Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers Picks and Predictions January 11th 2025

Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers January 11th 2025

The Chargers are favored on the road as they take on the Texans in an AFC wild card round matchup. The game, set for 4:30 ET on Saturday, January 11th at NRG Stadium in Houston, will be broadcast on CBS. The Chargers’ money line odds are -160, while the Texans’ money line odds are +134. The Chargers are -3 point favorites, and the over/under line is at 43.5 points.

Los Angeles vs. Houston Key Information

• Teams: Chargers at Texans
• Where: NRG Stadium Houston
• Date: Saturday, January 11th
• Betting Odds LAC -160 | HOU +134 O/U 43.5

The Chargers Can Win If…

The Chargers closed the regular season with three straight wins, including a 34-20 victory over the Raiders in week 18. This put them at 11-6, good for 2nd in the AFC West and 5th in the conference. Against the spread, they went 12-4-1, including 11-2 as favorites. Their O/U record was 8-9, with the over hitting in their last four games.

Heading into the playoffs, the Chargers rank 10th in our power rankings. They have a +5.9 scoring margin and are 6-3 on the road and 5-3 at home. In division games, they went 4-2.

Justin Herbert posted a passer rating of 105 in week 3, completing 12 of 18 passes for 125 yards and one touchdown, without an interception. Quentin Johnston led the Chargers in receiving with 44 yards and a touchdown on two catches, while J.K. Dobbins had 15 carries for 44 yards. The Chargers struggled on third down, converting only 3 of 11 attempts, and failed to score on their lone red zone trip.

Heading into the Wild Card round, the Chargers rank 11th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 23.6. They are 19th in passing yards per game (213.5) and 17th in rushing yards per game (110.7). Los Angeles ranks 11th in the league in third-down conversion percentage, with a 40.3% success rate.

In their 34-20 win over the Raiders, the Chargers’ defense allowed just 39 rushing yards on 12 attempts. They gave up 225 passing yards on 25 completions, with two passing touchdowns allowed. The defense allowed the Raiders to complete 69.4% of their passes and convert only 22.2% of their third down attempts.

Despite not recording any sacks, the Chargers did come up with one interception. They also won the quarterback hit battle, with two more hits than the Raiders.

• Los Angeles will look to keep things rolling as they have put together a mark of 3-0 over their past three games. This also includes going 3-0 ATS and an over-under mark of 3-0.
• Across Los Angeles’s last ten regular season games, their record sits at 7-3. Against the spread, Los Angeles went 8-2 in these games and finished with an over-under mark of 7-3.

The Texans Can Win If…

With a 10-7 record, the Texans finished the season atop the AFC South, going 5-1 in division play. Entering the season ranked 18th in our power rankings, Houston now sits 4th in the AFC. They went 5-3 at home and 5-4 on the road.

Against the spread, the Texans were 7-9-1, with a scoring margin of 0. They were 4-6-1 as favorites and 3-3 as underdogs. Their O/U record was 6-10-1, with their games averaging 43.8 points compared to a 44.5-point line.

Heading into the Wild Card round, the Texans rank 20th in our offensive power rankings. They are 18th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 21.9 points per game, and 22nd in total yards, with 319.7 per game. Houston ranks 10th in passing attempts but is 21st in passing yards, averaging 207.4 per game. On the ground, they are 15th in rushing yards per game and 17th in rushing attempts. The Texans are 17th in the league in 3rd-down conversions, with a rate of 37.7%, and they rank 15th in red zone conversion percentage.

In week 3, C.J. Stroud threw for 215 yards, completing 20 of 31 passes, with 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions. Cam Akers led the team in rushing with 21 yards on 9 carries, while Stefon Diggs had 10 receptions for 94 yards. Houston struggled on 3rd down, converting only 4 of 14 attempts, and they scored just 7 points in the 3rd quarter after being shut out in the other three quarters.

In their 23-14 win over the Titans, the Texans’ defense allowed just 85 rushing yards on 32 attempts, giving up only 2.7 yards per attempt on the ground. Against the pass, they gave up 229 yards, with the Titans completing 16 passes. Houston held Tennessee to a 33.3% conversion rate on third down and came away with two sacks.

The Texans’ defense also forced the Titans into negative plays, as Houston had more tackles for loss and won the quarterback hit differential. Despite allowing 314 total yards, their defense made key stops when needed.

