Los Angeles Chargers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Picks and Predictions December 15th 2024

Los Angeles Chargers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers December 15th 2024

The Chargers are favored on the money line at -158 as they host the Buccaneers at 4:25 ET on Sunday, December 15th at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA. The Chargers are -3 point favorites on the point spread, and the over/under line is 46.5 points. This week 15 non-conference matchup is being televised on FOX.

Tampa Bay vs. Los Angeles Key Information

• Teams: Buccaneers at Chargers
• Where: SoFi Stadium Inglewood
• Date: Sunday, December 15th
• Betting Odds LAC -158 | TB +133 O/U 46.5

The Buccaneers Can Win If…

With three straight wins, the Buccaneers now sit at 7-6, putting them atop the NFC South. After a week 10 loss to the 49ers, Tampa Bay has bounced back with victories over the Giants (30-7 in week 12), Panthers (26-23 in week 13), and Raiders (28-13 in week 14). The Bucs covered the spread against Las Vegas, winning by 15 points as 6.5-point favorites.

Our power rankings have the Bucs 10th heading into week 15, and they have a 76% chance of making the playoffs and a 73.9% chance of winning the division. Tampa Bay has a +4.2 scoring margin and is 8-5 against the spread this season. Their O/U record is also 8-5, with their games averaging 51.7 points (45.4 O/U line).

Heading into week 15, the Buccaneers are 9th in our offensive power rankings. They are 5th in the NFL in points per game (27.9) and 3rd in yards per game (379.3). Tampa Bay has been strong on 3rd down, converting 47.2% of their attempts, which ranks 2nd in the league. They also lead the NFL in 1st-quarter scoring, averaging 7.5 points.

Baker Mayfield threw for 295 yards and 3 touchdowns in week 14, despite 2 interceptions and 4 sacks. Rachaad White had 90 rushing yards on 17 carries, while Cade Otton led the team with 70 receiving yards. Tampa Bay scored 14 points in both the 1st and 4th quarters in their win over the Raiders.

In their 28-13 win over the Raiders, Tampa Bay’s defense was impressive, allowing just 195 passing yards and forcing the Raiders to a 62.2% completion percentage. They didn’t give up any passing touchdowns and limited the Raiders to 30.8% on third down conversions. The Buccaneers defended the run well, allowing only 91 yards on 25 attempts.

Despite allowing two sacks and losing the QB hit differential, the Buccaneers held the Raiders to just 13 points and 286 total yards. Tampa Bay’s defense was particularly effective in limiting big plays, as the Raiders averaged only 5.3 yards per pass attempt.

• Tampa Bay has put together a record of 3-0 over their past three games. Against the spread, the team is 2-1 in these same games while going 1-2 on the over/under.
• Over their last ten regular season games, the Buccaneers have gone 5-5 straight up. The team’s record vs the spread was just 6-4, in addition to an over-under mark of 7-3.

The Chargers Can Win If…

After a week 13 win over the Falcons, the Chargers couldn’t keep the momentum going, falling 19-17 to the Chiefs in week 14. Despite the loss, they managed to cover the 4.5-point spread, leaving them at 9-3-1 ATS this season. They’ve been especially strong as favorites, going 8-1 ATS in those games.

Heading into week 15, the Chargers have a 90.5% chance of making the playoffs, but they’re out of the division race. They currently rank 13th in our power rankings. Their O/U record is 4-9, with the under hitting in their last two games.

Heading into week 15, the Chargers sit 15th in our offensive power rankings. They are 18th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 21.3, and 24th in passing yards per game with 198.1, despite ranking 29th in passing attempts. On the ground, they rank 19th in rushing yards per game, with 111.5, on 27.1 attempts per game. Los Angeles ranks 14th in the league in 3rd-down conversions, with a 38.4% success rate, and 7th in red zone conversion percentage.

Justin Herbert threw for 213 yards and a touchdown in week 14, completing 21 of 30 passes. Joshua Palmer led the team with 78 receiving yards, while Gus Edwards rushed for 36 yards and a touchdown. The Chargers scored 14 points in the 3rd quarter against Kansas City but were held to just 3 points in the 4th.

