Las Vegas Raiders vs Atlanta Falcons Picks and Predictions December 16th 2024

Las Vegas Raiders vs Atlanta Falcons December 16th 2024

The Falcons are favored on the road as they take on the Raiders at 8:30 ET on Monday, December 16th. The Falcons’ money line odds are -227, while the Raiders are at +185. The game is being televised on ESPN, and the Falcons are -4.5 point favorites, with the over/under line set at 44 points.

Atlanta vs. Las Vegas Key Information

• Teams: Falcons at Raiders
• Where: Allegiant Stadium Las Vegas
• Date: Monday, December 16th
• Betting Odds ATL -227 | LV +185 O/U 44

The Falcons Can Win If…

The Falcons have now dropped four straight games, including a 42-21 loss to the Vikings in week 14. This losing streak has brought their record to 6-7, putting them 2nd in the NFC South. Despite their recent struggles, Atlanta is 4-1 in division games and 6-3 in conference play. Our projections give them a 30.6% chance of making the playoffs and a 26.0% chance of winning the division.

Against the spread, the Falcons are 5-8 this season and have failed to cover in four consecutive games. They are 4-4 ATS as favorites and 1-4 as underdogs. Their O/U record is 5-8, with their games averaging 47 points compared to an average line of 46.5.

Heading into week 15, the Falcons rank 13th in our offensive power rankings. They are 17th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 21.4 points per game, and they rank 8th in total yards with 371 per game. Atlanta has been strong in the passing game, ranking 2nd in the league with 250.2 passing yards per game on 34 attempts per contest. On the ground, they average 120.8 rushing yards per game, ranking 12th in the NFL, on 27.6 attempts per game.

Kirk Cousins threw for 344 yards in week 14, completing 23 of 37 passes, but he also threw 2 interceptions and did not have a touchdown pass. Bijan Robinson rushed for 92 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries, while Darnell Mooney led the team with 6 catches for 142 yards. The Falcons scored 21 points in their week 14 loss to the Vikings, with 11 of those points coming in the 3rd quarter.

In their 42-21 loss to the Vikings, the Falcons’ defense allowed 318 passing yards on just 22 completions, giving up five passing touchdowns. Opposing quarterbacks completed 78.6% of their passes against Atlanta, and the Falcons struggled on third downs, allowing a 66.7% conversion rate. Despite this, they did manage to come away with four sacks in the game.

The Falcons’ run defense gave up 115 yards on 24 attempts, with Minnesota finding a lot of success in the passing game, averaging 11.4 yards per attempt. Atlanta’s defense will need to make significant improvements in coverage and defending the big play in the passing game moving forward.

• Over their last three regular season games, the Falcons have gone 0-3 straight up. Across these games, their ATS record was just 0-3, while posting an over-under record of 1-2.
• Atlanta has put together a record of 5-5 in their last ten games (regular season). Against the spread, Atlanta went 4-6 in these games and finished with an over-under mark of 5-5.

The Raiders Can Win If…

Heading into week 15, the Raiders are looking to snap a nine-game losing streak, which includes a 28-13 loss to the Buccaneers in week 14. This puts Las Vegas at 2-11 on the season, and they currently sit 25th in our NFL power rankings. The Raiders have been eliminated from playoff contention and have a -9.6 average scoring margin.

Las Vegas is 5-8 against the spread this season, with all five of their ATS wins coming as underdogs. Their O/U record is 8-5, with the under hitting in their last two games.

Heading into week 15, the Raiders rank 32nd in our offensive power rankings. They are 25th in both points per game (18.2) and yards per game (303). Despite ranking 4th in passing attempts, they are 16th in passing yards per game, with 223.9. On the ground, they are 29th in rushing attempts and last in rushing yards per game, averaging 79.1.

Las Vegas has struggled on 3rd down, converting just 34.3% of their attempts, which ranks 26th in the NFL. However, they have been efficient in the red zone, ranking 4th with a 54.3% conversion rate. In week 14, they scored only 13 points, with 3 coming in the 4th quarter, and Aidan O’Connell threw for 104 yards and an interception before leaving with a knee injury.

In their 28-13 loss to the Buccaneers, the Raiders’ defense allowed 420 yards and struggled to stop the run, giving up 152 rushing yards on just 26 attempts. They did manage to force two interceptions and recorded four sacks. However, the Raiders allowed three passing touchdowns and 268 yards through the air, with Tampa Bay averaging 9.2 yards per passing attempt.

The Raiders also struggled on third down, allowing the Buccaneers to convert 41.7% of their third-down attempts. Despite the four sacks, Las Vegas allowed Tampa Bay to complete 62.1% of their passes.

• Through their last three regular season contests, Las Vegas has a record of 0-3. This includes going 1-2 vs. the spread along with an over-under mark of 3-0.
• Through their last ten regular season contests, Las Vegas has a record of 4-6. Across these games, their ATS record was just 5-4-1, while posting an over-under record of 7-3.

The Lean

Our pick vs. the spread is to take the Raiders to cover as home underdogs. Currently, the point spread lines have the Raiders at +4.5, and we have the Falcons winning this week 21-18. As for the over/under lines, with the line sitting at 44 points, we have a slight lean towards the under, projecting a combined score of 39 points.

With the point spread lines having the Falcons at -4.5, we are going against the spread pick and taking the Raiders to cover. However, with the Falcons coming out on top, our pick is to take the Raiders to cover at home.