Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans Picks and Predictions December 1st 2024

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans December 1st 2024

FOX will broadcast the week 13 AFC South matchup between the Texans and Jaguars from EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville. The Jaguars are +191 on the money line, while the Texans are favored at -232. The Texans are -5 point favorites on the road, and the over/under line is set at 43.5 points for this one, which kicks off at 1:00 ET on Sunday, December 1st.

Houston vs. Jacksonville Key Information

• Teams: Texans at Jaguars
• Where: EverBank Stadium Jacksonville
• Date: Sunday, December 1st
• Betting Odds HOU -232 | JAX +191 O/U 43.5

The Texans Can Win If…

At 7-5, the Texans hold a narrow lead in the AFC South, giving them a 90.9% chance of winning the division and a 92.5% chance of making the playoffs. After snapping a two-game losing streak with a 34-10 win over the Cowboys in week 11, Houston couldn’t keep the momentum going, falling 32-27 to the Titans in week 12. The Texans were favored by 8 points at home but couldn’t get the win, dropping their ATS record to 5-7 this season.

Heading into week 13, the Texans rank 12th in our NFL power rankings. They have an average scoring margin of +1.4 points per game and an O/U record of 4-7-1, with the over hitting in their last two games.

Heading into week 13, the Texans rank 19th in our offensive power rankings. They are 12th in the NFL in points per game (23.8) and 16th in yards per game (336). C.J. Stroud threw for 247 yards (20/33) and 2 touchdowns in week 12, but he also had 2 interceptions and was sacked 4 times. Joe Mixon struggled on the ground, rushing for just 22 yards on 14 carries, while Nico Collins led the team with 5 catches for 92 yards and a touchdown.

Houston ranks 15th in passing yards per game (221.4) and 20th in rushing yards per game (114.6). They are 22nd in the league in 3rd-down conversions, with a 37% success rate, and rank 23rd in red zone conversion percentage. However, they are 3rd in the NFL in 1st-quarter scoring.

In their 32-27 loss to the Titans, the Texans’ defense allowed 8 sacks and came up with 1 interception. Despite this, their defense struggled to stop the run, allowing 132 rushing yards on 33 attempts. They also gave up 237 passing yards on just 18 completions, with Tennessee averaging 9.5 yards per pass attempt. Additionally, the Texans allowed 72% of passes to be completed and finished with a 28.6% third-down conversion rate.

The Texans’ defensive front did have a good game in terms of pressure, winning the QB hit differential and the tackles for loss differential. However, their inability to stop the run and defend the big play in the passing game contributed to their overall defensive struggles in the game.

• Across Houston’s last three regular season games, their record sits at 1-2. Across this span, their ATS record sits at 2-1 to go along with an over-under mark of 2-0-1.
• Across Houston’s last ten regular season games, their record sits at 5-5. In these contests, the team went just 5-5 against the spread, while going 3-6-1 on the over-under.

The Jaguars Can Win If…

Heading into week 13, the Jaguars are looking to snap a four-game losing streak, which includes a 52-6 loss to the Lions in week 11. This leaves Jacksonville at 2-9 on the season, putting them 28th in our power rankings. We give the Jags a 0.5% chance of making the playoffs and winning the AFC South.

Jacksonville is 6-5 against the spread, with a +5-2 record as underdogs. Their O/U record is 7-4, with their games averaging 47.6 points per game.

Heading into week 13, Jacksonville ranks 24th in our offensive power rankings. They are 23rd in the NFL in points per game (18.9) and 30th in yards per game (290.8). The Jaguars are 27th in passing yards per game, with 189.2, on 30.4 attempts per game. On the ground, they rank 25th in rushing yards per game (101.6) and 28th in rushing attempts. Jacksonville is 30th in the league in 3rd-down conversion rate, converting 31.9% of their attempts, and they rank 15th in red zone conversion percentage.

Mac Jones has started the last two games for Jacksonville, throwing for 138 yards (17/29) in week 11 after a 111-yard performance in week 10. Trevor Lawrence is questionable for week 13 with a shoulder injury. Travis Etienne Jr. led the team with 27 rushing yards on 12 carries in week 11, and Brian Thomas Jr. had 5 receptions for 82 yards. The Jaguars scored just 6 points in their week 11 loss to the Lions, with only 3 points in the first half and none in the 2nd half.

In their most recent game, the Jaguars’ defense gave up 645 yards to the Lions in a 52-6 loss. They allowed Detroit to complete 81.8% of their passes for 449 yards and four touchdowns, with the Lions finding a lot of success down the field, averaging 13.6 yards per attempt. Jacksonville failed to generate any pressure, finishing with zero sacks and losing the quarterback hit battle.

