Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans Picks and Predictions December 1st 2024

Houston vs. Jacksonville Key Information

• Teams: Texans at Jaguars
• Where: EverBank Stadium Jacksonville
• Date: Sunday, December 1st
• Betting Odds HOU -232 | JAX +191 O/U 43.5

The Texans Can Win If…

At 7-5, the Texans hold a narrow lead in the AFC South, giving them a 90.9% chance of winning the division and a 92.5% chance of making the playoffs. After snapping a two-game losing streak with a 34-10 win over the Cowboys in week 11, Houston couldn’t keep the momentum going, falling 32-27 to the Titans in week 12. The Texans were favored by 8 points at home but couldn’t get the win, dropping their ATS record to 5-7 this season.

Heading into week 13, the Texans rank 12th in our NFL power rankings. They have an average scoring margin of +1.4 points per game and an O/U record of 4-7-1, with the over hitting in their last two games.

Heading into week 13, the Texans rank 19th in our offensive power rankings. They are 12th in the NFL in points per game (23.8) and 16th in yards per game (336). C.J. Stroud threw for 247 yards (20/33) and 2 touchdowns in week 12, but he also had 2 interceptions and was sacked 4 times. Joe Mixon struggled on the ground, rushing for just 22 yards on 14 carries, while Nico Collins led the team with 5 catches for 92 yards and a touchdown.

Houston ranks 15th in passing yards per game (221.4) and 20th in rushing yards per game (114.6). They are 22nd in the league in 3rd-down conversions, with a 37% success rate, and rank 23rd in red zone conversion percentage. However, they are 3rd in the NFL in 1st-quarter scoring.

In their 32-27 loss to the Titans, the Texans’ defense allowed 8 sacks and came up with 1 interception. Despite this, their defense struggled to stop the run, allowing 132 rushing yards on 33 attempts. They also gave up 237 passing yards on just 18 completions, with Tennessee averaging 9.5 yards per pass attempt. Additionally, the Texans allowed 72% of passes to be completed and finished with a 28.6% third-down conversion rate.

The Texans’ defensive front did have a good game in terms of pressure, winning the QB hit differential and the tackles for loss differential. However, their inability to stop the run and defend the big play in the passing game contributed to their overall defensive struggles in the game.

• Across Houston’s last three regular season games, their record sits at 1-2. Across this span, their ATS record sits at 2-1 to go along with an over-under mark of 2-0-1.
• Across Houston’s last ten regular season games, their record sits at 5-5. In these contests, the team went just 5-5 against the spread, while going 3-6-1 on the over-under.

The Jaguars Can Win If…

Heading into week 13, the Jaguars are looking to snap a four-game losing streak, which includes a 52-6 loss to the Lions in week 11. This leaves Jacksonville at 2-9 on the season, putting them 28th in our power rankings. We give the Jags a 0.5% chance of making the playoffs and winning the AFC South.

Jacksonville is 6-5 against the spread, with a +5-2 record as underdogs. Their O/U record is 7-4, with their games averaging 47.6 points per game.

Heading into week 13, Jacksonville ranks 24th in our offensive power rankings. They are 23rd in the NFL in points per game (18.9) and 30th in yards per game (290.8). The Jaguars are 27th in passing yards per game, with 189.2, on 30.4 attempts per game. On the ground, they rank 25th in rushing yards per game (101.6) and 28th in rushing attempts. Jacksonville is 30th in the league in 3rd-down conversion rate, converting 31.9% of their attempts, and they rank 15th in red zone conversion percentage.

Mac Jones has started the last two games for Jacksonville, throwing for 138 yards (17/29) in week 11 after a 111-yard performance in week 10. Trevor Lawrence is questionable for week 13 with a shoulder injury. Travis Etienne Jr. led the team with 27 rushing yards on 12 carries in week 11, and Brian Thomas Jr. had 5 receptions for 82 yards. The Jaguars scored just 6 points in their week 11 loss to the Lions, with only 3 points in the first half and none in the 2nd half.

