Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints Picks and Predictions September 29th 2024

The Saints are the underdog in their week four matchup against the Falcons, with Atlanta favored on the money line at -123. The game is set for 1:00 ET on Sunday, September 29th at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. The point spread is tight, with the Falcons at -1.5 and the over/under line is sitting at 42 points. You can catch this NFC South matchup on FOX.

New Orleans vs. Atlanta Key Information

Despite leading 3-0 after the 1st quarter, the Saints lost their most recent game 15-12 to the Eagles, dropping their record to 2-1 for the season. New Orleans went into the game as -2.5 point favorites, and with the 15-12 loss, they also lost straight-up. The combined 27 points was well below the over/under line of 49 points.

After a Saquon Barkley touchdown in the 3rd quarter, the Saints added a field goal in the 4th, and with 11:44 remaining in the 4th, they took a 12-7 lead on a touchdown pass from Derek Carr to Chris Olave. However, the Eagles scored with 1:05 left, and the Saints were unable to come back. Blake Grupe kicked two field goals for the Saints, and the Eagles added a touchdown in the 4th quarter to pull ahead for good.

The Saints’ offense struggled in their 15-12 loss to the Eagles, managing just 130 yards through the air. Derek Carr, who was 14/25 for 142 yards, was their leading passer. New Orleans finished with only 12 first downs and 89 yards rushing on 29 attempts. Carr threw one touchdown, and Alvin Kamara led the team with 87 yards on 26 carries.

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Chris Olave caught six passes for 86 yards and a touchdown. The Saints’ offense failed to complete a single pass in the game, finishing with a 0% completion rate. They also allowed 460 yards to the Eagles’ offense.

In their 15-12 loss to the Eagles, the Saints’ defense gave up 172 rushing yards on just 25 attempts, with Philadelphia running for 6.9 yards per attempt. Despite this, they did not allow a single passing completion, as the Eagles finished with 288 yards through the air. New Orleans’ defense recorded four sacks and one interception, and they held the Eagles to a 42.9% third-down conversion rate.The Saints’ defense was able to generate pressure in the passing game, with four sacks and a few quarterback hits. However, their inability to stop the run was a significant factor in their recent loss to the Eagles. Even though they didn’t allow any passing yards, Philadelphia was able to move the ball effectively through the air.

Despite leading 14-13 at halftime, the Falcons ended up losing 22-17 to the Chiefs, dropping their record to 1-2. Atlanta started the game with a touchdown from Kirk Cousins to Drake London but eventually fell behind in the 3rd quarter. The Chiefs outscored the Falcons 9-0 in the 3rd quarter and added another touchdown early in the 4th.

After the Falcons’ last score, Atlanta couldn’t find the endzone, and the Chiefs sealed the game with a late touchdown. Atlanta was +3 point underdogs heading into the game, and their 17 points fell short of the over/under line of 46.5 points.

Despite the loss, the Falcons picked up 19 first downs in their 22-17 defeat to the Chiefs. Atlanta’s offense gained 229 yards through the air, with Kirk Cousins throwing for 230 yards on 20 of 29 passing. He finished with one touchdown and one interception. The Falcons struggled on third down, converting just 22.2% of their chances.

Atlanta’s running game was limited to 82 yards on 25 attempts. Tyler Allgeier was their leading rusher with 32 yards, while Drake London led the team in receiving with 67 yards and one touchdown.

In their 22-17 loss to the Chiefs, the Falcons’ defense allowed 217 yards through the air. They struggled to defend the run, giving up 128 yards on 33 attempts. Despite not recording any sacks, Atlanta did force one interception and held Kansas City to a 42.9% conversion rate on third down.The Falcons’ defense also didn’t allow a single completion in the passing game, and they limited the Chiefs to 0 passing yards. However, Atlanta did give up two passing touchdowns. The Falcons also had a tough time in the trenches, losing the tackles for loss battle by a margin of -6.

For this week four matchup between the Saints and Falcons, we have the Saints coming out on top by a score of 25-20. With the point spread sitting at -1.5 in favor of the Saints, our pick vs. the spread is to take the Saints to cover as road underdogs.

As for an over/under pick, with the line at 42 points, we like the over, projecting a combined score of 45 points. This makes for a good opportunity to get some action on this matchup.

Saints, Falcons Hunting Early Statement Win in Division Showdown

Over the past two seasons, the NFC South has been underwhelming, with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers taking the division despite mediocre records. However, this year the division looks more competitive, and the New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons aim to prove they are legitimate contenders when they face off on Sunday.

Crucial Stretch Begins for Both Teams

Sunday’s matchup marks the start of a critical three-game stretch for both the Saints (2-1) and Falcons (1-2). After playing Atlanta, New Orleans will face the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs before hosting Tampa Bay. Meanwhile, the Falcons begin a string of three consecutive divisional matchups that could define their season.

This will be the 111th meeting between these two storied rivals, with each team holding 55 wins in the all-time series.

“The division is coming to town, and we better be ready to deal,” Falcons head coach Raheem Morris said. “This will determine a lot about us at the end of it all, but right now we better focus on the New Orleans Saints.”

Falcons Struggling with Third-Down Conversions

First-year Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins will be making his debut in this heated rivalry. So far, Cousins has completed 66.7 percent of his passes for 626 yards, with four touchdowns and three interceptions. However, an area of concern for Cousins and the Falcons’ offense has been third-down conversions. Atlanta has converted just 22.2 percent of third downs, ranking third-lowest in the league.

In last Sunday’s 22-17 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, the Falcons went just 2-for-9 on third downs.

“Our offense on third down has not been very good,” Morris said. “That has been an emphasis for us, to keep drives going so we can maintain and get through possessions.”

The Falcons’ offense has struggled to score consistently, averaging 16.3 points per game, tied for 26th in the league.

Saints Offense Looking to Rebound

On the other hand, the Saints’ offense exploded out of the gate this season, scoring at least 44 points in each of their first two games. New Orleans steamrolled the Carolina Panthers 47-10 in Week 1 and routed the Dallas Cowboys 44-19 in Week 2. However, they were slowed down last Sunday, losing a 15-12 battle against the Philadelphia Eagles.

Saints head coach Dennis Allen, who has deep connections to both teams through his father and his coaching history, understands the intensity of this rivalry.

“It’s a fun game to be a part of,” Allen said. “Whether we play them in the Superdome or their stadium, it’s always been a great environment and it’s always been a lot of fun to compete against those guys.”

Alvin Kamara Leading the Way for New Orleans

New Orleans’ offensive success in 2024 can be largely attributed to running back Alvin Kamara. His 285 rushing yards rank fourth in the NFL, and his four rushing touchdowns are tied for the league lead. Kamara has been instrumental in keeping the Saints’ offense dynamic, but he missed practice on Wednesday due to hip and rib injuries. Other key players who missed practice include offensive guard Cesar Ruiz (knee), cornerback Alontae Taylor (illness), and linebacker Demario Davis (hamstring).

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Falcons Facing Key Injuries on the Offensive Line

The Falcons are also dealing with injuries, particularly on the offensive line. Center Drew Dalman was placed on injured reserve with a high ankle sprain, and tackle Kaleb McGary didn’t practice Wednesday due to a sprained MCL. Ryan Neuzil is expected to step in and make his fifth career start in Dalman’s absence.