differential in quarterback hits.

The Broncos struggled on third downs, allowing the Bengals to convert 53.8% of their chances. Even with a good pass rush, the defense couldn’t slow down the Bengals’ passing attack, as they gave up three passing touchdowns.

• Spanning across their last three games, Denver have gone 3-0. In terms of betting, the team went 3-0 ATS in these matchups. Their over/under record in these matchups is 2-1.
• Through their last ten regular season contests, Denver has a record of 7-3. The team’s record vs the spread was just 7-3, in addition to an over-under mark of 7-3.

The Lean

Our projected score for this Chiefs vs. Broncos matchup is 29-18 in favor of the Broncos. With the point spread sitting at 10.5 points in favor of the Chiefs, we are going with the Broncos to not only cover but win straight-up. This lines up with our projections, as the Broncos are heavy 10.5-point favorites at home.

For this week 18 matchup, we also like the over as a strong play. The O/U line is just 39.5 points, but we have these teams combining for 47 points, making the over a very appealing bet.

Elusive Playoff Berth at Stake as Broncos Host Chiefs

The Denver Broncos face a high-stakes matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday, with a playoff berth on the line. For rookie quarterback Bo Nix and his team, it’s an opportunity to secure the No. 7 seed in the AFC playoffs and end Denver’s postseason drought, which dates back to their Super Bowl 50 victory during the 2015 season.

Broncos Seek First Playoff Appearance Since 2015

Denver (9-7) controls its own destiny, needing only a win to clinch the final AFC playoff spot. Nix, in his rookie season, has shown promise, passing for 3,454 yards with 25 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Despite the stakes, Nix is embracing the challenge:
“I believe pressure is a privilege, and I was taught that a long time ago,” Nix said.

The Broncos narrowly lost to the Chiefs in Week 10, falling 16-14 in Kansas City. This time, they’ll face a somewhat less formidable opponent, as the Chiefs (15-1) have already secured the AFC’s top seed and a first-round bye in the playoffs.

Chiefs Resting Key Players

With the No. 1 seed locked up, Kansas City coach Andy Reid announced that Patrick Mahomes, along with several other starters, will rest on Sunday. Veteran quarterback Carson Wentz will make his first start for the Chiefs, a rare opportunity to prove himself.

“I want to have fun, play well, and have success out there,” Wentz said. “Ultimately, more than anything, let’s get a win.”

Despite the absence of key players, the Chiefs’ depth remains a formidable challenge. Kansas City boasts the NFL’s No. 2 scoring defense, allowing just 18.0 points per game.

Denver’s Defense Ready to Shine

The Broncos will lean on their own stellar defense, ranked fifth in the league in points allowed (19.4 per game). Linebacker Nik Bonitto has been a force with 11.5 sacks, while cornerback Patrick Surtain II continues to earn accolades as one of the league’s premier defensive backs.

“Our focus has got to be on this team in general,” Denver coach Sean Payton said, emphasizing the need to remain disciplined regardless of Kansas City’s lineup changes.

Key Injuries Impact Both Teams

The Chiefs will be without several key players, including running back Isiah Pacheco (rib), defensive tackle Chris Jones (calf), and right tackle Jawaan Taylor (knee). Additionally, wide receiver Mecole Hardman is unlikely to play despite being activated for practice.

For Denver, reserve offensive lineman Frank Crum (illness) did not practice Wednesday, but the team is otherwise relatively healthy.

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What’s at Stake

While the Chiefs aim to keep their roster healthy and avoid rust during their extended playoff break, the Broncos are fighting for their postseason lives. With Nix leading the way, Denver has a chance to break its playoff drought and prove it belongs in the AFC’s competitive postseason landscape.