Jacksonville Jaguars vs New England Patriots Picks and Predictions October 20th 2024

Pair of 1-5 teams seek better fate as Pats, Jags meet in London

The Jaguars are the heavy favorite as the home team at -239 on the money line, with the Patriots at +195. This week seven matchup is being played at Wembley Stadium in London, with the Jaguars technically the home team. Kickoff is set for 9:30 ET, and the Jaguars are -5.5 point favorites. The over/under line is at 42.5 points, and the game is being televised on NFLN.

New England vs. Jacksonville Key Information

• Teams: Patriots at Jaguars
• Where: Wembley Stadium London
• Date: Sunday, October 20th
• Betting Odds JAX -239 | NE +195 O/U 42.5

The Patriots Can Win If…

Heading into week 7, the Patriots are looking to snap a five-game losing streak, which includes a 41-21 home loss to the Texans in week 6. New England was a 6.5-point underdog in that game and failed to cover the spread, dropping their ATS record to 1-4-1. They have been the underdog in all of their games so far this season. Their O/U record stands at 3-3, with their games averaging 37.7 points compared to an average line of 39.6.

With a 1-5 record, the Patriots rank 32nd in our power rankings and have just a 0.3% chance of making the playoffs. Their only win came in week 1, when they beat the Bengals 16-10. Since then, they have lost to the Seahawks, Jets, 49ers, Dolphins, and Texans.

Heading into week 7, the Patriots rank 29th in our offensive power rankings. They sit 28th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 13.8 points per game, and are 30th in total yards, with 257.5 per game. New England has struggled in the passing game, ranking last in the league with 134.3 passing yards per game on 29.3 attempts per contest. On the ground, they rank 16th in rushing attempts and 12th in rushing yards per game.

Drake Maye took over at quarterback in week 6, throwing for 243 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions in the Patriots’ loss to the Texans. Demario Douglas led the team with 6 catches for 92 yards, while Maye also added 38 rushing yards. New England converted just 3 of 13 third-down attempts but scored on their lone red zone trip.

In their 41-21 loss to the Texans, the Patriots’ defense struggled to stop the run, giving up 192 yards on the ground across 28 attempts. Despite this, they did limit Houston to just 176 passing yards on 20 completions, with a collective 62.5% completion rate. However, the Texans did manage to score three passing touchdowns.

On third downs, the Patriots allowed the Texans to convert 36.4% of their chances. New England’s defense did come up with one interception and managed two sacks in the game.

• Over their last three regular season games, the Patriots have gone 0-3 straight up. Across these games, their ATS record was just 0-3, while posting an over-under record of 2-1.
• New England has put together a record of 2-8 in their last ten games (regular season). In these matchups, they ended with an ATS record of 3-5-2 and an over-under mark of 6-4.

The Jaguars Can Win If…

Jacksonville heads into week 7 against the Patriots with a 1-5 record, putting their playoff chances at just 4.8% and their power ranking at 24th. Their only win came in week 5, when they beat the Colts 37-34 at home. However, they couldn’t build on that victory, falling to the Bears 35-16 in week 6. The Jaguars were 1.5-point favorites in that game but couldn’t get the win, dropping them to 4th in the AFC South.

Jacksonville is 2-4 against the spread this season, with both of their ATS wins coming as underdogs. They’ve failed to cover in two straight games, including their week 6 loss to the Bears. The over has hit in two consecutive Jaguars games, with their matchups averaging 48.5 points per game.

Trevor Lawrence has thrown for 234 yards (23/35) and 2 touchdowns in week 6, following his 371-yard performance in week 5. He posted a passer rating of 91 against the Bears, with 1 interception and 3 sacks. Evan Engram led the team with 10 catches for 102 yards, while D’Ernest Johnson had 6 carries for 28 yards.

Jacksonville ranks 22nd in our offensive power rankings, averaging 18.8 points per game (20th) and 319.5 yards per game (19th). They are 25th in 3rd-down conversions, with a 30.4% success rate.

In their 35-16 loss to the Bears, the Jaguars’ defense struggled to defend the pass, allowing four passing touchdowns and a completion percentage of 79.3%. They gave up 373 yards, with 221 yards coming through the air. The Jaguars’ run defense also had a tough outing, allowing 152 yards on just 29 attempts (5.2 yards per attempt).

Despite their struggles, the Jaguars did manage to record three sacks and force one interception. Offenses were able to convert on 45.5% of their third down attempts against Jacksonville.

• Jacksonville will look to keep things rolling as they have put together a mark of 2-1 over their past three games. However, they have only gone 1-2 vs. the spread over this stretch. Their over-under record in these three games was 1-2.
• The Jaguars have gone 5-5 over their last ten regular season games. Across these games, their ATS record was just 4-6, while posting an over-under record of 5-5.

The Lean

For this week seven matchup between the Patriots and Jaguars, we have the Patriots coming out on top by a score of 25-24. With the Jaguars being the home team, they are currently sitting at -5.5 point favorites. However, our pick vs. the spread is to take the Patriots to cover as road underdogs.

As for the over/under, with the line sitting at 42.5 points, we have these teams combining for 49 points, making the over our recommended pick.

NFL Latest Picks & Previews

The New England Patriots and Jacksonville Jaguars, two teams searching for a way to change their fortunes, are set to clash in an international showdown at Wembley Stadium in London on Sunday. With both teams sitting at 1-5, this game could be pivotal for two franchises eager to spark some life into their seasons.

