Detroit Lions vs Washington Commanders January 18th 2025

The Lions are heavily favored in their NFC matchup against the Commanders, with their money line odds at -543 compared to Washington’s +407. The game, set for 8:00 ET on Saturday, January 18th at Ford Field in Detroit, is being televised on FOX. The Lions are -9.5 point favorites, and the over/under line is set at 55 points.

Washington vs. Detroit Key Information

Teams: Commanders at Lions
Where: Ford Field Detroit
Date: Saturday, January 18th
Betting Odds DET -543 | WAS +407 O/U 55

The Commanders Can Win If…

Washington finished the regular season with a 12-5 record, including a five-game winning streak before their week 1 loss to the Buccaneers. This run included a 28-point win over the Cardinals in week 4 and a 21-point victory against the Browns in week 5. They also defeated the Eagles in week 16 and the Falcons in week 17, and they ended the season with a 23-19 win over the Cowboys in week 18.

Heading into the playoffs, the Commanders ranked 10th in our power rankings. They have an average scoring margin of +5.4 points per game and are 11-6-1 against the spread. Their O/U record is 11-7, with their games averaging 51.1 points compared to a line of 46.2.

Jayden Daniels returned under center in the Wild Card round, throwing for 268 yards and 2 touchdowns on 24/35 passing, posting a passer rating of 110. He had previously thrown for 227 yards and 3 touchdowns in week 17. Dyami Brown led the team with 5 catches for 89 yards and a touchdown against the Buccaneers, while Daniels was sacked just once after taking 5 sacks in week 17.

Washington ranks 5th in our offensive power rankings, averaging 28.2 points per game. They are 6th in the NFL in 3rd-down conversions, with a 45.6% success rate, and they rank 2nd in 1st-quarter scoring. Despite being 2nd in red zone attempts, they are 28th in conversion percentage.

In Washington’s 23-20 win over the Buccaneers, their defense allowed just 183 passing yards on 15 completions, but two of those completions went for touchdowns. Tampa Bay managed just 284 total yards, and Washington defended the run well, giving up only 101 yards on 25 attempts. Opposing quarterbacks completed 83.3% of their passes against Washington in this game.

On third downs, Washington allowed the Buccaneers to convert 55.6% of their chances. They also had just one sack and lost the tackles for loss battle by a margin of -2.

Washington will look to keep things rolling as they have put together a mark of 3-0 over their past three games. In terms of betting, the team went 2-1 ATS in these matchups. Their over/under record in these matchups is 1-2.
Across Washington’s last ten regular season games, their record sits at 7-3. Across these games, their ATS record was just 5-5, while posting an over-under record of 6-4.

The Lions Can Win If…

The Lions finished the regular season at 15-2, putting them at the top of our power rankings heading into the playoffs. Detroit went 6-0 in the NFC North and 11-1 in conference play, and they are currently on a three-game winning streak. After a week 15 loss to the Bills, the Lions bounced back with wins over the Bears, 49ers, and Vikings to close out the season. In week 18, they easily handled Minnesota, winning 31-9 and covering the 3-point spread.

Detroit is 12-4-1 against the spread this season, with an average scoring margin of +13.1 points per game. They have covered in three straight games, including a 6-point win over the 49ers in week 17 as 3.5-point favorites. The Lions’ O/U record is 9-7-1, with their games averaging 53.3 points this season.

Jared Goff threw for 231 yards in Detroit’s week 18 win over the Vikings, completing 27 of 33 passes with one touchdown and two interceptions. Before that, he had back-to-back 300-yard games, with 303 yards and 3 touchdowns in week 17 and 336 yards in week 16. Jahmyr Gibbs rushed for 139 yards and 3 touchdowns on 23 carries against Minnesota, while Amon-Ra St. Brown led the team with 6 receptions for 77 yards.

Detroit’s offense leads the NFL in scoring, averaging 33.2 points per game, and ranks 2nd in yards per game with 409.5. They are 4th in the league in 3rd-down conversions, with a 47.6% success rate, and lead the NFL in red zone attempts, though they rank last in conversion percentage.

