N.y. Jets vs Denver Broncos Picks and Predictions September 29th 2024

Jets’ Aaron Rodgers focuses on field ahead of game vs. Broncos

With the Jets favored at -357 on the money line, the Broncos and Jets will face off at 1:00 ET on Sunday, September 29th at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ. The Jets are looking to add to their record, and the Broncos are also looking to add to their record. The game is being televised on CBS, and the Jets are -7.5 point favorites, with the over/under set at 38.5 points.

Denver vs. New York Key Information

• Teams: Broncos at Jets
• Where: MetLife Stadium East Rutherford
• Date: Sunday, September 29th
• Betting Odds NYJ -357 | DEN +281 O/U 38.5

The Broncos Can Win If…

Denver is now 1-2 after their 26-7 win over the Buccaneers. The Broncos were +6 point underdogs heading into the game, giving them a comfortable cover and straight-up win. The combined 33 points fell short of the over/under line of 40.5 points. The Broncos jumped out to a 14-0 lead after the first quarter and added a touchdown in the 2nd quarter to lead 17-0 before the Buccaneers scored.

Wil Lutz added a field goal late in the 4th quarter to help secure the win. Baker Mayfield’s touchdown to Chris Godwin brought the score to 17-7. The Broncos added another touchdown in the 4th quarter, with Tyler Badie finding the endzone on a 43-yard run.

The Broncos’ offense put up 136 rushing yards on 28 attempts in their 26-7 win over the Buccaneers. They struggled on third down, converting just 30.8% of their chances, and didn’t allow a sack in the game. Bo Nix threw for 216 yards, completing 25 of 36 passes and adding 47 yards on the ground, including a rushing touchdown.

Denver didn’t find the endzone through the air in this game. Tyler Badie ran for 70 yards, averaging 7.8 yards per attempt and Courtland Sutton led the team with 68 receiving yards on seven catches.

The Broncos’ defense was dominant in their 26-7 win over the Buccaneers, not allowing a single completion in the passing game. They recorded seven sacks, limited Tampa Bay to 27.3% on third down, and gave up just 91 rushing yards on 16 attempts. The Broncos’ defense allowed only 132 yards passing, with one touchdown, and forced one interception.

Denver’s defense controlled the line of scrimmage, coming away with seven sacks and holding the Buccaneers to 91 yards rushing. In the passing game, the Broncos didn’t allow a single completion until late in the game, finishing with a 0.0% completion percentage allowed before the Buccaneers’ final attempt. They also defended 3 passes and had 7 quarterback hits.

• Over their last three regular season games, the Broncos have gone 1-2 straight up. They have held up well vs the spread in these matchups, going 2-1 as well as an over-under record of 1-2.
• The Broncos have gone 4-6 over their last ten regular season games. Their record against the spread in this stretch is 5-5 to go along with an over-under mark of 5-5.

The Jets Can Win If…

The Jets are now 2-1 after a 24-3 win over the Patriots in their most recent game. New York took an 18-point lead into the 4th quarter and never allowed New England to make a comeback. The Jets were 6.5-point favorites and with their 21-point win, they covered the spread with ease.

The 1st quarter ended with the Jets leading 7-0 after Aaron Rodgers found Allen Lazard for a 10-yard touchdown. New York added another touchdown in the 2nd quarter, and a field goal from the Patriots made it 14-3 at halftime. In the 3rd quarter, Rodgers connected with Garrett Wilson for another touchdown to put the game out of reach at 21-3.

The Jets’ offense put up 24 points in their 24-3 win over the Patriots, racking up 27 first downs and 267 yards through the air. Aaron Rodgers, who went 27/35 for 281 yards and two touchdowns, led the passing attack. New York’s running game saw 133 yards on 33 attempts, with Braelon Allen leading the way with 55 yards.

Tyler Conklin was the top receiver with 93 yards on five catches. The Jets’ offense converted on 66.7% of their third down attempts, but Rodgers was sacked twice in the game.

The Jets’ defense was dominant in their 24-3 win over the Patriots, not allowing a single completion. They also put a lot of pressure on the quarterback, with 7 sacks and 11 more QB hits than their opponents. The Patriots didn’t have much of a chance to throw the ball, as they ran just 15 times for 78 yards.

Overall, the Patriots finished with 139 yards of total offense. The Jets were excellent on third downs, allowing just an 18.2% conversion rate.

• New York will look to keep things rolling as they have put together a mark of 3-0 over their past three games. The team has also been excellent vs the spread, going 2-1. Their over-under record in these games was 2-1.
• New York has put together a record of 5-5 in their last ten games (regular season). The team’s record vs the spread was just 5-5, in addition to an over-under mark of 4-6.

The Lean

Our pick against the spread is to take the Jets to cover as 7.5-point home favorites in this week four matchup between the Jets and Broncos. We have the Jets winning by a score of 22-13.

For the over/under, with the line sitting at 38.5 points, we are leaning towards taking the under, with a projected combined score of 35 points.

