Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Picks and Predictions September 12th 2024

Dolphins using game vs. Bills as ‘extreme distraction’

AMZN has the coverage for this week two AFC East matchup between the Dolphins and Bills. The game is set for 8:15 ET at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL. The Dolphins are the favorite with a money line of -127 and are -1.5 point favorites. The over/under line is sitting at 48.5 points.

Buffalo vs. Miami Key Information

• Teams: Bills at Dolphins
• Where: Hard Rock Stadium Miami Gardens
• Date: Thursday, September 12th
• Betting Odds MIA -127 | BUF +106 O/U 48.5

The Bills Can Win If…

Buffalo took a 34-28 win over the Cardinals to move to 1-0 on the season. Favored by -6.5, the Bills‘ 6-point win meant they didn’t cover the spread. The combined 62 points went over the O/U line of 45.5.

Josh Allen’s 7-yard touchdown run with 25 seconds left in the 2nd quarter put Buffalo up 10-3 heading into the half. After Arizona tied it in the 3rd, Allen found Mack Hollins for a 10-yard score and later added another touchdown to Khalil Shakir in the 3rd quarter. The Bills added a late field goal in the 4th to secure the win.

In their 34-28 win over the Cardinals, the Bills’ offense picked up 23 first downs and gained 222 yards through the air. Josh Allen completed 78% of his passes for 232 yards and two touchdowns, finishing with a passer rating of 137. He also ran for 39 yards and scored two rushing touchdowns.Buffalo’s ground game saw James Cook lead the way with 71 yards on 19 carries. Overall, the Bills rushed for 130 yards. Keon Coleman was the top receiver with 51 yards on four catches. The Bills were 33.3% on third down and allowed two sacks in the game.

Buffalo’s defense was effective in their most recent game, as they picked up four sacks and held the Cardinals to just 146 passing yards on 21 completions. Despite giving up 124 rushing yards on 25 attempts, the Bills limited Arizona to just 28 points in their 34-28 victory. The Bills’ defense also allowed just one passing touchdown and held the Cardinals to a 67.7% completion percentage.

Buffalo did struggle on third downs, allowing the Cardinals to convert on 53.8% of their third down attempts. They also allowed Arizona to average 5 yards per rushing attempt. In the passing game, the Bills limited big plays, as the Cardinals averaged just 4.7 yards per attempt.

• The Bills have posted a 2-1 record in their previous three games. But, they did not perform well vs the spread in these games, going 1-2. Their over-under record in these matchups was 3-0.
• Across Buffalo’s last ten regular season games, their record sits at 8-2. Their record vs the spread sits at 5-5 in these matchups, while posting a 6-4 over-under mark.

The Dolphins Can Win If…

The Dolphins came back from a 17-7 deficit at halftime to beat the Jaguars 20-17 and start the season 1-0. Miami was favored by -3.5 and the 3-point win meant they didn’t cover the spread. The combined 37 points was lower than the over/under line of 49.5 points.Miami fell behind early when the Jaguars scored to make it 7-0 in the first quarter. The Dolphins then allowed another touchdown in the 2nd quarter before finally getting on the board with a touchdown from De’Von Achane with just over a minute left in the 2nd quarter. Miami then opened the 3rd quarter with an 80-yard touchdown from Tua Tagovailoa to Tyreek Hill. In the 4th, Jason Sanders put the Dolphins ahead for good with a 37-yard field goal with 4:26 remaining.

The Dolphins’ offense picked up 18 first downs in their 20-17 win over the Jaguars, with Tua Tagovailoa throwing for 338 yards and completing 62% of his passes. Miami’s running game struggled, managing only 81 yards on 25 attempts. Tagovailoa was sacked three times and threw one touchdown.

Tyreek Hill was the top receiver in the game, finishing with 130 yards and a touchdown, with an 80-yard reception. The Dolphins were 50% on third down in the game.

The Dolphins’ defense held the Jaguars to just 139 passing yards on 12 completions in their most recent game, with Jacksonville converting only 20% of their third down attempts. Despite this, Miami allowed 128 rushing yards on 26 attempts, giving up 4.9 yards per attempt in the running game. They also allowed one rushing touchdown.

Miami’s defense recorded three sacks in the game and limited Jacksonville to 267 total yards. The Dolphins did well against the pass, holding the Jaguars to a 57.1% completion rate and allowing just one passing touchdown.

• Over their last three games, the Dolphins have gone 2-1 straight up. But, they did not perform well vs the spread in these games, going 1-2. Their over-under record in these matchups was 0-3.
• The Dolphins have gone 8-2 over their last ten regular season games. The team’s record vs the spread was just 6-4, in addition to an over-under mark of 4-6.

The Lean

Our pick vs. the spread is to take the Bills to cover as 1.5-point road underdogs in this week two matchup between the Bills and Dolphins. We have the Bills winning by a score of 25-18, making them a good bet to cover.

For the over/under, we like taking the under, with a projected combined score of 43 points and the O/U line sitting at 48.5 points.

The Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills, both coming off come-from-behind victories in Week 1, are preparing to clash in Week 2 of the NFL season on Thursday in Miami Gardens, Fla. However, for the Dolphins (1-0), the build-up to this highly anticipated AFC East matchup comes with emotional baggage after an incident involving star receiver Tyreek Hill and Miami-Dade police just hours before their season opener.

Tyreek Hill’s Controversial Traffic Stop

On the eve of their Week 1 game, Tyreek Hill was detained by Miami-Dade police in a heated traffic stop that escalated after Hill failed to comply immediately with instructions to roll down his window. Body camera footage, released Monday, shows officers aggressively pulling Hill from his vehicle, forcing him to the ground, and handcuffing him. Teammate Calais Campbell, who tried to defuse the situation, was also briefly detained. The encounter added significant stress to the Dolphins’ game preparations.

