Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings Picks and Predictions January 5th 2025

Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings January 5th 2025

On Sunday, January 5th at 8:20 ET, the Vikings and Lions will face off at Ford Field in Detroit. The Lions are the favorite with a money line of -154, and the point spread favors them by -3 points. This week 18 NFC North matchup is being televised on NBC, with the over/under line set at 56 points.

Minnesota vs. Detroit Key Information

• Teams: Vikings at Lions
• Where: Ford Field Detroit
• Date: Sunday, January 5th
• Betting Odds DET -154 | MIN +129 O/U 56

The Vikings Can Win If…

With a 14-2 record, the Vikings have won nine straight games, including a 27-25 victory over the Packers in week 17. This streak includes a 30-12 win over the Bears in week 15 and a 27-24 win over the Seahawks in week 16. Minnesota is 6-1 on the road and 8-1 at home, and they rank 6th in our power rankings heading into week 18.

The Vikings have a +7.6 scoring margin and are 11-4-1 against the spread, covering in four straight games. Their O/U record is 7-9, with the over hitting in their last two games. Their games have averaged 45.2 points, slightly above their average line of 44.7.

Sam Darnold has been impressive over his last three games, culminating in a 377-yard performance in week 17 against the Packers, where he completed 33 of 43 passes and threw 3 touchdowns. In week 16, he had a passer rating of 112, with 246 yards and 3 touchdowns, and in week 15, he threw for 231 yards. Justin Jefferson fell just short of 100 yards in week 17, with 8 receptions for 92 yards, after a 144-yard, 2-touchdown game in week 16.

Heading into week 18, the Vikings are 10th in our offensive power rankings. They rank 9th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 26.4, and are 12th in yards per game with 352.2. Minnesota ranks 5th in passing yards per game, despite being 20th in passing attempts. They are 10th in the league in 3rd-down conversions, with a 41.2% success rate.

In their 27-25 win over the Packers, the Vikings’ defense allowed just 167 passing yards, holding Green Bay to 63.3% completions. They also recorded three sacks and held the Packers to a 57.1% third-down conversion rate. Despite this, they allowed one passing touchdown and gave up 104 rushing yards on 24 attempts.

Minnesota’s defense pressured the quarterback effectively, winning the QB hit battle by four, but they did lose the tackles for loss differential by -6.

• Minnesota will look to keep things rolling as they have put together a mark of 3-0 over their past three games. This also includes going 3-0 ATS and an over-under mark of 2-1.
• Minnesota has put together a record of 9-1 in their last ten games (regular season). In these matchups, they ended with an ATS record of 6-3-1 and an over-under mark of 5-5.

The Lions Can Win If…

With a 14-2 record, the Lions sit atop our NFL power rankings heading into week 18. Detroit bounced back from a week 15 loss to the Bills with wins over the Bears (34-17) and 49ers (40-34). Against San Francisco, they covered the 3.5-point spread, while the 74 combined points easily hit the over (50.0 line).

Detroit has a +12.5 scoring margin and is 11-4-1 against the spread. They are 10-4-1 as favorites and 1-0 as underdogs. Their O/U record is 9-6-1, with the over hitting in four straight games.

Jared Goff has been on fire, posting passer ratings of 132 in week 17, 136 in week 16, and 118 in week 15. Against the 49ers, he threw for 303 yards and 3 touchdowns without an interception. Goff has gone three straight games without a pick. Jahmyr Gibbs rushed for 117 yards on 18 carries in week 17, while Jameson Williams led the team with 5 catches for 77 yards.

Heading into week 18, the Lions rank 2nd in our offensive power rankings. They lead the NFL in scoring, averaging 33.3 points per game, and are 2nd in passing yards with 266.1 per game. Detroit also ranks 6th in rushing, with 144.4 yards per game, and they are 3rd in 3rd-down conversions, converting 47.9% of their attempts.

