Minnesota Vikings vs Atlanta Falcons Picks and Predictions December 8th 2024

Minnesota Vikings vs Atlanta Falcons December 8th 2024

With the Falcons at +190 on the money line and the Vikings at -228, this week 14 NFC matchup will see the Vikings as the favorite. The game, set for 1:00 ET on Sunday, December 8th at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, MN, will be aired on FOX. The Vikings are favored by -5 points, and the over/under line is set at 46 points.

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Atlanta vs. Minnesota Key Information

• Teams: Falcons at Vikings
• Where: U.S. Bank Stadium Minneapolis
• Date: Sunday, December 8th
• Betting Odds MIN -228 | ATL +190 O/U 46

The Falcons Can Win If…

After three straight losses, the Falcons are now 6-6, but they still hold the top spot in the NFC South thanks to their 4-1 division record. Atlanta is 6-2 in conference games, including a 27-21 win over the Cowboys in week 9. Since then, they’ve lost to the Saints, Broncos, and Chargers, most recently falling 17-13 to Los Angeles in week 13.

According to our projections, the Falcons have a 52.5% chance of making the playoffs and a 49.2% chance of winning the division. They rank 18th in our power rankings heading into week 14. Atlanta is 5-7 against the spread this season and has an average scoring margin of -2.8 points per game. Their O/U record is 4-8, with the under hitting in four straight games.

Heading into week 14, the Falcons rank 13th in our offensive power rankings. They are 18th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 21.4 points per game, but they rank 8th in total yards, with 360.6 per game. Atlanta’s passing attack ranks 4th in the league, with 242.8 yards per game on 33.8 attempts per contest. On the ground, they average 117.8 rushing yards per game, ranking 14th in the NFL.

In week 13, the Falcons struggled on 3rd down, converting just 3 of 14 attempts, and they scored only once in 4 red zone trips. Kirk Cousins threw for 245 yards but had 4 interceptions. Bijan Robinson rushed for 102 yards on 26 carries, while Ray-Ray McCloud III led the team with 95 receiving yards on 4 catches.

Despite their defensive effort, the Falcons lost 17-13 to the Chargers in their most recent game. The Falcons’ defense held the Chargers to just 131 passing yards on 17 completions. They also allowed just 56 rushing yards on 17 attempts. Atlanta’s defense recorded five sacks and limited the Chargers to a 27.3% conversion rate on third down.

However, the Falcons’ offense struggled, and the team lost despite allowing only 187 total yards. The Falcons’ defense also won the quarterback hit differential, with a +4 compared to the Chargers.

• The Falcons have gone 0-3 over their last three regular season games. In these matchups, they ended with an ATS record of 0-3 and an over-under mark of 0-3.
• Across Atlanta’s last ten regular season games, their record sits at 5-5. Against the spread, Atlanta went 4-6 in these games and finished with an over-under mark of 4-6.

The Vikings Can Win If…

With a 10-2 record, the Vikings have a 99.8% chance of making the playoffs, but our projections give them just a 10% chance of winning the NFC North. Minnesota is currently 2-1 in division games and ranks 5th in the NFC. They are 7th in our power rankings heading into week 14.

The Vikings have won five straight games, including a narrow 23-22 victory over the Cardinals in week 13. They couldn’t cover the 3.5-point spread in that game, bringing their ATS record to 7-4-1. They are 4-4-1 as favorites and 3-0 as underdogs. Their O/U record is 4-8, with their games averaging 43 points compared to a line of 44.4.

Sam Darnold has been efficient over his last three games, posting passer ratings of 111 in week 13, 116 in week 12, and 107 in week 11. Against the Cardinals in week 13, he threw for 235 yards and 2 touchdowns, completing 21 of 31 passes without an interception. However, the Vikings struggled on third down, converting only 1 of 8 attempts. Justin Jefferson led the team with 7 receptions for 99 yards.

Heading into week 14, the Vikings rank 11th in our offensive power rankings. They are 8th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 24.8, and lead the league in first-quarter scoring. Minnesota ranks 13th in passing yards per game (231.6) and 17th in rushing, averaging 113 yards per game.

Despite allowing 154 rushing yards on 31 attempts, the Vikings’ defense came up big in their most recent game, intercepting two passes and holding the Cardinals to just a 38.5% conversion rate on third down. Minnesota gave up 406 total yards but managed to pull out a 23-22 victory, with Arizona averaging 5 yards per rushing attempt.

Against the pass, the Vikings gave up 252 yards and allowed one touchdown. They finished with one sack and lost the tackles for loss battle by a margin of -1. Opposing quarterbacks completed 68.9% of their passes against Minnesota.

• Minnesota will look to keep things rolling as they have put together a mark of 2-1 over their past three games. Across these games, they have put together an ATS mark of 1-2 as well as an over-under record of 1-2.
• Minnesota has put together a record of 6-4 in their last ten games (regular season). Against the spread, Minnesota went 5-5 in these games and finished with an over-under mark of 4-6.

The Lean

Our pick vs. the spread is to take the Falcons to cover as road underdogs in this week 14 matchup between the Vikings and Falcons. Even though the Vikings are the favorite at -5, we have the Falcons pulling off the upset by a score of 24-22.

