Miami Dolphins vs Las Vegas Raiders Picks and Predictions November 17th 2024

The Dolphins are the heavy favorite in their week 11 matchup against the Raiders, which is set for 1:00 ET on Sunday, November 17th at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL. The Dolphins’ money line odds are -390, while the Raiders are at +299. The game is being televised on CBS, with the Dolphins favored by -7.5 points and the over/under line set at 44.5 points.

Las Vegas vs. Miami Key Information

• Teams: Raiders at Dolphins
• Where: Hard Rock Stadium Miami Gardens
• Date: Sunday, November 17th
• Betting Odds MIA -390 | LV +299 O/U 44.5

The Raiders Can Win If…

Heading into week 11, the Raiders are looking to snap a five-game losing streak that includes a 41-24 loss to the Bengals in week 9. This leaves Las Vegas at 2-7, putting them 27th in our power rankings and giving them just a 1.0% chance of making the playoffs. They currently sit 4th in the AFC West with an 0-3 division record.

Against the spread, the Raiders are 4-5, including 4-4 as underdogs. Their O/U record is 6-3, with the over hitting in two straight games. Their matchups are averaging 46.6 points per game, with an average line of 40.4.

Heading into week 11, the Raiders rank 32nd in our offensive power rankings. They are 22nd in the NFL in points per game, averaging 18.7, and 29th in yards per game with 280.2. Despite being 7th in passing attempts per game, they are 18th in passing yards, averaging 203.3 per game. On the ground, they rank last in the league, with just 76.9 rushing yards per game on 22.1 attempts, which ranks 26th. Las Vegas is 25th in the NFL in 3rd-down conversion percentage but ranks 5th in red zone conversion percentage.

Gardner Minshew threw for 124 yards on 10/17 passing in week 9, after his 209-yard, 2-touchdown performance in week 8. Jakobi Meyers led the team with 8 catches for 105 yards in week 9. Alexander Mattison had 9 carries for 36 yards, and Brock Bowers had 5 catches for 58 yards in week 8 and 93 yards in week 7.

In their 41-24 loss to the Bengals, the Raiders’ defense struggled to defend the pass, giving up five touchdowns through the air. They allowed 243 passing yards on 27 completions. Despite forcing one interception, the Bengals completed 69.2% of their passes and converted 53.3% of their third down attempts.

In the running game, the Raiders gave up 130 yards on 31 attempts, averaging 4.2 yards per attempt. Las Vegas managed just one sack in the game and lost the QB hit and tackles for loss differentials.

• Las Vegas has put together a record of 0-3 in their last three games (regular season). This also includes going 2-1 ATS, and posting an over-under record of 2-1.
• Over their last ten regular season games, the Raiders have gone 3-7 straight up. This includes going 5-5 vs. the spread along with an over-under mark of 7-3.

The Dolphins Can Win If…

Miami snapped a four-game losing streak in week 10, defeating the Rams 23-15 on the road. The Dolphins entered the game as 2-point underdogs but managed to cover the spread with the 8-point win. This brought their record to 3-6, putting them 2nd in the AFC East, though they have just an 8.1% chance of making the playoffs according to our projections.

Heading into week 11, the Dolphins rank 20th in our NFL power rankings. Their average scoring margin this season is -6.1 points per game, and they are 3-6 against the spread. They have covered the spread in two straight games, including a narrow 3-point loss to the Bills in week 9, where they were 6-point underdogs.

Heading into week 11, the Dolphins rank 26th in our offensive power rankings, averaging 16.3 points per game, which is 27th in the NFL. They are 20th in the league in passing yards per game (188.8) and 16th in passing attempts. On the ground, Miami ranks 9th in rushing yards per game (126.4) and 8th in rushing attempts. They are converting 40.2% of their third-down attempts, which ranks 10th in the NFL, and they are 8th in red zone conversion percentage.

In week 10, Tua Tagovailoa threw for 207 yards, completing 20 of 28 passes with one touchdown and one interception. He was sacked three times. De’Von Achane led the team in rushing with 37 yards on 12 carries, while Jaylen Waddle had 57 receiving yards on 3 catches. Miami scored 7 points in both the first and third quarters against the Rams.

In their 23-15 win over the Rams, the Dolphins’ defense allowed 327 total yards. They defended the run well, giving up just 70 yards on 18 attempts. Against the pass, they allowed 257 yards, with the Rams completing 32 passes. However, Miami didn’t give up any passing touchdowns and limited the Rams to a 5.6 yards per attempt.

