Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots Picks and Predictions November 24th 2024

Dolphins vs Patriots November 24th 2024

The Patriots are +274 on the money line as they face the Dolphins on Sunday, November 24th at 1:00 ET on CBS. The Dolphins are the heavy favorite at -346 on the money line, with the game being played at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL. The Dolphins are -7 point favorites, and the over/under line is set at 46 points.

New England vs. Miami Key Information

With a 3-8 record, the Patriots have just a 0.2% chance of making the playoffs, and our power rankings have them 27th heading into week 12. New England couldn’t capitalize on their week 10 win over the Bears, falling 28-22 to the Rams in week 11. The Patriots were +4 underdogs at home but couldn’t cover the spread, and the 50 combined points went over the 42.5-point line.

New England is 4-6-1 against the spread this season and has been the underdog in all of their games. Their average scoring margin is -6 points, and their O/U record is 6-5, with their games averaging 39.1 points per game.

Heading into week 12, the Patriots rank 25th in our offensive power rankings. They are 28th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 16.5, and 31st in yards per game, with 281.2. New England ranks 30th in passing yards per game (165.9) on 31.7 attempts per game, which is 13th in the league. On the ground, they are 21st in rushing yards per game, with 115.3, on 26.4 attempts per game.

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In week 11, Drake Maye threw for 282 yards, completing 30 of 40 passes, with 2 touchdowns and 1 interception. Kendrick Bourne led the team with 5 catches for 70 yards and a touchdown, while Rhamondre Stevenson had 20 carries for 73 yards. The Patriots converted 6 of 14 third downs and scored on 2 of their 5 red zone trips against the Rams.

In their 28-22 loss to the Rams, the Patriots allowed 295 passing yards on just 18 completions, including four touchdowns through the air. The defense struggled to generate pressure, as they didn’t record a sack and had a -1 differential in quarterback hits. New England’s defense also allowed the Rams to convert 25% of their third down attempts.

On the ground, the Patriots gave up 107 rushing yards on 24 attempts. Despite not allowing a big rushing day, the Patriots did give up 402 total yards and allowed the Rams to average 10.9 yards per pass attempt. Additionally, New England had a -6 differential in tackles for loss.

The Dolphins have now won two straight games, including a 34-19 victory over the Raiders in week 11. Miami entered the game as 8-point favorites and covered the spread with a 15-point win. This improved their record to 4-6, and they are now 2nd in the AFC East. However, they have just a 14.5% chance of making the playoffs, according to our projections.

Heading into week 12, the Dolphins rank 18th in our power rankings. They have an average scoring margin of -4 points per game and are 4-6 against the spread. They have covered in three straight games, including a win over the Rams in week 10 as 2-point underdogs.

Heading into week 12, the Dolphins rank 21st in our offensive power rankings. They are 25th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 18.1 points per game. Miami is 22nd in passing yards per game (197) and 14th in passing attempts per game. On the ground, they rank 11th in rushing yards per game (122) and 9th in rushing attempts. The Dolphins have been solid on third down, converting 42.6% of their attempts, which ranks 9th in the league.

Tua Tagovailoa is coming off a strong performance in week 11, throwing for 288 yards and 3 touchdowns with a passer rating of 127 against the Raiders. Jonnu Smith led the team in receiving with 6 catches for 101 yards and 2 touchdowns, while De’Von Achane rushed for 73 yards on 17 carries. Miami scored 17 points in the 4th quarter to seal the win.

In their 34-19 win over the Raiders, the Dolphins’ defense allowed 328 total yards and 60 rushing yards on just 16 attempts. They gave up two passing touchdowns and allowed the Raiders to complete 69.8% of their passes. However, the Dolphins did come up with one interception and recorded three sacks. Las Vegas also converted on 57.1% of their third-down attempts.

Miami’s defense was able to pressure the quarterback, finishing with a positive QB hit differential of +2, despite losing the tackles for loss battle by a margin of -6.

Our pick vs. the spread is to take the Dolphins to cover as home favorites in this week 12 matchup against the Patriots. The point spread line is currently sitting at -7 in favor of Miami, and we have them winning by a score of 25-17.

As for the over/under, with the line at 46 points, we have a projected combined score of 42 points, making the under a good pick in this one.

Patriots Will Try to Reverse Road Struggles Against the Dolphins

The New England Patriots will aim to overcome their recent woes in Miami Gardens, Fla., when they face the Miami Dolphins on Sunday afternoon. Since 2013, the Patriots have a dismal 2-9 record when visiting the Dolphins, a trend first-year head coach Jerod Mayo hopes to reverse.

Mayo, who has been part of these struggles both as a player and a coach, is determined to focus on the present.

“First and foremost, I won’t address it with the guys as far as the struggles that we’ve had in Miami, even though they’re probably listening to me right now,” Mayo said. “But what I will say is every game is unique. … It’s a tough place to play. It’s not that it’s super loud or anything like that. We just haven’t been able to get over the hump.”

Maye Showing Promise for New England

Despite the team’s 3-8 record, rookie quarterback Drake Maye, the third overall pick in this year’s draft, has shown encouraging progress. Maye threw for 282 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception on 29-for-39 passing in last week’s 28-22 loss to the Los Angeles Rams.

Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa expressed his respect for Maye’s game and is looking forward to competing against him.

“I respect his game. I respect his game a lot,” Tagovailoa said. “He’s a rookie, so there’s gonna be bumps within his journey. But you see a lot of flashes of things that he can do, not just inside the pocket, outside of the pocket as well. I got a lot of respect for him, and looking forward to competing against him.”

Dolphins Riding Momentum

The Dolphins (4-6) have bounced back with two straight wins after a three-game losing streak. Miami’s most recent victory was a 34-19 triumph over the Las Vegas Raiders, during which Tagovailoa passed for 288 yards and three touchdowns. Former Patriots tight end Jonnu Smith played a key role with six catches for 101 yards and two scores.

The Dolphins also hold a recent victory over the Patriots, a 15-10 win in Week 5. Tagovailoa noted the familiarity between the two teams and the importance of adapting to New England’s game plan.

“We’re looking to go out there and play the plays with what they’ve presented us over the years,” Tagovailoa said. “If we need to adjust in any way, we’ll adjust.”

Injury Concerns for Both Teams

The Dolphins face several injury concerns, with cornerback Kendall Fuller (concussion) and offensive tackle Terron Armstead (knee) missing Wednesday’s practice. Key players such as wide receiver Tyreek Hill (wrist) and cornerback Jalen Ramsey (knee) were limited.

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For the Patriots, defensive end Deatrich Wise (foot), offensive tackle Vederian Lowe (shoulder), and defensive tackle Jaquelin Roy (neck) did not practice Wednesday. Safety Kyle Dugger (ankle) and defensive end Keion White (knee) were limited.

High Stakes in Miami

As both teams look to improve their seasons, the Patriots will rely on Maye’s growth and Mayo’s leadership to attempt a rare road win in Miami. Meanwhile, the Dolphins aim to maintain their momentum and keep their playoff hopes alive.