Atlanta Falcons vs L.a. Chargers Chargers Picks and Predictions December 1st 2024

The Chargers are favored on the road in their week 13 non-conference matchup against the Falcons. The game, set for 1:00 ET, will be played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. The Chargers’ money line odds are -122, while the Falcons’ money line odds are +101. The Chargers are -1.5 point favorites, and the over/under line is 47 points. You can watch this one on CBS.

Los Angeles vs. Atlanta Key Information

• Teams: Chargers at Falcons
• Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium Atlanta
• Date: Sunday, December 1st
• Betting Odds LAC -122 | ATL +101 O/U 47

The Chargers Can Win If…

After three straight wins, the Chargers couldn’t keep their streak going in week 12, falling 30-23 to the Ravens. This dropped them to 7-4, leaving them 2nd in the AFC West. Despite the loss, our projections give them a 91.4% chance of making the playoffs. Heading into week 13, they rank 11th in our NFL power rankings.

So far, the Chargers have an average scoring margin of +6.2 points per game and are 7-3-1 against the spread. They are 7-1 ATS as favorites but 0-2-1 as underdogs. Their O/U record is 4-7, with the over hitting in their last three games.

Heading into week 13, the Chargers are 11th in our offensive power rankings. They are averaging 22.1 points per game, which ranks 17th in the NFL, and they are 21st in yards per game with 322.6. Despite ranking 29th in passing attempts, the Chargers are 20th in passing yards per game, averaging 204.5. On the ground, they are 12th in rushing attempts and 13th in rushing yards per game, with 118.1. They are converting 38.5% of their third-down attempts, ranking 16th in the league, and they are 6th in red zone conversion percentage.

Justin Herbert threw for 218 yards in week 12, completing 21 of 36 passes. He didn’t throw a touchdown but avoided interceptions after being sacked four times. Ladd McConkey led the team with 6 catches for 83 yards, and J.K. Dobbins had 40 rushing yards on 6 carries. The Chargers scored in every quarter against the Ravens, with 7 points in the 1st and 4th quarters, 6 in the 2nd, and 3 in the 3rd.

In their 30-23 loss to the Ravens, the Chargers’ defense allowed 177 passing yards on just 16 completions, but they did give up two passing touchdowns. The bigger issue was defending the run, as they allowed 212 yards on 37 attempts, including a long 67-yard run by Lamar Jackson. The Ravens’ success on the ground led to 389 total yards of offense for Baltimore.

Los Angeles allowed the Ravens to convert on 53.3% of their third down attempts and lost the tackles for loss battle by a margin of -2. Despite limiting Baltimore to just 8.0 yards per attempt in the passing game, the Chargers couldn’t slow down the Ravens’ ground attack.

• Spanning across their last three games, Los Angeles have gone 2-1. In addition, their ATS record over this stretch is 2-1 while posting a 3-0 over-under mark.
• Los Angeles has put together a record of 6-4 in their last ten games (regular season). Across these games, their ATS record was just 6-3-1, while posting an over-under record of 4-6.

The Falcons Can Win If…

Despite a two-game losing streak, the Falcons remain atop the NFC South with a 6-5 record, including a 4-1 mark in division play. After a week 9 win over the Cowboys, Atlanta dropped their next two games, falling to the Saints in week 10 and the Broncos in week 11. They were unable to cover the spread in either matchup, including a 32-point loss to Denver as 2-point underdogs.

Our projections give the Falcons a 66.0% chance of winning the division and a 69.9% chance of making the playoffs. They rank 19th in our NFL power rankings. Atlanta has a -2.7 scoring margin and is 5-6 against the spread this season. Their O/U record is 4-7, with the under hitting in three straight games.

Heading into week 13, the Falcons are 10th in our offensive power rankings. They are 16th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 22.2 points per game, and rank 8th in total offense with 361.5 yards per game. Atlanta is 5th in passing yards, with 243.6 per game on 33.3 attempts (14th), while their rushing attack ranks 14th, averaging 117.9 yards on 26.4 carries per game. The Falcons are 20th in the league in 3rd-down conversions, with a 37.4% success rate, but they are 9th in red zone conversion percentage.

Kirk Cousins threw for 173 yards and an interception in week 11, completing 18 of 27 passes. Bijan Robinson had 35 yards on 12 carries, and Drake London led the team with 61 receiving yards on 3 catches. The Falcons struggled in the second half, failing to score after putting up 6 points in the first half.