On the ground, the Jaguars gave up 196 rushing yards to the Lions on 43 attempts. The Jaguars’ defense struggled to get off the field, as the Lions converted on 60% of their third down attempts.

• Over their last three regular season games, the Jaguars have gone 1-2 straight up. Across this span, their ATS record sits at 3-0 to go along with an over-under mark of 2-1.
• The Jaguars have gone 4-6 over their last ten regular season games. The team’s record vs the spread was just 5-5, in addition to an over-under mark of 5-5.

The Lean

Our point spread pick for this week 13 matchup between the Jaguars and Texans is to take the Jaguars to cover as home underdogs. The Jaguars are currently sitting at +5 point underdogs, and we have them winning and covering the spread by a score of 26-17.

For the over/under, with the line sitting at 43.5 points, we are leaning towards taking the under, with our projections pointing to a combined score of 43 points.

Weekly Football Picks from The Best NFL Expert Handicappers

Texans Look to Get “Locked In” as Jaguars Await in Key AFC South Clash

The Houston Texans are gearing up for a crucial AFC South showdown against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday. After a frustrating loss to the Tennessee Titans, Houston’s head coach DeMeco Ryans knows his team must stay focused to maintain their lead in the division and make a strong December push.

The Texans’ Quest for Focus

Sitting at 7-5, the Texans have had a solid season, but recent struggles have highlighted the need for sharper execution. Ryans emphasized the importance of being “locked in” on the details that can define a win or loss.

“It all comes down to minor, minute details that you get exploited if you don’t do them the correct way,” said Ryans. “A lot of the things, as I talked to our guys about, are things that we can control.”

Houston has lost three of its last four games, and their upcoming game provides an opportunity to reset their momentum.

Jaguars Seek Redemption

On the other side, the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9) are coming off a disastrous 52-6 loss to the Detroit Lions, marking their fourth consecutive defeat. Despite their record, Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson is preparing to implement changes in both the running and passing game.

“There are things in the run game we have to get back to,” Pederson said. “Even in the passing game, tweaking some things there.”

While Pederson has not disclosed specific plans, the potential return of quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who has been sidelined since November 3 with a shoulder injury, could provide a much-needed boost. Lawrence was a limited participant in practice this week, and his availability for Sunday remains uncertain.

C.J. Stroud Faces Growing Pains

Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud has shown flashes of brilliance this season but has struggled with turnovers. After throwing only five interceptions in his rookie year, Stroud has thrown nine in 12 games this season, including two in last week’s loss to Tennessee. Despite the setbacks, Stroud’s 247 yards and two touchdowns in that game highlight his ability to make big plays.

Jaguars coach Doug Pederson acknowledged the challenges of playing quarterback in the NFL while cautioning against underestimating Stroud.

“Playing the quarterback position is hard,” Pederson said. “He’s missed his playmakers from time to time, but he’s still a player who can hurt you.”

Key Injuries Impact Both Teams

Both teams are dealing with critical injuries that could affect Sunday’s game:

• Houston Texans: Defensive ends Will Anderson Jr. (ankle) and Denico Autry (knee) didn’t practice Wednesday. Safety Jalen Pitre is also sidelined due to a shoulder injury.
• Jacksonville Jaguars: Linebacker Yasir Abdullah (hamstring) missed practice, while Tyson Campbell (shoulder) and Trevor Lawrence were limited participants.

Rivalry and Recent History

This marks the second meeting of the season between the two teams. The Texans edged out the Jaguars 24-20 on September 29, thanks to strong defensive plays and clutch performances. Sunday’s rematch offers Houston a chance to sweep the series, while Jacksonville will look to avenge their earlier loss.

What’s at Stake?

• For the Texans:
  • A win would strengthen their position atop the AFC South and rebuild confidence after a rough patch.
  • It’s also an opportunity to refine their game plan heading into the critical final stretch of the season.
• For the Jaguars:
  • While playoff hopes are slim, a victory would provide a morale boost and show progress in addressing their struggles.
  • The return of key players like Trevor Lawrence could signal a turning point.

Conclusion

The Texans have the edge in this matchup, given their stronger record and earlier victory against the Jaguars. However, Jacksonville’s potential adjustments and the uncertainty surrounding injuries on both sides add intrigue to this divisional clash. For Houston, being “locked in” on the details may be the difference between maintaining their lead and falling victim to an upset.