Kansas City Chiefs vs Houston Texans Picks and Predictions December 21st 2024

Kansas City Chiefs vs Houston Texans December 21st 2024

The Texans are favored on the road with a money line of -133 as they take on the Chiefs at 1:00 ET on Saturday, December 21st. The Texans are the favorite with a -2 point spread. The game is being televised on NBC, and the over/under line is set at 40 points. The Chiefs’ money line odds are +111, but their record is missing.

Houston vs. Kansas City Key Information

With a 9-5 record, the Texans sit atop the AFC South, and our projections give them a 100% chance of winning the division and making the playoffs. Houston is 4-1 in division games and 7-2 in conference play, and they are on a two-game winning streak, including a 20-12 victory over the Dolphins in week 15. They were 2.5-point favorites in that game and covered the spread, but the 32 combined points fell short of the 46.5-point line.

Houston is 6-7-1 against the spread this season, with a +2 scoring margin. They are 4-6-1 as favorites and 2-1 as underdogs. Their O/U record is 4-9-1, with the under hitting in their last two games. Their games have averaged 44.9 points, just under their average line of 45.

Heading into week 16, the Texans rank 20th in our offensive power rankings. They are 11th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 23.4 points per game, and they’ve been strong in the 1st quarter, where they rank 5th in the league. Houston is 18th in passing yards per game (212.8) and 16th in rushing yards (111.4), with Joe Mixon leading the way on the ground.

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In week 15, C.J. Stroud threw for 131 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Dolphins, completing 18 of 26 passes. He posted a passer rating of 106, but the Texans’ offense stalled in the 4th quarter, failing to score. Mixon led the team in receiving with 5 catches for 33 yards.

The Texans’ defense was tough to run against in their 20-12 win over the Dolphins, as Miami managed just 52 yards on 19 rushing attempts. Although they allowed 172 passing yards, Houston defended the pass well, giving up just 4.3 yards per attempt. They also intercepted three passes and held Miami to a 30.8% conversion rate on third down.

Despite allowing 72.5% of passes to be completed, the Texans limited big plays and gave up just one passing touchdown. Their three sacks helped keep the pressure on Miami throughout the game.

With a 13-1 record, the Chiefs sit atop the AFC and have a 100% chance of winning the AFC West. They rank 12th in our NFL power rankings. Kansas City has won four straight games, including a 21-7 victory over the Browns in week 15. The Chiefs were 4-point favorites in that game and covered the spread, but the 28 combined points fell short of the 41-point over/under line.

Kansas City is 5-8-1 against the spread this season, with an average scoring margin of +5. Their O/U record is 6-8, with the under hitting in three consecutive games. The average O/U line in their games is 44.2 points, and they have averaged 42 points per game.

Heading into week 16, the Chiefs are 10th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 23.5 points per game. They rank 14th in total offense with 336.3 yards per game, and they are 13th in passing yards, with 224.1 per game, on 36 attempts per game. Kansas City leads the NFL in 3rd-down conversions, with a 50.8% success rate, and they are 4th in red zone attempts, but they rank 22nd in red zone touchdown percentage, converting just 14.5% of their chances.

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In week 15, Patrick Mahomes threw for 159 yards and 2 touchdowns on 19/38 passing. He had a passer rating of 78 and was not sacked. Xavier Worthy led the team with 46 receiving yards, and Kareem Hunt had 45 rushing yards on 13 carries. The Chiefs scored all 21 of their points in the first three quarters against the Browns.

In their most recent game, the Chiefs’ defense allowed just 127 passing yards on 20 completions in their 21-7 win over the Browns. They also came up with four interceptions. The Chiefs did struggle against the run, giving up 139 yards on just 21 attempts, but they held Cleveland to 3.7 yards per attempt in the passing game. Additionally, Kansas City’s defense recorded five sacks and held Cleveland to a 33.3% conversion rate on third down.

Our pick vs. the spread is to take the Texans to cover as road favorites in this week 16 matchup between the Chiefs and Texans. The point spread lines have the Texans at -2, and we actually have them winning this game 27-20.

As for the over/under line, with the line sitting at 40 points, we are leaning towards taking the over, with a projected combined score of 47 points.

Patrick Mahomes Determined to Play Despite Ankle Injury

Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is determined to suit up on Saturday when Kansas City hosts the Houston Texans, despite suffering a high right ankle sprain during Sunday’s victory over the Cleveland Browns. Mahomes participated fully in Tuesday’s practice, offering hope to fans and teammates alike. However, his availability remains a game-time decision.

“That’s the reason you play this game, to push to play,” Mahomes shared. “But at the end of the day, I’m not going to put our team in a bad position. If I feel I can go out there and win a football game, I’ll play. If not, I’ll let Carson (Wentz) handle it.”

Mahomes’ optimism is fueled by significant progress through treatment, yet the Chiefs remain cautious. With the AFC West already clinched and a two-game lead over the Buffalo Bills for the top AFC seed, there’s no urgency to rush him back.

A Team Balancing Competitiveness with Caution

While Mahomes wants to play, he acknowledged the team’s strong position.

“We’ve put ourselves in a good spot where it’s not dire that I play,” he said. “We have a little bit of room to spare, but I’m a competitor, and I want to go out there. It’s just about pushing it this week and making the best decision.”

Backup quarterback Carson Wentz is ready to step in if needed. The Chiefs are prepared for all scenarios to maintain momentum toward the playoffs.

Texans Aiming to Spoil the Party

The Houston Texans have their playoff berth locked in and are focused on building momentum. With a second consecutive AFC South crown already secured, head coach DeMeco Ryans insists that his team isn’t taking the foot off the gas.

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“Even though we’ve clinched, it doesn’t change our approach,” Ryans explained. “We’re still trying to improve as a football team and play our best ball heading into the playoffs.”

Quarterback C.J. Stroud has been consistent, throwing three touchdowns with no interceptions in the last two games. However, the Texans’ ground game, led by Joe Mixon, struggled against Miami, which could spell trouble against Kansas City’s defense.

Injury Updates for Both Teams

Kansas City is monitoring key injuries, including tackle D.J. Humphries (hamstring) and defensive back Chamarri Conner (concussion). Wide receiver Marquise “Hollywood” Brown, nearing a return from injured reserve, fully participated in Tuesday’s practice.

Meanwhile, Houston’s injury list includes defensive tackle Foley Fatukasi (ankle), receiver John Metchie III (shoulder), and linebacker Del’Shawn Phillips (foot). These absences could challenge the Texans’ depth.

The showdown between the Chiefs and Texans could hinge on Mahomes’ availability, but both teams are focused on making a statement as the postseason looms.