The Lions’ defense gave up 400 yards through the air in their 40-34 win over the 49ers, but they did come up with two interceptions. San Francisco completed 75% of their passes and averaged 10 yards per attempt. Detroit struggled to get off the field, as the 49ers converted 62.5% of their third down attempts.

On the ground, the 49ers managed just 75 yards on 18 attempts. Despite this, the Lions allowed 475 total yards in the game. Detroit’s defense recorded two sacks and had a positive quarterback hit differential, but they did lose the tackles for loss battle by -5.

• Spanning across their last three games, Detroit have gone 2-1. Across these games, they have put together an ATS mark of 0-2-1 as well as an over-under record of 2-1.
• Over their last ten regular season games, the Lions have gone 8-2 straight up. Their record vs the spread sits at 5-4-1 in these matchups, while posting a 6-4 over-under mark.

The Lean

Our pick vs. the spread is to take the Vikings to cover as road underdogs in this week 18 matchup between the Vikings and Lions. The point spread lines have the Vikings at -3, making them our pick to cover at the current lines.

As for the best way to attack the over/under lines, we are leaning towards taking the over, with a projected combined score of 64 points and the line sitting at 56 points.

Vikings, Lions to Settle No. 1 Seed in ‘Fairytale’ Showdown

Sunday night brings an epic NFC North clash between the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings, with the stakes as high as they get. The winner claims the NFC’s No. 1 playoff seed, a first-round bye, and home-field advantage throughout the postseason. The loser? A road wild-card game against one of the NFC’s tough challengers.

As Detroit (14-2) hosts Minnesota (14-2), the stage is set for a high-stakes conclusion to the regular season.

Detroit Lions: Redemption in Sight

The Lions have been one of the NFL’s most dominant teams this year, riding a 12-1 start to their season. However, recent injuries and two close losses to Tampa Bay and Buffalo have tested their resilience.

Detroit has unfinished business from last season when a blown second-half lead against San Francisco in the NFC Championship game denied the team its first Super Bowl appearance.

Key Players to Watch

• Jared Goff: The Lions’ quarterback has been stellar, passing for 4,398 yards, 36 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions.
• Amon-Ra St. Brown: Goff’s go-to receiver boasts 109 receptions, 1,186 yards, and 12 touchdowns.
• Jahmyr Gibbs: The rookie running back has impressed with 1,273 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns.

Coach Dan Campbell emphasized the importance of securing the No. 1 seed to avoid another grueling road playoff scenario. “This is fairytale stuff,” Campbell said. “It’s right there in our hands.”

Minnesota Vikings: A Season of Surprises

The Vikings’ journey has been nothing short of remarkable. Coming off a 7-10 campaign, Minnesota was considered a longshot to contend in the NFC. Yet, they’ve defied expectations behind the resurgence of quarterback Sam Darnold.

Darnold, signed as a stopgap after Kirk Cousins’ departure, has flourished. With 4,153 passing yards, 35 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions, he’s led Minnesota to nine straight wins.

Key Players to Watch

• Justin Jefferson: The star receiver has hauled in 100 passes for 1,479 yards and 10 touchdowns.
• Aaron Jones: The steady back has tallied 1,093 rushing yards and five scores.
• Sam Darnold: His leadership and poise have powered Minnesota’s offense through adversity.

Coach Kevin O’Connell credited Darnold for stepping up: “Only the player is responsible for getting himself to where Sam has gotten himself to.”

Key Matchups

Lions Offense vs. Vikings Defense

Detroit’s Ben Johnson-led offense has been electric all year, but Brian Flores’ aggressive Minnesota defense will aim to disrupt Goff’s rhythm.

Vikings Passing Game vs. Lions Secondary

Darnold and Jefferson have been nearly unstoppable. Detroit’s defense must find a way to contain the dynamic duo.

Don’t miss out—explore NFL Week 18 Odds & Predictions for expert picks and analysis!

Game One Recap: A Nail-Biter

In Week 7, the Lions edged the Vikings 31-29 in Minneapolis. Goff threw for two touchdowns while Gibbs added two rushing scores. The rematch promises to deliver just as much drama.