In their 31-9 win over the Vikings, the Lions’ defense was outstanding, holding Minnesota to just 142 passing yards and 43.9% completions. They were tough to move the ball against, allowing just 262 total yards. The Lions’ run defense did struggle a bit, as Minnesota averaged 6.3 yards per attempt on the ground, although they only ran the ball 19 times. Detroit’s defense was great on third downs, allowing the Vikings to convert just 23.1% of their third down attempts.

The Lions’ defense also came away with two sacks and had a positive quarterback hit differential, despite losing the tackles for loss battle. Overall, the Lions’ secondary didn’t give up any big plays, and they made things difficult for the Vikings in the passing game.

The Lions have posted a 2-1 record in their previous three games. However, they have only gone 1-1-1 vs. the spread over this stretch. Their over-under record in these three games was 2-1.
The Lions have gone 8-2 over their last ten regular season games. Against the spread, Detroit went 6-3-1 in these games and finished with an over-under mark of 6-4.

The Lean

Our model is predicting a final score of 34-28 in favor of the Lions, making them a great pick to pull off the upset in this Washington vs. Detroit matchup. With the Lions sitting at -9.5 point favorites, we are going with them to cover the spread.

For our best bet on the over/under, we like the over, with a projected combined score of 62 points and the line currently sitting at 55 points.

Lions and Commanders Face Off in High-Stakes Playoff Showdown

Get ready for a playoff battle as the Detroit Lions and Washington Commanders meet Saturday night at Ford Field. The Lions are coming off a historic season, while the Commanders are riding high after a clutch Wild Card win. With everything on the line, this matchup promises to be an all-out war.

Lions Are Making History

The Lions have been unstoppable this season, finishing with a franchise-best 15-2 record and claiming the NFC’s No. 1 seed for the first time ever. They’ve got home-field advantage and the league’s top-scoring offense, putting up a ridiculous 33.2 points per game.

“This is what we’ve been building for,” quarterback Jared Goff said. “We’ve worked hard to get here, and now we’ve got to make it count.”

Detroit’s offense is stacked. Jared Goff is slinging it like a pro, Amon-Ra St. Brown is making defenses pay every week, and running backs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery are the perfect one-two punch. Montgomery is back from injury, and his physical running style is just what the Lions need to dominate on the ground.

Commanders: The Surprise Contenders

Nobody expected the Commanders to be here, but rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels had other plans. The team went from 4-13 last season to 12-5, and Daniels has been the heart of the turnaround. He’s led five comeback wins, including last week’s Wild Card thriller against Tampa Bay, where he hit Terry McLaurin for a clutch game-tying touchdown before sealing the win with a cool-as-ice game-winning drive.

“Jayden doesn’t play like a rookie,” Lions coach Dan Campbell said. “He’s calm, confident, and makes the big plays when it matters most.”

Daniels has been described by his coach, Dan Quinn, as “a killer inside that helmet.” He’ll need every bit of that poise to take on a Lions defense that thrives on making life difficult for opposing quarterbacks.

Key Matchups

Jayden Daniels vs. Lions’ Defense:
- Detroit’s defense has been a third-down nightmare for opponents, even with injuries to key players. They’ll throw aggressive man-to-man coverage at Daniels and see if the rookie can handle the pressure.
Lions’ Dynamic Offense:
- With Montgomery back in the lineup, the Lions’ run game gets a huge boost. Add Gibbs’ breakaway speed and Amon-Ra St. Brown’s elite route-running, and Detroit’s offense is a problem for anyone.
Commanders’ Defense vs. Detroit’s Firepower:
- Washington’s linebacker Bobby Wagner, the heart of their defense, is dealing with an ankle injury. If he’s not 100%, stopping Detroit’s run game could be a tall order.

Both Teams Love Taking Risks

Both the Lions and Commanders are bold when it comes to playcalling. Detroit leads the NFL in fourth-down attempts and conversions, while Washington topped the league in fourth-down success rate. This game will likely come down to who makes the gutsiest—and smartest—calls.

What’s at Stake

Detroit is looking to reach the NFC Championship for the first time since 1991, while Washington is aiming to rewrite their playoff history and pull off another upset. With both teams bringing their A-game, this is going to be a playoff classic.

Saturday night at Ford Field is set to be a wild ride. Buckle up, football fans—this one’s going to the wire.

Detroit Lions vs Washington Commanders Picks and Predictions January 18th 2025