Kansas City Chiefs vs Houston Texans Picks and Predictions January 18th 2025

Kansas City Chiefs vs Houston Texans January 18th 2025

ABC is set to televise this AFC matchup between the Texans and Chiefs, which kicks off at 4:30 ET on Saturday, January 18th. The Chiefs are heavily favored with a money line of -472, and the point spread is -8 in favor of the Chiefs. The game is being played at Arrowhead Stadium, and the over/under line is at 41.5 points.

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Houston vs. Kansas City Key Information

After finishing the regular season 10-7, the Texans entered the playoffs as the 4th seed in the AFC. They went 5-1 in division games and 9-4 in conference play, which was enough to win the AFC South. Houston ranked 16th in our power rankings heading into the postseason.

Against the spread, the Texans were 8-9-1 this year, with an average scoring margin of +1.1 points per game. They were 4-6-1 as favorites and 4-3 as underdogs. Their O/U record was 7-10-1, with their games averaging 43.8 points compared to a 44.3-point line.

Our offensive power rankings have the Texans sitting at 20th. They are 15th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 22.4, and rank 18th in total yards per game with 325.8. Houston is 9th in passing attempts but 20th in passing yards per game, averaging 210.4. On the ground, they are 21st in rushing attempts and 14th in rushing yards per game, with 115.4.

In the Wild Card round, Houston scored 32 points against the Chargers, with 12 coming in the 4th quarter. C.J. Stroud threw for 282 yards, completing 22 of 33 passes, with one touchdown and one interception. Joe Mixon rushed for 106 yards on 25 carries, while Nico Collins had 7 receptions for 122 yards.

The Texans’ defense was dominant in their 32-12 win over the Chargers, coming up with four interceptions and holding them to just 12% on third down. They also pressured the quarterback effectively, with four sacks and winning the quarterback hit battle by +4. Houston allowed just 50 rushing yards on 18 attempts and gave up only 211 passing yards. The Texans’ defense limited the Chargers to 261 total yards.

The Chiefs finished the regular season 15-2, putting them first in the AFC. They went 5-1 in division games and 10-2 in conference play. Kansas City was undefeated at home (8-0) and 7-2 on the road. In our power rankings, they were 6th heading into week 2.

KC has an average scoring margin of +3.5 points per game and is 7-9-1 against the spread. They are 6-7-1 as favorites and 1-2 as underdogs. Their O/U record is 7-10, with the under hitting in two straight games. Their games have averaged 41.8 points, compared to an average line of 44.

Our offensive power rankings have the Chiefs at 8th heading into the divisional round. They are 14th in the NFL in points per game (22.6) and 16th in yards per game (327.6). Kansas City ranks 6th in passing attempts, with 35.3 per game, and 13th in passing yards, averaging 222.4. On the ground, they sit 16th in rushing attempts and 22nd in rushing yards, with 105.3 per game. The Chiefs have been strong on 3rd down, converting 48.5% of their attempts, which ranks 2nd in the league, but they are 23rd in red zone conversion percentage.

In week 18, the Chiefs were shut out by the Broncos, with Carson Wentz throwing for 98 yards on 10/17 passing and taking 4 sacks. Kansas City managed just 27 rushing yards on 11 attempts, with Carson Steele leading the way with 25 yards on 8 carries. Nikko Remigio had 2 catches for 48 yards to lead the team in receiving.

In their 38-0 loss to the Broncos, the Chiefs’ defense gave up 479 yards and allowed four passing touchdowns. They struggled to defend the pass, as Denver completed 89.7% of their passes for 321 yards. Kansas City failed to generate any pressure, finishing with zero sacks. Additionally, the Chiefs’ defense had a tough time getting off the field, allowing the Broncos to convert 71.4% of their third downs.

On the ground, the Chiefs gave up 158 rushing yards on 43 attempts. They also lost the tackles for loss battle, finishing with a -3 differential.

• The Chiefs have posted a 3-0 record in their previous three games. Across these games, they have put together an ATS mark of 1-2 as well as an over-under record of 1-2.
• Through their last ten regular season contests, Kansas City has a record of 10-0. Across these games, their ATS record was just 5-5, while posting an over-under record of 4-5-1.