In their 38-6 loss to the Broncos, the Falcons’ defense struggled to get off the field, as Denver converted on 54.5% of their third down attempts. Atlanta allowed four passing touchdowns while giving up 295 yards through the air on 84.8% passing. The Falcons’ lone sack came from the quarterback hit and tackles for loss differential, which they both lost by -3.

On the ground, the Falcons gave up 105 yards on 26 attempts, averaging 4.0 yards per attempt. Overall, the Falcons’ defense allowed 400 yards of total offense in the blowout loss.

• Over their last three games, the Falcons have gone 2-1 straight up. Their strong play has also resulted in an ATS mark of 2-1 (last 3). They had an over/under mark of 1-2 in those same games.
• Over their last ten regular season games, the Falcons have gone 5-5 straight up. Their record against the spread in this stretch is 4-6 to go along with an over-under mark of 4-6.

The Lean

For this week 13 matchup between the Chargers and Falcons, we have the Chargers coming out on top by a score of 24-19. With the point spread sitting at -1.5 in favor of the Chargers, we like them to not only win but cover as road favorites.

As for the best way to bet the over/under, we are leaning towards the under, with a projected combined score of 43 points, which is four points below the O/U line of 47.

Falcons Look to Bounce Back After Bye Week

The Atlanta Falcons (6-5) are gearing up for a critical stretch of games as they aim to solidify their lead in the NFC South. After back-to-back losses, Atlanta is determined to reverse course and keep its playoff hopes alive when they host the Los Angeles Chargers (7-4) on Sunday.

Coming off a bye, the Falcons have had time to regroup after a humbling 38-6 loss to the Denver Broncos two weeks ago. In that game, Atlanta’s offense sputtered, while the defense was overwhelmed by rookie quarterback Bo Nix, who threw four touchdowns.

Veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins, in his first year with the Falcons, views this final stretch of six games as a decisive opportunity.

“We’ve all had a great chance to recharge and refill the tanks for this stretch run,” Cousins said. “We’re in a place where we can control our destiny, but we’ve got to earn it.”

Cousins has been a bright spot for Atlanta, ranking fifth in the NFL with 2,807 passing yards. He hopes to lead the Falcons to their first playoff berth since 2017.

Chargers Aim to Regain Momentum After Tough Loss

The Los Angeles Chargers are also battling for a playoff spot, holding the second AFC wild-card position under first-year head coach Jim Harbaugh.

The Chargers are looking to rebound after a tough 30-23 loss to the Baltimore Ravens on Monday. Despite taking a 10-0 lead in the second quarter, Los Angeles faltered in the second half.

To make matters worse, starting running back J.K. Dobbins suffered an MCL sprain and will miss this week’s game. Dobbins has been a key part of the offense, rushing for 766 yards and eight touchdowns this season.

Backup running backs Gus Edwards and Hassan Haskins will take on larger roles in Dobbins’ absence. Harbaugh remains optimistic about their ability to step up.

“Gus is heating back up, and Hassan has been spectacular,” Harbaugh said. “I’m excited to see them out there.”

On defense, the Chargers have been stellar, allowing an NFL-best 15.9 points per game. However, Harbaugh is wary of facing a seasoned quarterback like Cousins.

“Kirk is the consummate pro,” Harbaugh said. “He’s consistently good every game, tough as nails, and competitive as they come.”

Key Matchups to Watch

Kirk Cousins vs. Chargers Defense

Cousins will face a stingy Los Angeles defense that has excelled all season. For the Falcons to succeed, Cousins will need to rely on his experience to counteract the Chargers’ pass rush and secondary.

Chargers’ Run Game Without J.K. Dobbins

The absence of Dobbins is a significant blow to Los Angeles, but Edwards and Haskins have shown flashes of promise. Their ability to establish the run will be critical in keeping the Falcons’ offense off the field.

Atlanta’s Injuries

The Falcons have been dealing with a slew of injuries, particularly at key positions. Wide receiver Darnell Mooney (Achilles) and cornerbacks Dee Alford (hamstring) and Mike Hughes (neck) were among 12 players limited in practice.

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Prediction

Both teams have much to play for, with playoff hopes hanging in the balance. The Falcons will benefit from their bye week and home-field advantage, but the Chargers’ defense could prove to be the difference-maker in a tight contest.

Final Score Prediction: Chargers 23, Falcons 20