• The Texans have gone 1-2 over their last three regular season games. In these matchups, they ended with an ATS record of 1-2 and an over-under mark of 1-2.
• Over their last ten regular season games, the Texans have gone 7-3 straight up. In these contests, the team went just 5-5 against the spread, while going 2-7-1 on the over-under.

The Lean

For this week one postseason matchup between the Chargers and Texans, we have the Texans as 3-point favorites. Our pick vs. the spread is to take the Chargers to not only cover but win the game, with a projected final score of 22-20 in favor of the Chargers.

As for an over/under pick, with the line sitting at 43.5 points, we like the under, projecting a combined score of 42 points.

C.J. Stroud, Texans Face Tough Wild-Card Test Against Chargers

The Houston Texans host the Los Angeles Chargers on Saturday in an AFC wild-card matchup that pits rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud against the NFL’s top-ranked scoring defense. The Texans, who secured the AFC South crown, are looking to “get hot” at the right time, while the Chargers aim to capitalize on their strong finish under first-year coach Jim Harbaugh.

Texans Enter Playoffs Seeking Momentum

The Texans (10-7) wrapped up the regular season with a 23-14 victory over the Tennessee Titans, snapping a two-game skid. Despite resting starters in the finale, Houston showed flashes of its offensive potential, with Stroud completing all six of his passes for 50 yards and a touchdown in a brief cameo.

Stroud’s efficiency has been a hallmark of Houston’s offense this season. The rookie has relied on Nico Collins, who stepped up following Stefon Diggs’ midseason injury. Collins led the team with 68 receptions, 1,006 receiving yards, and seven touchdowns. Complementing the passing attack is running back Joe Mixon, whose 1,016 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns add balance to the Texans’ offense.

Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik emphasized the importance of offensive rhythm:

“If you get hot as an offense, especially around this time of year, that’s a really good thing for your team and your organization,” Slowik said.

The Texans’ offensive line will have its hands full against a Chargers front led by Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack, two veterans known for creating havoc in both the pass rush and run defense.

Chargers Boast Balanced Attack

The Chargers (11-6) ended the regular season with a 34-20 win over the Las Vegas Raiders, earning the AFC’s fifth seed. Quarterback Justin Herbert led the way with 346 passing yards and two touchdowns, showing why he’s one of the league’s premier young quarterbacks.

Herbert has developed strong chemistry with rookie wide receiver Ladd McConkey, whose 82 catches for 1,149 yards led the team. McConkey’s contributions, alongside Quentin Johnston’s team-high eight touchdown receptions, give Los Angeles a dynamic passing attack.

Los Angeles may also introduce a new element to its offense after signing veteran running back Ezekiel Elliott. Injuries to J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards have left the Chargers thin at running back, but Herbert remains confident in the versatility of their offense:

“Having the threat of being able to run the ball out of a certain set and throw the ball out of the same set, it’s tough on defenses,” Herbert said.

Key Matchups to Watch

Stroud vs. Chargers’ Front Seven

Stroud will face a relentless Chargers pass rush anchored by Bosa and Mack. Houston’s offensive line must protect their quarterback and create lanes for Mixon to establish the run game.

Herbert vs. Texans’ Pass Defense

The Texans boast a formidable secondary that allowed just 201 passing yards per game, the sixth-lowest in the NFL. With 29 takeaways this season, Houston’s defense, led by Danielle Hunter (12 sacks) and Will Anderson Jr. (11 sacks), will look to pressure Herbert and disrupt his rhythm.

Red-Zone Execution

The Texans’ red-zone defense ranks 27th in the league, presenting an opportunity for the Chargers to capitalize on scoring chances. Conversely, Houston will need to finish drives to keep pace with Los Angeles.

Explore In-Depth Betting Insights and Predictions for the NFL Wild Card Round

What’s at Stake

Saturday marks the first postseason meeting between these two teams. For the Texans, it’s a chance to validate their late-season momentum and make a deep playoff run under rookie quarterback Stroud. For the Chargers, it’s an opportunity to erase the sting of last year’s wild-card collapse against Jacksonville and prove they can contend in the AFC.

With star power on both sides and playoff intensity in full swing, this matchup promises to deliver a compelling clash as the Texans and Chargers vie for a spot in the divisional round.