New England Patriots: Maye’s Development in Focus

For the New England Patriots, the focus is on both ending their five-game losing streak and helping their rookie quarterback, Drake Maye, continue to grow. Maye, selected as the third overall pick out of North Carolina, made his NFL debut last week against the Houston Texans, showing flashes of potential despite the Patriots’ 41-21 defeat.

Maye completed 20 of 33 passes for 243 yards, throwing three touchdowns but also two interceptions, finishing with a passer rating of 88.3. While not perfect, his performance injected some much-needed life into a Patriots offense that has been near the bottom of the league in key metrics, including 31st in yards per play (4.3) and yards per pass attempt (5.5).

Patriots’ head coach Jerod Mayo acknowledged the positive energy Maye brought but emphasized the need for the team to start games stronger. “We’ve yet to score on an opening drive this season. That has to change,” Mayo stated, hinting at potential lineup changes to fix issues like the team’s lack of focus. The Patriots have failed to pick up a first down in four of their six opening drives, highlighting their struggle to set the tone early in games.

Injuries Cloud Patriots’ Offensive Potential

The Patriots’ quest for improvement is complicated by key injuries. Star running back Rhamondre Stevenson missed practice with a foot injury, putting his status for Sunday’s game in doubt. Offensive tackle Vederian Lowe and cornerback Marcus Jones were also sidelined with injuries, further limiting the Patriots’ lineup.

With Maye still adjusting to the NFL level, the possible absence of Stevenson could shift more pressure onto the rookie’s shoulders, as New England’s offense will need to find ways to compensate for the loss of their leading rusher.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Must-Win Game Mindset

For the Jacksonville Jaguars, this game represents a crucial moment in the season. After securing their first win against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 5, Jacksonville couldn’t build momentum, suffering a 35-16 defeat to the Chicago Bears last week. The loss was particularly disappointing, as they allowed rookie quarterback Caleb Williams to throw four touchdowns, exposing major flaws in their defense.

Head coach Doug Pederson didn’t mince words when discussing his defense’s struggles, noting they’ll need a much better performance against another rookie QB, Drake Maye. “He’s got a big arm, he’s smart, and he’s tough,” Pederson said, acknowledging Maye’s ability while making it clear that his team cannot afford another defensive lapse.

The Jaguars’ defense has been one of the most generous in the league, ranking 30th in yards allowed per play (6.0) and giving up the second-most points (178) so far this season. Pederson underscored the importance of keeping the game low-scoring, stating, “First one to 20 might win the game,” a clear sign of how much both teams have struggled offensively.

Offensive Challenges and Injuries for Jacksonville

Jacksonville’s offense hasn’t fared much better. After a promising start last week with an early field goal, the Jaguars couldn’t sustain their rhythm. They’ve averaged just 18 or 19 points per game, according to Pederson, which has made it difficult to win, especially when their defense gives up big plays.

To make matters worse, the Jaguars could be without their top running back, Travis Etienne, who is listed as week-to-week with a hamstring injury. If Etienne can’t play, Jacksonville will turn to rookie Tank Bigsby and D’Ernest Johnson to carry the load. Bigsby has shown flashes, notably rushing for 101 yards and two touchdowns in a Week 5 win over Indianapolis, but struggled last week, managing just 24 yards on seven carries against the Bears.

The Jaguars are also dealing with a slew of other injuries, including defensive end Arik Armstead (shoulder), wide receiver Gabe Davis (knee), tight end Evan Engram (hamstring), and cornerback Tyson Campbell (hamstring). Each of these players’ statuses could significantly impact both sides of the ball.

Key Matchup: Maye vs. Jaguars Defense

The spotlight for Sunday’s game will be on the matchup between rookie quarterback Drake Maye and Jacksonville’s struggling defense. The Jaguars’ defensive unit, having allowed four touchdown passes to another rookie last week, will need to show resilience against Maye’s strong arm and ability to extend plays.

On the other hand, the Patriots will be hoping that Maye can continue to show progress, as his performance could be the key to unlocking a much-needed victory. Wide receiver DeMario Douglas expressed confidence in Maye’s potential, saying, “When we put it all together, I feel like we can be scary.”

What’s at Stake?

While it’s still early in the season, both teams are in desperate need of a win to stay relevant. For the Patriots, a victory could halt their downward spiral and build momentum behind Maye’s development. For the Jaguars, a loss would deepen their frustrations, especially as they face uncertainty over the health of key players.

This game, played on a global stage in London, offers both teams an opportunity to reset. With both squads dealing with injuries and inconsistency, it’s likely to be a close, hard-fought contest. As Pederson said, “First one to 20 might win the game.”

Predicted Outcome: A Defensive Struggle

Given the offensive and defensive challenges for both teams, this game could turn into a defensive battle, where field position and turnovers become crucial. The team that can limit mistakes and take advantage of its opportunities will likely come away with the victory.

Key Players to Watch

• Drake Maye (QB, Patriots): How will the rookie build on his strong debut in an international setting?
• Tank Bigsby (RB, Jaguars): If Etienne can’t play, can Bigsby step up as Jacksonville’s lead back?
• Rhamondre Stevenson (RB, Patriots): Will he be available, and how will the Patriots adjust if not?

Final Thoughts

Both the Patriots and Jaguars are fighting for more than just a win in London; they’re battling for relevance in a season that has quickly gotten away from them. The result of this game could determine how each team approaches the second half of the season, making it a crucial matchup for both franchises.