Latest NFL Expert Picks

Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers is putting past controversies behind him as he prepares for Sunday’s matchup against the Denver Broncos at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J. Despite some off-field drama involving Broncos head coach Sean Payton and Jets offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, Rodgers remains laser-focused on delivering another strong performance for New York.

Old News: Rodgers Moves On from Payton’s Comments

In 2022, Hackett served as the Broncos’ head coach, but his tenure ended prematurely with a disappointing 4-11 record. When Payton took over in early 2023, he made headlines by calling Hackett’s work in Denver “one of the worst coaching jobs in the history of the NFL” during an interview with USA Today Sports. Though Payton quickly apologized for his remarks, the comment stirred tension between the two coaching staffs.

Rodgers, however, isn’t interested in revisiting the controversy. “That’s old news,” he said during an interview this week. “We’ve all said things we’d like to take back. I honestly haven’t thought about it.”

By dismissing the drama, Rodgers is making it clear that his focus is on the field, not on what happened off of it.

Jets Offense Finds Rhythm

Under Hackett’s direction, the Jets offense has started to find its rhythm. After a dominant 24-3 victory over the New England Patriots on September 19, the Jets are sitting at 2-1, with Rodgers playing a key role. In that game, Rodgers was in top form, completing 27 of 35 passes for 281 yards and two touchdowns. His ability to read defenses and execute precise throws was on full display.

Key offensive contributors like Garrett Wilson and Allen Lazard also stepped up, with both wide receivers playing significant roles in the win. However, Wilson, the Jets’ No. 1 receiver, has yet to fully hit his stride this season, failing to surpass 60 receiving yards in any game so far.

Rodgers knows that patience will be key, especially with Wilson facing an elite cornerback in Denver’s Pat Surtain II this Sunday. “We’d like to get the ball to [Wilson] early, but it’s a process,” Rodgers said. “We can’t force it. Pat’s a phenomenal player, but Garrett is too. It’s going to be a great matchup.”

Key Matchup: Garrett Wilson vs. Pat Surtain II

The duel between Garrett Wilson and Pat Surtain II promises to be one of the most exciting aspects of Sunday’s game. Surtain has been a cornerstone of the Broncos’ defense, which has allowed the sixth-fewest points per game in the NFL this season (15.3). His ability to shut down top receivers will be tested against Wilson, who is still looking for a breakout performance in 2023.

While Wilson hasn’t had a standout game yet, his chemistry with Rodgers is improving. For the Jets to exploit Denver’s defense, they’ll need Wilson to step up against Surtain and find ways to get open early in the game.

Broncos’ Defensive Resilience

Despite a 1-2 start, the Broncos’ defense has been a bright spot, particularly during last Sunday’s 26-7 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Denver’s defense held Tampa Bay to just 223 total yards, putting on a clinic of disciplined, physical football. The defense has been a backbone for the team, and they’ll need another strong performance to slow down Rodgers and the Jets.

Surtain has been the headline player for Denver’s defense, but they’ve also benefited from contributions across the roster. However, injuries to key defensive players like safety JL Skinner (ankle) could test their depth as they face a potent Jets offense.

Bo Nix: A Rookie Quarterback Under Pressure

On offense, the Broncos are still figuring things out under rookie quarterback Bo Nix, the No. 12 overall pick in this year’s draft. Nix earned his first career win last Sunday against Tampa Bay, throwing for 216 yards and rushing for 47 more, including a touchdown. Despite the win, Nix has struggled this season, with four interceptions and no touchdown passes through three games.

Nix’s development will be crucial for the Broncos moving forward, but he’s going up against a Jets defense that can be opportunistic. Mistakes like turnovers or missed opportunities could be costly if the Broncos want to keep pace with Rodgers and the Jets.

Injuries Impacting Both Teams

Injuries are also a concern for both sides. For the Jets, offensive tackle Morgan Moses (knee) and linebacker C.J. Mosley (toe) missed practice earlier this week, raising questions about their availability for Sunday. The absence of Moses could expose Rodgers to more pressure from Denver’s defensive front, while Mosley’s potential absence would weaken the Jets’ ability to stop Denver’s ground game.

For Denver, the aforementioned JL Skinner missed practice with an ankle injury, and tight end Nate Adkins (shoulder) and receiver Josh Reynolds (Achilles) were limited. Skinner’s presence in the secondary could be critical in defending Rodgers’ precise passing attack.

Game Outlook: Jets Offense vs. Broncos Defense

Sunday’s matchup between the Jets and Broncos is shaping up to be a classic battle of offense vs. defense. The Jets, led by the veteran presence of Rodgers, will look to build on their offensive momentum from their last game, while Denver will rely on its stout defense to disrupt New York’s flow.

If Rodgers can continue to play with the precision he demonstrated against New England, and if Garrett Wilson can win his individual battle against Pat Surtain II, the Jets could be poised for another strong performance. However, Denver’s defense has shown they can keep games close, and if Bo Nix can limit his mistakes, the Broncos might be able to pull off an upset.

As both teams enter Week 4, injuries, execution, and key matchups will determine the outcome of this intriguing AFC showdown.