In the Chargers’ 19-17 loss to the Chiefs, the Chargers’ defense allowed 202 passing yards and 96 rushing yards on 25 attempts (3.8 yards per attempt). They defended the pass well, allowing just 5.5 yards per attempt and forcing the Chiefs to convert on only 33.3% of their third down attempts. Los Angeles also recorded three sacks and held Kansas City to 19 points.

Despite their efforts, the Chargers couldn’t come up with a win. Offensively, they managed just 17 points. The Chargers’ defense also won the QB hit differential, with six more hits on the quarterback, but they did lose the tackles for loss differential.

• The Chargers have posted a 2-1 record in their previous three games. The team has also been excellent vs the spread, going 2-1. Their over-under record in these games was 3-0.
• The Chargers have gone 4-6 over their last ten regular season games. In these contests, the team went just 5-4-1 against the spread, while going 4-6 on the over-under.

The Lean

With the line sitting at 46.5 points, our pick is to take the over, as we are projecting a combined score of 47 points in this week 15 matchup between the Buccaneers and Chargers.

As for a point-spread pick, we have the Buccaneers coming out on top by a score of 27-20. With the Chargers being the home team, our pick vs. the spread is to take the Buccaneers to cover as road underdogs.

Chargers, Bucs Fight to Secure Playoff Positions

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6) visit the Los Angeles Chargers (8-5) in a high-stakes matchup with playoff implications for both teams. As the Buccaneers aim to maintain their NFC South lead, the Chargers look to solidify their hold on an AFC wild-card spot.

Chargers’ Defense Faces a Test

Los Angeles boasts the NFL’s top-ranked scoring defense, allowing only 15.9 points per game. This unit has been consistent, holding opponents to 20 points or fewer in 11 of their 13 games. However, the defense faces a potent Buccaneers offense, ranked fifth in the league in scoring at 27.9 points per game.

Injuries could complicate matters for the Chargers, as quarterback Justin Herbert is nursing an ankle injury and a leg contusion. Herbert did not practice Wednesday, and his status for Sunday remains uncertain. Head coach Jim Harbaugh expressed confidence in Herbert’s resilience:
“I know this: He will be doing anything and everything in his power to play on Sunday.”

Despite Herbert’s injury, rookie wide receiver Ladd McConkey is expected to return from a knee issue, while tight end Will Dissly (shoulder) and linebacker Joey Bosa (hip) are likely to miss the game.

Buccaneers’ Offense and Injury Concerns

Tampa Bay’s offense is led by quarterback Baker Mayfield, who is tied for third in the league with 28 touchdown passes. The team has leaned heavily on a dynamic rushing attack, featuring rookie Bucky Irving and Rachaad White. However, Irving left last week’s 28-13 victory over the Las Vegas Raiders with a hip and back injury and is questionable for Sunday.

Head coach Todd Bowles emphasized ball security after Mayfield’s two interceptions and lost fumble last week:
“We have to understand, especially when we’re in the red zone, we can’t turn it over. That’s No. 1.”

Safety Antoine Winfield Jr. (knee) is expected to miss multiple weeks, adding to the Buccaneers’ defensive challenges. Other injuries include guard Ben Bredeson (shoulder) and wide receiver Mike Evans (hamstring), both of whom missed Wednesday’s practice.

Key Matchup: Buccaneers’ Offense vs. Chargers’ Defense

This game pits the high-scoring Buccaneers against the Chargers’ stingy defense. Mayfield’s ability to exploit Los Angeles’ secondary will be crucial, especially if Herbert is limited or unavailable. On the flip side, the Chargers will need to capitalize on Tampa Bay’s injuries and turnovers to maintain their defensive dominance.

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Playoff Implications

For Tampa Bay, a win would solidify their NFC South lead, while the Chargers must protect their AFC wild-card spot. With four weeks left in the regular season, this matchup carries significant weight for both teams’ playoff aspirations.