Miami’s defense came up with four sacks and an interception, and they held the Rams to a 25% conversion rate on third down. Despite this, the Dolphins did allow the Rams to move the ball effectively at times, particularly through the air, where they had a number of short completions.

• Miami has put together a record of 0-3 in their last three games (regular season). In these contests, the team went just 0-3 against the spread, while going 2-1 on the over-under.
• Over their last ten regular season games, the Dolphins have gone 5-5 straight up. The team’s record vs the spread was just 3-7, in addition to an over-under mark of 4-6.

The Lean

Our model has the Dolphins coming out on top by a score of 29-18 in their week 11 matchup against the Raiders. With this projected outcome, we like the Dolphins to cover the spread as 7.5-point home favorites.

For the over/under, we are leaning towards taking the over, with a projected combined score of 47 points and the line currently sitting at 44.5 points.

Dolphins Look to Build on Monday Night Football Win vs. Overhauled Raiders

The Miami Dolphins (3-6), buoyed by a critical road win against the Los Angeles Rams on Monday Night Football, will return home to face the struggling Las Vegas Raiders (2-7) on Sunday in Miami Gardens, Fla. With both teams attempting to salvage their seasons, this AFC clash holds high stakes.

Dolphins Finding Their Rhythm

After snapping a three-game losing streak with a 23-15 victory over the Rams, the Dolphins hope to sustain their newfound momentum. Miami’s defense played a starring role in the win, sacking Matthew Stafford four times, forcing two turnovers, and keeping Los Angeles out of the end zone.

On offense, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa continues to regain form after his early-season concussion. In his past three starts since returning, Tagovailoa has been efficient, completing 73 of 94 passes (77.7%) for 672 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception. His growing chemistry with receivers like Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle is a positive sign as Miami looks to climb out of its early-season hole.

Coach Mike McDaniel emphasized the team’s focus on steady improvement:

“We are trying to turn each day around, trying to fix each day of prep, and apply that to game situations. There’s urgency to turn our season around.”

However, injuries to key players pose a challenge. Starting right tackle Austin Jackson suffered a season-ending knee injury, and replacements Kendall Lamm and rookie Patrick Paul will need to step up. As of Wednesday, Tyreek Hill (wrist), Robert Jones (knee), and Kendall Fuller (concussion) were also listed as non-participants in practice.

Raiders Searching for Stability

The Raiders are reeling after a tumultuous bye week and a five-game losing streak, which includes a 30-20 loss to the Bengals in Week 9. Quarterback Gardner Minshew, who has struggled with 12 turnovers this season, will remain the starter despite being benched twice this year.

Interim head coach Antonio Pierce acknowledged Minshew’s inconsistency but expressed confidence in his ability to lead the offense moving forward:

“At some point, you’ve got to give a guy confidence. We’ve made decisions to put him on the bench at times, but we believe in Gardner’s ability to bounce back.”

To reverse their fortunes, the Raiders made significant coaching changes, including firing offensive coordinator Luke Getsy and replacing him with interim OC Scott Turner. Additionally, veteran coach Norv Turner was hired as a senior adviser, adding experience to the reshaped coaching staff.

The Raiders will also need improvement from an offensive line that has struggled to protect Minshew, especially with centers Andre James and Cody Whitehair nursing injuries. On defense, cornerback Nate Hobbs (ankle) and tight end Harrison Bryant (ankle) remain sidelined.

Key Matchup

Tua Tagovailoa vs. Raiders’ Secondary: Tagovailoa’s efficiency has been a highlight for Miami. He’ll look to exploit a Raiders’ defense that has struggled against the pass, especially with key injuries in their secondary.

Miami’s Defense vs. Gardner Minshew: With 12 turnovers, Minshew has been prone to costly mistakes. Miami’s opportunistic defense, fresh off a stellar performance against the Rams, will aim to pressure Minshew into errors.

Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle vs. Raiders’ Pass Defense: Hill and Waddle provide a dynamic threat in the passing game. If Hill overcomes his wrist injury, the Raiders will have their hands full trying to contain the duo.

Raiders’ Rushing Game: Las Vegas needs to establish the run to ease pressure on Minshew. Whether they can find success against Miami’s solid front seven will be critical.

Outlook

The Dolphins appear poised to continue their momentum, with their defense and Tagovailoa-led offense showing signs of cohesion. Meanwhile, the Raiders face an uphill battle, needing a clean performance from Minshew and contributions from their reshuffled coaching staff.

Prediction: Dolphins 27, Raiders 17