In their most recent game, the Jaguars’ defense gave up 645 yards to the Lions in a 52-6 loss. They allowed Detroit to complete 81.8% of their passes for 449 yards and four touchdowns, with the Lions finding a lot of success down the field, averaging 13.6 yards per attempt. Jacksonville failed to generate any pressure, finishing with zero sacks and losing the quarterback hit battle.

On the ground, the Jaguars gave up 196 rushing yards to the Lions on 43 attempts. The Jaguars’ defense struggled to get off the field, as the Lions converted on 60% of their third down attempts.

• Over their last three regular season games, the Jaguars have gone 1-2 straight up. Across this span, their ATS record sits at 3-0 to go along with an over-under mark of 2-1.
• The Jaguars have gone 4-6 over their last ten regular season games. The team’s record vs the spread was just 5-5, in addition to an over-under mark of 5-5.

The Lean

Our point spread pick for this week 13 matchup between the Jaguars and Texans is to take the Jaguars to cover as home underdogs. The Jaguars are currently sitting at +5 point underdogs, and we have them winning and covering the spread by a score of 26-17.

For the over/under, with the line sitting at 43.5 points, we are leaning towards taking the under, with our projections pointing to a combined score of 43 points.

Texans Look to Regroup After Tough Loss

The Houston Texans (7-5) remain atop the AFC South but are coming off a frustrating 32-27 loss to the Tennessee Titans. Head coach DeMeco Ryans is focused on getting his team “locked in” to make a strong December push toward the playoffs.

“It all comes down to minor, minute details,” Ryans said. “If you don’t do them the correct way, teams find those and they make you pay. A lot of the things are things we can control.”

Houston will aim to prove that control this Sunday as they travel to Jacksonville (2-9) for a pivotal divisional matchup.

Jaguars Searching for a Spark

The Jaguars enter the game mired in a four-game losing streak, including an embarrassing 52-6 loss to the Detroit Lions last week. Head coach Doug Pederson acknowledged that his team must make adjustments, particularly in the run and passing games.

“There are things that can, hopefully, help our production over the last six weeks,” Pederson said, hinting at possible changes but avoiding specifics.

One potential spark for Jacksonville could come from quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who has been sidelined since Nov. 3 with a shoulder injury. Lawrence participated in limited practice this week, and his status for Sunday remains uncertain.

Texans’ Offensive Challenges

For the Texans, quarterback C.J. Stroud continues to face growing pains in his second NFL season. After throwing just five interceptions as a rookie, Stroud has been picked off nine times in 12 games this year, including twice in last week’s loss to Tennessee.

Despite the struggles, Stroud’s ability to make big plays has not gone unnoticed by Pederson.

“Playing the quarterback position is hard,” Pederson said. “He’s missed his playmakers from time to time. But he’s capable of hurting you.”

Stroud will need to navigate without some key teammates, as defensive ends Will Anderson Jr. (ankle) and Denico Autry (knee) missed practice this week. Safety Jalen Pitre is expected to miss multiple games due to a shoulder injury, further straining Houston’s defense.

Jaguars’ Injury Updates

The Jaguars also have their share of injury concerns. Linebacker Yasir Abdullah (hamstring) missed practice on Wednesday, and cornerback Tyson Campbell (shoulder) was limited. Lawrence’s availability remains a game-time decision.

Key Matchup: Stroud vs. Jacksonville’s Defense

This game is a chance for Houston’s offense to prove itself. Stroud will need to limit turnovers and take advantage of a Jaguars defense that has struggled at times this season.

On the other side, Jacksonville’s defensive line will look to pressure Stroud, hoping to force mistakes that can swing momentum.

First Meeting Recap

The Texans and Jaguars last faced off on Sept. 29, with Houston securing a 24-20 victory. The Texans will aim to sweep the season series and maintain their grip on the AFC South.

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Prediction

Houston’s need to rebound and Jacksonville’s desperation to find answers should make for a competitive matchup. If Stroud can stay composed and the Texans’ defense holds firm despite injuries, Houston has the edge.

Final Score Prediction: Texans 27, Jaguars 20