Our pick vs. the spread is to take the Texans to cover as road underdogs. Even though the point spread has the Chiefs at -8, we have the Texans pulling off the upset by a score of 25-23. This is a great opportunity to take the Texans to cover.

For the over/under line, we are leaning towards taking the over, with a projected combined score of 48 points. The current O/U line is just 41.5 points, making the over a really good value pick for this matchup.

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Chiefs Begin Historic Three-Peat Pursuit Against Texans

The Kansas City Chiefs are ready to embark on their quest for an unprecedented third consecutive Super Bowl title, kicking off their playoff run Saturday against the Houston Texans in the AFC Divisional Round.

While the top-seeded Chiefs (15-2) used their bye week to rest and prepare, the fifth-seeded Texans (10-7) steamrolled the Los Angeles Chargers 32-12 in the wild-card round behind a dominant defensive performance.

“Every year is a new challenge,” Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones said. “Every year is a new opportunity to go and achieve the ultimate goal, and that’s to win a championship.”

Texans Defense Keyed Wild-Card Blowout

Houston’s defense stole the show in its wild-card victory, forcing four Justin Herbert interceptions and tallying five sacks. Will Anderson Jr. and Mario Edwards Jr. each notched 1.5 sacks, while Derek Stingley Jr. had two interceptions and Eric Murray returned a pick 38 yards for a touchdown.

“We try to say there’s no such thing as a 50/50 ball,” Texans defensive coordinator Matt Burke said. “That’s our ball when it’s in the air.”

Week 16 Rematch: Chiefs Held Off Texans

This will be the second meeting between these teams in a month. In Week 16, the Texans led in the second quarter before Kansas City rallied for a 27-19 win. A missed extra point in the third quarter proved costly for Houston.

Patrick Mahomes threw for a touchdown and ran for another on a sore ankle, while C.J. Stroud passed for two TDs but was intercepted twice.

Texans linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair, who missed that game due to suspension, is looking forward to facing Mahomes.

“I think it’s going to be a great competition,” Al-Shaair said. “Obviously, his resume speaks for itself. Just to be out there with the best of the best, that’s what you play the game for.”

Mahomes Eyes More Playoff History

Mahomes boasts an undefeated 6-0 record in the divisional round and could tie Joe Montana (16 wins) for second-most all-time playoff victories by a quarterback. Only Tom Brady (35) has more.

With five touchdown passes, Mahomes would also pass Aaron Rodgers (45), Montana (45), and Brett Favre (44) for second on the all-time postseason TD list.

Mahomes and his wife welcomed their third child this week, but his focus remains on the Chiefs’ championship mission. He even changed his social media profile picture to his Super Bowl rings, a subtle message that he’s locked in.

Texans Chasing Franchise First

Houston is playing in its sixth divisional round game but has never reached the AFC Championship Game. The franchise’s closest call came in 2019, when the Texans led the Chiefs 24-0 before surrendering 41 unanswered points in a stunning 51-31 loss.

The Chiefs also have a history of playoff dominance over Houston, including a 30-0 wild-card rout in 2015.

Top NFL Picks for the Week! See our expert NFL football picks this week.

Injury Report & Key Matchups

• Texans RB Joe Mixon (ankle) and TE Dalton Schultz (shoulder) were limited in practice. Mixon had 106 rushing yards and a TD last week.
• LB Azeez Al-Shaair (knee) is expected to play despite missing practice time.
• Chris Jones (calf), who missed the final three regular-season games, will return for the Chiefs.
• Mahomes vs. Texans Secondary: Can Houston force turnovers again? Stingley and company will need another big game to slow Mahomes.
• Stroud vs. Chiefs Defense: Stroud has been elite in his rookie year, but Kansas City’s defense ranks second in the NFL in points allowed (17.3 per game).
• Travis Kelce vs. Texans Linebackers: The Chiefs’ top target is always a playoff nightmare for opposing defenses.

Bottom Line

The Chiefs have the playoff pedigree, but the Texans have the momentum. Stroud has played beyond his years, and Houston’s defense has been opportunistic. However, Mahomes has never lost a divisional-round game and will be playing in his 19th career postseason contest—as many as Houston’s entire franchise history.

Kansas City will look to overcome Houston’s defensive pressure and lean on its championship experience to move one step closer to history.