Hill’s agent, Drew Rosenhaus, condemned the police actions, calling for the officers involved to be fired due to their “horrendous” treatment of the wide receiver. Meanwhile, one of the officers involved has retained legal counsel in an effort to contest his reassignment to administrative duty.

Coach McDaniel’s Focus on the Game as a “Gift of Distraction”

Despite the off-field drama, Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel believes the short turnaround leading into their Thursday night game could provide an unexpected benefit. McDaniel emphasized how the Dolphins could use the upcoming matchup as a “therapeutic” distraction from recent events.

“We are able to immerse ourselves into something that is a tangible goal that you have some control over,” McDaniel said. “At times, it will be therapeutic. NFL game week and a Thursday opponent can be our greatest gift — our gift of extreme distraction. Our guys are highly motivated, especially when the world creeps in on you and rattles you a little bit.”

McDaniel’s message highlights the importance of maintaining focus and using the game as an outlet for the team to channel any frustrations from the week’s turmoil.

Tyreek Hill’s Explosive Week 1 Performance

Despite the tumultuous circumstances, Hill delivered a stellar performance in the Dolphins’ season opener, demonstrating his ability to stay locked in on the field. He recorded seven receptions for 130 yards, including a breathtaking 80-yard touchdown that played a pivotal role in Miami’s 20-17 comeback victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Teammate Jaylen Waddle joined in the post-touchdown celebration with a playful nod to the week’s drama, grabbing Hill’s wrists and mimicking a handcuffing motion. The moment underscored the Dolphins’ ability to maintain levity amidst adversity.

Tua Tagovailoa’s Leadership Under Pressure

Much of the Dolphins’ ability to remain focused this week hinges on quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who led all NFL quarterbacks in Week 1 with 338 passing yards. Tagovailoa’s leadership and composure will be crucial as Miami looks to compartmentalize the external distractions and prepare for their toughest test yet.

“Guys are in the right frame of mind. Guys are ready to play this game,” Tagovailoa said. “There’s just been a lot of guys preparing up here in the building the past day or so since we played, so I think that’s a good thing for us.”

Tagovailoa’s steady approach reflects the team’s determination to focus on football, even as questions about their performance against their AFC East rivals persist.

The Challenge of Beating the Bills

The Bills have historically dominated the Dolphins, winning 10 of their last 11 regular-season meetings, and eliminating Miami from the playoffs in the 2022 Wild Card round with a 34-31 victory. Tagovailoa acknowledged that Miami must prove themselves against Buffalo if they want to change the narrative.

“That’s gonna be the narrative, that we can’t beat the Bills, and until we do beat them and we beat them consistently, none of that’s gonna change,” Tagovailoa admitted.

Josh Allen and the Bills: A Formidable Opponent

Buffalo (1-0) will present a significant challenge for Miami, led by their star quarterback Josh Allen, who was cleared to play after injuring his left (non-throwing) hand in Week 1. Despite the injury, Allen delivered a masterful performance against the Arizona Cardinals, throwing for two touchdowns and running for two more as the Bills rallied from a 17-3 deficit to secure a 34-28 victory.

Allen has been particularly dominant against Miami, compiling 679 passing yards, six touchdown passes, and one rushing touchdown in two games against the Dolphins last season. Allen’s ability to exploit defenses with both his arm and legs makes him a formidable adversary for Miami’s defense.

Key Injuries for Both Teams

Both teams are grappling with injuries heading into Thursday’s game. For the Dolphins, speedsters Raheem Mostert (chest) and De’Von Achane (ankle) missed practice early in the week, raising concerns about their availability. Offensive lineman Liam Eichenberg (shoulder) and linebacker Jaelan Phillips (Achilles) were also limited, while star cornerback Jalen Ramsey (hamstring) remains sidelined.

The Bills are dealing with their own injury issues, notably with cornerback Taron Johnson (forearm) and defensive end Dawuane Smoot (toe) ruled out for Thursday. Running back Ty Johnson (knee) and defensive end Javon Solomon (oblique) were limited in practice, potentially weakening Buffalo’s defense.

Miami’s Speed vs. Buffalo’s Defense

One of the most compelling storylines heading into the game is the Dolphins’ trademark speed on offense. With players like Hill and Waddle, Miami boasts some of the fastest weapons in the league, a factor that Buffalo coach Sean McDermott is keenly aware of.

“They got tremendous, tremendous speed,” McDermott said. “It’s unlike I’ve ever seen, and not just this year but in years past. … If you don’t get near them, they’re gone. Even when you get near them, they pull away.”

Miami’s offensive quickness will be critical in trying to overcome the Bills’ stout defense, especially if Mostert and Achane are unable to play. However, Buffalo’s injuries on defense may provide the Dolphins with opportunities to exploit mismatches.

Conclusion: Dolphins Embracing Distraction, Ready for Bills

With emotions running high after the Tyreek Hill incident, the Miami Dolphins face a pivotal test in Week 2 against the Buffalo Bills. Coach McDaniel’s focus on using the game as an “extreme distraction” aims to keep the team centered and motivated, while Tua Tagovailoa’s leadership is key to their preparation.

As Miami looks to break Buffalo’s recent dominance, the outcome may hinge on the health of their explosive playmakers and whether they can capitalize on Buffalo’s defensive injuries. For now, the Dolphins are embracing the challenge and looking to prove themselves on one of the biggest stages of the NFL’s early season.

Best NFL Expert Handicappers & Picks