As for the over/under, we have a line of 46 points, and with our projections having this game finishing 24-22 in favor of the Falcons, we like the over for this matchup.

Expert NFL Picks

Kirk Cousins Returns to Minnesota as Falcons Face Red-Hot Vikings

Kirk Cousins, now leading the Atlanta Falcons, is set for an emotional return to Minneapolis this Sunday. The former fan-favorite quarterback of the Minnesota Vikings faces his old team in a game brimming with storylines, high stakes, and contrasting team trajectories.

As the Falcons (6-6) aim to break their three-game losing streak, the Vikings (10-2) look to extend their winning run to six games. Here’s everything to know about this much-anticipated clash.

A Nostalgic Homecoming for Kirk Cousins

After six seasons with the Vikings, Cousins left Minnesota in March as a free agent, signing with the Falcons. Once cheered by the passionate Minnesota crowd, Cousins is now bracing for a chilly reception.

“They’re great football fans,” Cousins remarked. “I would think they’ll make it as hostile as they can for us. It’s a great fanbase.”

Cousins’ performance this season has been underwhelming. With 3,052 passing yards, 17 touchdowns, and a league-high 13 interceptions, his 90.8 passer rating reflects inconsistency. Last week’s dismal outing against the Los Angeles Chargers, where he threw four interceptions and posted a 40.0 passer rating, highlights the uphill battle he faces.

For Cousins, Sunday isn’t just about winning but proving resilience. “Tough times don’t last, tough people do,” he said.

Vikings Flourish Post-Cousins

The Vikings have thrived since Cousins’ departure, fueled by a resurgent Sam Darnold under head coach Kevin O’Connell. Darnold’s impressive season includes 2,952 passing yards, 23 touchdowns, and a 102.5 passer rating.

Minnesota’s offense hasn’t missed a beat, led by star receiver Justin Jefferson. Jefferson surpassed the 1,000-yard mark for the fifth consecutive season last week, cementing his place as one of the league’s top wideouts.

Coach O’Connell credits the team’s success to balance and determination. “We’ve shown grit in close games, and our defense has been phenomenal under Brian Flores,” he said.

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Contrasting Team Trajectories

• Vikings (10-2): Riding a five-game winning streak, Minnesota has edged out narrow victories, including a thrilling overtime win against the Chicago Bears and a 23-22 rally over the Arizona Cardinals.
• Falcons (6-6): Atlanta’s recent losses to the Saints, Broncos, and Chargers have dropped them into a tie with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers atop the NFC South.

The Vikings’ dominance stems from their defensive prowess, while the Falcons’ inability to generate consistent pressure has exposed their weaknesses.

Key Matchups to Watch

1. Quarterbacks: Sam Darnold vs. Kirk Cousins

Darnold has outperformed Cousins in nearly every metric this season. While Darnold has thrived in O’Connell’s system, Cousins has struggled to adapt in Atlanta, making turnovers a pressing concern for the Falcons.

2. Justin Jefferson vs. Falcons’ Secondary

Jefferson’s explosive playmaking will be a nightmare for Atlanta’s defense. He’s amassed 1,007 receiving yards and five touchdowns this season, making him Darnold’s go-to target.

3. Defensive Line Dominance

Minnesota’s defensive front, led by Jonathan Greenard (10 sacks), Andrew Van Ginkel (9 sacks), and Patrick Jones II (7 sacks), has racked up 39 sacks this season. In stark contrast, Atlanta has only 15, with Arnold Ebiketie leading the team with three.

Falcons’ X-Factor: Bijan Robinson

Atlanta’s rookie running back Bijan Robinson is a bright spot in an otherwise inconsistent offense. Robinson has racked up 1,277 yards from scrimmage and eight touchdowns (seven rushing, one receiving). For the Falcons to succeed, Robinson needs to shine against Minnesota’s aggressive defense.

Quotes That Set the Stage

Shaquill Griffin, a key player in Minnesota’s secondary, playfully commented on facing Cousins:
“If he throws me the ball, I’ll feel great. Or maybe it’ll be Byron Murphy, Harrison Smith, or Josh Metellus. Just throw it to somebody on defense, and I’ll be fairly happy.”

Cousins, however, remains focused. “This league and my journey always kick you down, but you’ve got to get back up,” he said.

What’s at Stake?

• For the Falcons: Breaking their losing streak is critical to keeping their NFC South playoff hopes alive.
• For the Vikings: A win could help them secure first place in the NFC North as they chase the Detroit Lions.

Predictions and Outlook

The Vikings enter as heavy favorites, with their balanced offense and dominant defense likely overwhelming Atlanta. For the Falcons to pull off an upset, Cousins must deliver a flawless performance, while Robinson and London must step up.

Final Thoughts
Kirk Cousins’ return to Minnesota adds an emotional layer to this already compelling matchup. Can the former Vikings star find redemption in his old stomping ground, or will Minnesota continue its march toward the playoffs?

The answers will unfold on Sunday, and fans won’t want to miss a moment.